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Published online by Cambridge University Press: 03 March 2004
Elections and Democratization in Ukraine represents a valuable contribution to our understanding of the dynamics of party systems development in postcommunist politics. Unlike many volumes that rely on largely anecdotal evidence and narrative, this book is extremely well organized and systematic. There is a clear theoretical structure, and systematic evidence is employed to test specific hypotheses. Using some of the classic works on the development of party systems and relations between parties and voters to provide a theoretical framework, the author derives a set of hypotheses about characteristics that might affect voter choices over time.
The empirical scope of the study is quite impressive, covering elections from 1989 to 1998, including the referenda on the fate of the USSR and on Ukrainian independence, as well as two parliamentary and two Presidential contests. Data were collected from the Archives of the Supreme Rada of the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic, archives of individual regions in Ukraine and the Crimean Republic, and local newspapers. In addition, the book relies heavily on extensive fieldwork, particularly data derived from a March 1998 voter survey.
The author's central question is, What forms long-term electoral cleavages in postcommunist Ukraine? In answering this question she argues that, contrary to the currently popular claim that the Soviet Union left in its wake an atomized society with weak social divisions, the Ukrainian electorate has, from the advent of competitive elections, exhibited a relatively stable sociogeographic cleavage structure, a structure which can be explained by social cleavage patterns that developed in the Soviet period.
In particular, the author emphasizes the importance and persistence of regionalism in post-Soviet Ukrainian politics She divides the country into five regions—“West,” “Right Bank” and “Left Bank” of the Dniepr, “South,” and “East.” She convincingly demonstrates continuing, strong support for nationalist parties, candidates, and positions in the West. On the other hand, voters in the South and East have tended to back parties of the “left”—communists, socialists, and agrarian socialists. In addition to the regional cleavage, there have been continued (although slightly declining) ethnic bases for electoral support of the Ukrainian political parties. Indeed, she shows that, over the years, proponents of statehood and Ukrainian nationalism have drawn largely from ethnic Ukrainian supporters, whereas opponents are derived mainly from Russian speakers or are of Russian descent. Further, religious factors also help define political cleavages in post-Soviet Ukraine, where the highest level of nationalist support is found among Ukrainian-Rite Catholics and Ukrainian Autocephalous Orthodox believers, whereas adherents of the Russian-affiliated churches (the Ukrainian Orthodox Church–Moscow Patriarchate and the Russian Orthodox Church) tend to support the Left parties. These ethnic, regional, and religious cleavages have remained remarkably stable over time, contributing to continued debate within Ukraine over the nature of the state. A somewhat less salient cleavage structure (although increasingly important) exists concerning the nature of the economic system, which manifested itself particularly after the parliamentary election of 1998.
One of the more interesting findings of the book is that there appears to be little evidence to suggest that the underlying cleavage structure has molded itself closely to that of the party system. In other words, despite the existence of fairly stable patterns of sociopolitical cleavages, these are not matched by parties that represent these patterns of political cleavages. Indeed the parties in the Ukraine are largely conglomerations of shifting coalitions of personalities, without strong attachments to particular social constituencies (a pattern of development which is not unlike that in many other postcommunist states, such as Russia). In part, the author suggests that the evolution of the party system has been limited by the small number of contested elections held in Ukraine compared to other postcommunist states. In addition, there also exists a popular aversion to party politics, as such, and a tendency of many voters to vote on the basis of the nonparty attributes of candidates. This has led to the weakening of the ability of parties to match particular patterns of social and political cleavage.
This argument is consistent with the observations of many other scholars who have noted similar patterns of development in postcommunist Russian and Eastern European politics. Indeed, to a large extent, the pattern of Ukrainian party development is not very different from the patterns found elsewhere—that despite the existence of persistent voter cleavages, the party system does not match these cleavages. Perhaps one reason for this (a reason noted by other scholars but not emphasized by the author of this book) is that voting on nonparty attributes has something to do with the fact that the Ukrainian system (as in Russia) has maintained presidentialism coupled with single-member district elections. Both of these institutional characteristics tend to favor individual personalities over party programs in electoral competition.
Another minor problem with this book is the absence of a discussion of party behavior in the Rada. This would have been useful in discerning whether distinct party orientations were emerging in parliament, providing an important corollary to the author's analysis of party development on the ground (among voters and candidates). Given that early parties in the West grew out of the legislatures as coalitions of political elites, we might expect a similar process of development in the Ukrainian parliament. Thus, some analysis of political elites within the Rada would have provided a more complete picture of party development in the Ukraine. This would have given greater insight into party system development (the focus of Chapter 7) than viewing party development only from the perspective of the “party on the ground.”
Finally, the conclusion is very short and offered almost as an afterthought—there is some attempt to discuss the findings in light of larger theoretical issues, but not much more. What would have been of great benefit is a discussion of the findings in some comparative way—particularly in the conclusion. Indeed, given the substantial amount of work, among both East European and Western scholars, who find remarkably similar processes of the development of the electorate in countries as diverse as Russia and Lithuania, the Ukrainian case represents yet another example of the mismatch between party development on the ground (among voters) and party actors that comprise the postcommunist party systems.
Nonetheless, these rather minor omissions do not detract from the high quality of this book. In particular, this book will prove to be indispensable reading for scholars who seek to employ the systematic techniques derived from political science to understand better the realities of postcommunist politics.
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