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Social and economic consequences of alcohol use disorder: a longitudinal cohort and co-relative analysis

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  05 December 2016

K. S. Kendler*
Affiliation:
Virginia Institute for Psychiatric and Behavioral Genetics, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, VA, USA Department of Psychiatry, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, VA, USA Department of Human and Molecular Genetics, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, VA, USA
H. Ohlsson
Affiliation:
Center for Primary Health Care Research, Lund University, Malmö, Sweden
K. J. Karriker-Jaffe
Affiliation:
Alcohol Research Group, Public Health Institute, Emeryville, CA, USA
J. Sundquist
Affiliation:
Center for Primary Health Care Research, Lund University, Malmö, Sweden
K. Sundquist
Affiliation:
Center for Primary Health Care Research, Lund University, Malmö, Sweden
*
*Address for correspondence: K. S. Kendler, M.D., Virginia Institute for Psychiatric and Behavioral Genetics of VCU, Box 980126, Richmond, VA 23298-0126, USA. (Email: Kenneth.Kendler@vcuhealth.org)
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Abstract

Background

Although alcohol use disorder (AUD) is associated with future risk for psychosocial dysfunction, the degree to which this arises from a direct causal effect of AUD on functioning v. from correlated risk factors (also known as confounders) is less clearly established.

Method

AUD was assessed from Swedish medical, criminal and pharmacy registries. In a large general population cohort, using Cox proportional hazard and regression models, we predicted from the onset of AUD four outcomes: early retirement, unemployment, social assistance, and individual income. We then examined the degree to which these associations were attenuated by relevant confounders as well as by the use of discordant cousin, half-sibling, full-sibling, and monozygotic twin pairs.

Results

In males, AUD most strongly predicted social assistance [hazard ratio (HR) 8.27, 95% confidence interval (CI) 7.96–8.59], followed by early retirement (HR 5.63, 95% CI 5.53–5.72) and unemployment (HR 2.75, 95% CI 2.65–2.85). For income at age 50, AUD was associated with a decrease in income of 0.24 s.d.s (95% CI −0.25 to −0.23). Results were similar in females. Modest to moderate attenuation of these associations was seen in both sexes after the addition of relevant covariates. These associations were reduced but remained robust in discordant co-relative pairs, including monozygotic twins.

Conclusions

Our results suggest that AUD has a causal impact on a range of measures reflective of psychosocial dysfunction. These findings provide strong support for the drift hypothesis. However, some of the associations between AUD and dysfunction appear to be non-causal and result from shared risk factors, many of which are likely familial.

Information

Type
Original Articles
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2016 
Figure 0

Table 1. Descriptive features of the cohorts used for the examination of the association between AUD and four measures of psychosocial dysfunction: early retirement, unemployment, social assistance, and individual income at age 50

Figure 1

Table 2. The results of Cox proportional hazard and regression models describing the association between registration for AUD and subsequent risk for early retirement, unemployment, social assistance, and low individual income at age 50

Figure 2

Fig. 1. The estimated hazard ratio (± 95% confidence intervals) for early retirement in males as a function of registration for alcohol use disorder in the general population and in discordant cousins, half-siblings, full-siblings and monozygotic (MZ) twins. For the method of estimation, see the methods section. The relatively large decline in the association with increasing closeness of relatives suggests substantial familial confounding of the association.

Figure 3

Table 3. The Association in the general population and Pairs of discordant relatives between alcohol use disorder and early retirement, unemployment, social assistance, and individual income at age 50 as observed in our data and predicted from our genetic co-relative model social/occupational

Figure 4

Fig. 2. The estimated hazard ratio (± 95% confidence intervals) for unemployment in males as a function of registration for alcohol use disorder in the general population and in discordant cousins, half-siblings, full-siblings and monozygotic (MZ) twins. For the method of estimation, see the methods section. The small decline in the association with increasing closeness of relatives suggests only modest familial confounding of the association.

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Kendler supplementary material

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