The Future of Social Policy offers a timely and critical examination of the key issues shaping social policy in mature European welfare states, with the aim of improving our understanding of how it may evolve in the coming decades. As the author notes, writing about the future is inherently difficult. This is perhaps why many scholars avoid addressing it, focusing instead on past and present developments. Greve’s efforts to fill this gap are therefore particularly valuable, as they draw attention to long-term pressures facing welfare states and stimulate debate about possible future directions and priorities.
The book begins by reflecting on the most recent trajectories of the welfare states in Europe, which have been shaped by the many and varied crises experienced over the past two decades. These are examples of how exogenous pressures continue to redefine the role of the state, the market and civil society. More specifically, the book turns its attention to shared structural pressures such as population ageing, disruptive technologies and rising inequalities, which are already unfolding. The author argues that examining long-term social policy developments can deepen our understanding of welfare state change and possibly predict its future evolution. The focus is hence on analysing the issues that are likely to impact social policy using available comparative data. Organised into ten chapters, this book identifies the core factors that could determine future trajectories, each of them addressing specific themes including demographic challenges, changes in the welfare mix, the role of ideology, and the impact of legitimacy and inequality on welfare provision. Subsequent chapters examine questions of financial sustainability and the potential effects of technology, while the final chapters build on these discussions to outline possible pathways for social policy, with particular attention to citizens’ quality of life and wellbeing.
In dialogue with the long tradition of welfare state scholarship, the book situates its contribution within debates on new social risks, social investment, marketisation, inequality and path dependency. It traces both continuities and ruptures from Beveridge and Titmuss, through Esping-Andersen, to contemporary discussions on the expansion and resilience of welfare states. The book’s central premise is that social policy has been, and should remain, adaptive to emerging social and economic transformations, which might indeed shape its future. Its novelty lies in the systematic consideration of how ongoing transformations may shape the future landscape of social policy. Whilst no specific solutions are detailed, Greve emphasises the need for innovative solutions for financing, delivering and legitimising welfare states, while balancing economic sustainability, equality and quality of life. Additionally, the book advocates a multidimensional understanding of social policy that combines prevention, social investment and technological innovation to address traditional and emerging social risks.
The conceptual framework adopts a broad definition of social policy, to the extent that sometimes loses its boundaries. This ambitious interpretation, however, makes it possible for the book to encompass within a single volume a wide range of issues related to policies and approaches that impact citizens’ wellbeing. For example, it ranges from classic income transfers to AI-driven administrative systems or climate-related adaptations. As a result, the book provides a comprehensive overview not only of social policy, but also of the wider context in which it is embedded. Methodologically, the author draws upon a rich and diverse body of secondary sources, including literature and comparative data. The book brings together demographic projections and analyses of socio-economic trends to address welfare state challenges, but does not present new empirical evidence. Although its contribution is largely interpretative, this approach enables meaningful and in-depth reflections about future trajectories. Particularly commendable is the author’s ability to combine a nuanced understanding of social realities with prospective analysis.
The originality of the book is evident, as few works attempt foresight in the field of social policy. Greve provides a holistic synthesis by integrating both classic and contemporary literature on the evolution of social policy, but also gathers disparate topics into a single narrative, such as ageing, inequality, technology and governance. The key explanatory mechanism of the work – that exogenous shocks, including crises and unexpected challenges – repeatedly reshape welfare states is well documented and compelling. Another notable strength of the book lies in its capacity to analyse such topics in the light of normative dimensions like justice, equity or legitimacy, thereby engaging with long-standing academic debates. Additionally, the attention given to legitimacy and the politics of welfare states is insightful and resonates with recent research. Overall, it provides a coherent and well-grounded account of the tensions between sustainability, solidarity and legitimacy that are likely to shape the future of social policy.
At the same time, certain aspects invite further reflection. The book would have been strengthened by a clearer articulation of the role of institutions and other agents in processes of social policy change. It might also have benefited from a discussion of multi-level implementation and governance, from the European to the national and local levels, since social policy is often decentralised. Likewise, the treatment of gender, migration background and territorial inequalities could have been developed more fully, particularly in terms of how intersecting inequalities are likely to evolve and could shape social policy in the coming decades. These limitations, however, do not detract from the book’s analytical coherence nor from its capacity to analyse long-term welfare trajectories.
In sum, this is a thought-provoking book that makes a valuable contribution to ongoing scholarly literature by reflecting on the possible paths social policy might take. Only time will tell whether these predictions materialise, but the intellectual exercise carried out in this volume is certainly worthwhile. It is of interest not only to researchers and students in academia, but also to practitioners and to anyone interested in the future of welfare and social policy. The book succeeds in its central goal: stimulating debate about how societies can sustain solidarity, equity and wellbeing amid the profound social and economic transformations of the twenty-first century.
