In addition to the argument that Chinese power is on the rise, another oft-cited statement about China's current foreign policy offers that the country is entering into a potentially risky transitional period as it settles into great power status and begins to take on the responsibilities and the rights inherent in achieving such a rarefied position. Despite a policy of “peacefully rising,” which Beijing sought to shape shortly after the turn of the century, Chinese power has become an increased source of concern and potential risk to many of the country's neighbours. This has led to the question of whether China will soon begin to act as great powers have often historically done, including challenging international norms and seeking out spheres of influence to protect its growing interests. These issues are addressed in a comprehensive and informative fashion by Return of the Dragon, which focuses on the argument that China is seeking an expanded international role to match its power. There are many potential sources of both friction and even potential conflict due to China's rise, including with the West, but such troubles are not inevitable. At the same time, as Beijing grows, many of its domestic issues – including sustaining economic reform, preventing separatism and the erosion of the Chinese Communist Party, and building a greater sense of Chinese “nationhood” – have spilled over into its international policies.
The first important case study of this book revolves around the US–China relationship. This is hardly a unique starting point, but in addition to explaining longstanding issues in the bilateral relationship, such as Chinese fear of containment and the possibility of a power transition between the two great powers, there is also an explanation of why the US, struggling to maintain its role at the top of the global hierarchy, creates many anxieties for the current Chinese government. One of the main sources of bilateral tensions centres on China's expanded military spending and development. Although the size of the Chinese military is still overshadowed by that of the US, in comparison with China's neighbours the People's Liberation Army appears more formidable. Particularly in the areas of naval power and nuclear weapons, there have been considerable advances on China's part. “From the American point of view, a massive increase in Chinese military strength is on balance a deterioration of the security environment. For China, it is the opposite” (p. 80). This suggests that while there are many strategic issues in which China and the US have similar interests, there are many other areas where policies have begun to diverge.
In addition to links with the United States, it is on China's borderlands that concerns about Beijing's strategic aims are becoming more pronounced. In contrast to the country's “peaceful rise” doctrine, recent years have seen a deterioration of relations between China on one side and Japan and other East, Southeast and South Asian countries on the other. In the case of Tokyo, the book describes an unusual relationship where economic ties are strong but political relations are hampered by a range of issues including Japan's historical legacy, disputed island territories, Japan's strengthened alliance with the United States, and the question of which state can ultimately assume the role of regional leader within Asia. Similar critical views are made of Chinese relationships with India, the Philippines, Russia, South Korea and Vietnam, all of which have developed anxieties about growing Chinese military power. Finally, Taiwan, despite warmed relations, is rarely far from China's strategic thinking, with the conclusion that “the price Taiwan must pay to maintain autonomy from China is increasing” (p. 221).
The case of Vietnam is especially complex and not only due to the legacy of historical mistrust between Beijing and Hanoi. In addition, unlike Japan and the Philippines, Vietnam has been much more wary of any sort of great power alignment given its bitter experiences over the last century. Instead, Hanoi has opted for a thorny policy of balancing various power interests in the region while maintaining its stance against growing Chinese encroachment in the South China Sea. Russia is described not as an ally of China but rather a strategic partner, with the caveat that despite still considerable Russian power, the country's relations with China are becoming less equal.
The final sections of the book analyse China's growing international concerns and strategic interests. Some risks are established, including nuclear proliferation and energy security, but more recent additions to this list are human security, cyber warfare and terrorism, as befitting a great power in modern era. Although the book does suggest that conflict either on the international or the regional level is not inevitable, the author does conclude that China's rise at present is having a potentially negative impact on overall global security. This point may be argued, but the book contributes much well-reasoned thinking to the growing debate over the role of China as a strategic actor and into what sort of great power it is evolving. As such, this book makes a significant and impressive contribution to Chinese security and foreign policy studies.
