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Published online by Cambridge University Press: 01 April 2003
ARMA representation of squared Markov switching heteroskedastic models—solution.
We can rewrite the equation expressing the dynamics of the volatility as

The process {Δt} admits an AR(1) representation of the kind

where λ = −1 + p + q is the second eigenvalue of the transition matrix of the Markov chain (the other one being equal to 1) and vt has the following probability structure (Hamilton 1989, p. 360):

Rearranging equation (1) yields

where et = εt2 − σt2 is a mean-zero error. Applying the operator (1 − λL) to both sides of (2) and using the AR(1) structure of {Δt} yields

The error term on the right-hand side of (3) admits a MA(1) representation

where β is the value less than one in absolute value that, together with σu2, solves

In the case of interest

with E(Δt) = (1 − q)/(2 − p − q).
Therefore we can write (3) as an ARMA(1,1)

where ω = μ1(1 − λ) + (μ2 − μ1)(1 − q), α = −1 + p + q, and β is the solution to (4).
In the special case where p + q = 1 we have that λ = α = β = 0 and εt2 is a white noise with mean ω = μ1 + (μ2 − μ1)(1 − q).