Hostname: page-component-74656f9884-npj9w Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2026-11-08T01:52:52.623Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Risk of transition to schizophrenia following first admission with substance-induced psychotic disorder: a population-based longitudinal cohort study

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  03 May 2017

H. L. Alderson*
Affiliation:
Queen Margaret Hospital, Whitefield Road, Dunfermline, Fife, KY12 0SU, UK
D. M. Semple
Affiliation:
Hairmyres Hospital, Eaglesham Road, East Kilbride, Glasgow G75 8RG, UK
C. Blayney
Affiliation:
Gartnavel Royal Hospital, 1055 Great Western Road, Glasgow G12 0XH, UK
F. Queirazza
Affiliation:
Institute of Neuroscience and Psychology, University of Glasgow, 58 Hillhead Street, Glasgow G12 8QW, UK
V. Chekuri
Affiliation:
Hairmyres Hospital, Eaglesham Road, East Kilbride, Glasgow G75 8RG, UK
S. M. Lawrie
Affiliation:
Department of Psychiatry, University of Edinburgh, Royal Edinburgh Hospital, Edinburgh EH10 5HF, UK
*
*Address for correspondence: H. L. Alderson, Department of Psychiatry, Phase 1, Queen Margaret Hospital, Whitefield Road, Dunfermline, Fife, KY12 0SU, UK. (Email: h.alderson@nhs.net)
Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Background

The potential for drugs of abuse to induce acute psychotic symptoms is well recognised. However, the likelihood of transition from initial substance-induced psychotic disorder (SIPD) to chronic psychosis is much less well understood. This study investigated the rate of SIPD transition to schizophrenia (F20), the time to conversion and other possible related factors.

Methods

Using data from the Scottish Morbidity Record, we examined all patients (n = 3486) since their first admission to psychiatric hospital with a diagnosis of SIPD [International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision (ICD-10) codes F10–F19, with third digit five] from January 1997 to July 2012. Patients were followed until first episode of schizophrenia (ICD-10 code F20, with any third digit) or July 2012. Any change in diagnosis was noted in the follow-up period, which ranged from 1 day to 15.5 years across the groups.

Results

The 15.5-year cumulative hazard rate was 17.3% (s.e. = 0.007) for a diagnosis of schizophrenia. Cannabis, stimulant, opiate and multiple drug-induced psychotic disorder were all associated with similar hazard rates. The mean time to transition to a diagnosis of schizophrenia was around 13 years, although over 50% did so within 2 years and over 80% of cases presented within 5 years of SIPD diagnosis. Risk factors included male gender, younger age and longer first admission.

Conclusions

SIPD episodes requiring hospital admission for more than 2 weeks are more likely to be associated with later diagnosis of schizophrenia. Follow-up periods of more than 2 years are needed to detect the majority of those individuals who will ultimately develop schizophrenia.

Information

Type
Original Articles
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2017 
Figure 0

Table 1. Summary of patient demographics and risk of conversion (cumulative hazard) to diagnosis of schizophrenia (F20) across specific substance sub-groups

Figure 1

Fig. 1. Hazard function with censoring illustrating time to change from SIP to schizophrenia in a cohort of patients first-ever admitted to any Scottish psychiatric hospital between January 1997 and July 2012 subdivided by substance attributed to psychotic episode.

Figure 2

Table 2. Between group demographics and length of inpatient stay for selected cohorts who received a subsequent diagnosis of schizophrenia (F20)

Figure 3

Table 3. Between group comparisons of outcome measures for selected cohorts who received a subsequent diagnosis of schizophrenia (F20)

Supplementary material: File

Alderson supplementary material

Alderson supplementary material 1

Download Alderson supplementary material(File)
File 18.5 KB