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Trends in western Ross Sea emperor penguin chick abundances and their relationships to climate

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  22 October 2007

S.M. Barber-Meyer*
Affiliation:
Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Center for Marine Biotechnology and Biomedicine, Scholander Hall, 9500 Gilman Drive #0204, La Jolla, CA 92093-0204, USA
G.L. Kooyman
Affiliation:
Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Center for Marine Biotechnology and Biomedicine, Scholander Hall, 9500 Gilman Drive #0204, La Jolla, CA 92093-0204, USA
P.J. Ponganis
Affiliation:
Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Center for Marine Biotechnology and Biomedicine, Scholander Hall, 9500 Gilman Drive #0204, La Jolla, CA 92093-0204, USA
*
*Corresponding author: shannonbarbermeyer@gmail.com
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Abstract

The emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri) is extremely dependent on the extent and stability of sea ice, which may make the species particularly susceptible to environmental change. In order to appraise the stability of the emperor penguin populations at six colonies in the western Ross Sea, we used linear regression analysis to evaluate chick abundance trends (1983–2005) and Pearson's r correlation to assess their relation to two local and two large-scale climate variables. We detected only one significant abundance trend; the Cape Roget colony increased from 1983 to 1996 (n = 6). Higher coefficients of variation in chick abundances at smaller colonies (Cape Crozier, Beaufort Island, Franklin Island) suggest that such colonies occupy marginal habitat, and are more susceptible to environmental change. We determined chick abundance to be most often correlated with local Ross Sea climate variables (sea ice extent and sea surface temperature), but not in consistent patterns across the colonies. We propose that chick abundance is most impacted by fine scale sea ice extent and local weather events, which are best evaluated by on-site assessments. We did not find sufficient evidence to reject the hypothesis that the overall emperor penguin population in the Ross Sea was stable during this period.

Information

Type
Biological Sciences
Copyright
Copyright © Antarctic Science Ltd 2008
Figure 0

Fig. 1. Locations of six emperor penguin colonies in the western Ross Sea. Arrows represent the approximate location of each colony. Iceberg B15A is shown as solid black in its 2001–03 location. Subsequently, the lower third of the iceberg broke off and the rest travelled (dashed line) just south of Franklin Island and then north during 2004 and continued north (dotted line) during 2005.

Figure 1

Fig. 2a–e. Sea ice extent (SIE), sea surface temperature (SST), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), and Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode (SAM) data used in correlations with western Ross Sea emperor penguin live chick counts from 1983–2005.

Figure 2

Table I. Western Ross Sea emperor penguin live chick counts from 1983–2005, summary statistics, and linear regression parameters for abundance trends. Note that the sampling years are not continuous.

Figure 3

Table II. Pearson correlation coefficients (n) between Ross Sea emperor penguin live chick counts from 1983–2005 and climate variables averaged across varying months evaluated at t and a lag of five years.