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Partisan Affiliation and the Evaluation of Non-Prototypical Candidates

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  28 May 2018

Alexander W. Severson*
Affiliation:
Department of Political Science, Florida State University, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL, USA, e-mail: aws12@my.fsu.edu, awseverson@gmail.com, Twitter: @awseverson
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Abstract

Ideologically impure candidates—RINOs and DINOs—risk losing the endorsement of their fellow copartisans. However, which copartisans? In this article, I assess how party affiliation and the strength of partisan affiliation condition the evaluation of ideologically impure, non-prototypical candidates. Using a nationally representative survey experiment, I present evidence that while partisans negatively evaluate non-prototypical copartisans, there is not a consistent relationship between strength of identification and the degree of punitiveness. Moreover, candidate non-prototypicality causes convergence in candidate support between Republicans and Democrats. My results provide evidence that nominal partisan affiliation is by itself insufficient to save an ideologically non-prototypical candidate from the rebuke of fellow copartisans and thus that the “in-name-only” charge holds some weight.

Information

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © The Experimental Research Section of the American Political Science Association 2018 
Figure 0

Figure 1 Average Marginal Effect of Condition on Prototype Perception. Marginal effect of party identification and condition on prototypicality perception with 95% confidence intervals for Republican candidate. Marginal effects were estimated by regressing prototypicality perceptions on the PID scale, condition, and the pairwise interaction of PID × condition. Condition 1 = Prototypical Republican. Condition 2 = Non-Prototypical Republican.

Figure 1

Figure 2 Average Marginal Effect of Condition on Prototype Perception. Marginal effect of party identification and condition on prototypicality perception with 95% confidence intervals for Democrat candidate. Marginal effects were estimated by regressing prototypicality perceptions on the PID scale, condition, and the pairwise interaction of PID × condition. Condition 3 = Prototypical Democrat. Condition 4 = Non-Prototypical Democrat.

Figure 2

Figure 3 Average Marginal Effect of Political Knowledge on Prototype Perception. Marginal effect of political knowledge and condition on prototypicality perception with 95% confidence intervals. The political knowledge index is a summative scale of four questions, coded 0 if the incorrect answer was given and coded 1 if the correct answer was given. Scale values range from 0 (low political knowledge) to 4 (high political knowledge). Marginal effects were estimated by regressing the political knowledge scale, condition, and the pairwise interaction of political knowledge × condition on prototypicality perceptions. Condition 1 = Prototypical Republican. Condition 2 = Non-Prototypical Republican.

Figure 3

Figure 4 Average Marginal Effect of Political Knowledge on Prototype Perception. Marginal effect of political knowledge and condition on prototypicality perception with 95% confidence intervals. The political knowledge index is a summative scale of four questions, coded 0 if the incorrect answer was given and coded 1 if the correct answer was given. Scale values range from 0 (low political knowledge) to 4 (high political knowledge). Marginal effects were estimated by regressing the political knowledge scale, condition, and the pairwise interaction of political knowledge × condition on prototypicality perceptions. Condition 3 = Prototypical Democrat. Condition 4 = Non-Prototypical Democrat.

Figure 4

Figure 5 ATE of Prototype and PID on Vote for Republican Candidate. Average treatment effect of party identification and prototypicality condition on vote propensity with 95% confidence intervals for the Republican candidate. ATEs were estimated by regressing the vote propensity score on the PID scale, condition, and the pairwise interaction of PID × condition. Condition 1 = Prototypical Republican. Condition 2 = Non-Prototypical Republican.

Figure 5

Figure 6 ATE of Prototype and PID on Vote for Democrat Candidate. Average treatment effect of party identification and prototypicality condition on vote propensity with 95% confidence intervals for the Democratic candidate. ATEs were estimated by regressing the vote propensity score on the PID scale, condition, and the pairwise interaction of PID × condition. Condition 3 = Prototypical Democrat. Condition 4 = Non-Prototypical Democrat.

Figure 6

Figure 7 Adjusted Predictions of PID on Vote Propensity for Republican Candidate. Mean of vote propensity by party identification and condition with 95% confidence intervals for the Republican candidate. Adjusted predictions were estimated by regressing the feeling thermometer score on the PID scale, condition, and the pairwise interaction of PID × condition. Condition 1 = Prototypical Republican. Condition 2 = Non-Prototypical Republican.

Figure 7

Figure 8 Adjusted Predictions of PID on Vote Propensity for Democrat Candidate. Mean of vote propensity by party identification and condition with 95% confidence intervals for the Democratic candidate. Adjusted predictions were estimated by regressing the feeling thermometer score on the PID scale, condition, and the pairwise interaction of PID × condition. Condition 3 = Prototypical Democrat. Condition 4 = Non-Prototypical Democrat.

Figure 8

Figure 9 ATE of Prototype and PID on Affect Toward Republican Candidate. Average treatment effect of party identification and prototypicality condition on candidate affect with 95% confidence intervals for the Republican candidate. ATEs were estimated by regressing the feeling thermometer score on the PID scale, condition, and the pairwise interaction of PID × condition. Condition 1 = Prototypical Republican. Condition 2 = Non-Prototypical Republican.

Figure 9

Figure 10 ATE of Prototype and PID on Affect Toward Democrat Candidate. Average treatment effect of party identification and prototypicality condition on candidate affect with 95% confidence intervals for the Democratic candidate. ATEs were estimated by regressing the feeling thermometer scores on the PID scale, condition, and the pairwise interaction of PID × condition. Condition 3 = Prototypical Democrat. Condition 4 = Non-Prototypical Democrat.

Figure 10

Figure 11 Adjusted Predictions of PID on Affect for Republican Candidate. Mean of candidate affect by party identification and condition with 95% confidence intervals for the Republican candidate. ATEs were estimated by regressing the feeling thermometer score on the PID scale, condition, and the pairwise interaction of PID × condition. Condition 1 = Prototypical Republican. Condition 2 = Non-Prototypical Republican.

Figure 11

Figure 12 Adjusted Predictions of PID on Affect for Democrat Candidate. Mean of candidate affect by party identification and condition with 95% confidence intervals for the Democratic candidate. ATEs were estimated by regressing the feeling thermometer score on the PID scale, condition, and the pairwise interaction of PID × condition. Condition 3 = Prototypical Democrat. Condition 4 = Non-Prototypical Democrat.

Figure 12

Table A1 Participant Frequencies by Condition

Figure 13

Table B1 Summary Statistics

Figure 14

Table C1 Means and Standard Deviations

Figure 15

Table D1 Prototypicality Perceptions by Party ID and Condition

Figure 16

Table E1 Prototypicality Perceptions by Political Knowledge and Condition

Figure 17

Table F1 Estimation Results : Covariate Balance

Supplementary material: Link

Severson Dataset

Link