North Korea's Chairman, Kim Jong Un, agreed to work toward the Korean peninsula's denuclearization at a Singapore summit meeting with President Trump on June 12, 2018. The encounter marked the first time in history that the president of the United States and the leader of North Korea have met in person. It came after an intense year and a half of interactions between the two countries, including the exchange of nuclear-laced military threats, the imposition of new sanctions by the United States and the UN Security Council, and, eventually, a touch of détente. Since the meeting occurred, North Korea has taken several steps consistent with commitments it made, including returning remains said to be those of American service members, refraining from missile launches, and beginning to dismantle its testing facilities. Also since the meeting occurred, the United States has suspended its usual joint military exercises with South Korea, consistent with a statement made by Trump at the summit, while leaving in place existing sanctions against North Korea.
U.S. efforts toward a denuclearized North Korea can be traced back to 1994, when the two countries reached an agreement whereby the United States would provide a light-water reactor power plant in exchange for North Korea's commitment to refrain from further nuclear development.Footnote 1 Beginning in 1998, the United States began to doubt whether North Korea was fulfilling its commitment, and the agreement eventually broke down.Footnote 2 In 2005, at the time of a review conference for the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), North Korea declared that it had nuclear weapons.Footnote 3 By this time, North Korea had announced its withdrawal from the NPT and expelled international inspectors.Footnote 4 Following the announcement, the United States began a series of “on-again, off-again efforts,” known as the Six-Party talks, to negotiate North Korea's denuclearization.Footnote 5 In a joint statement at one of the talks, North Korea “committed to abandoning all nuclear weapons and existing nuclear programs and returning, at an early date to the” NPT.Footnote 6 North Korea continued developing its nuclear program,Footnote 7 and the Six-Party talks ended in 2009.Footnote 8 In subsequent years—during which time Kim Jong Un succeeded his father to power—the Obama administration worked to increase international sanctions on North Korea, which continued to build its nuclear weapons program.Footnote 9
Shortly after Trump came to office, his administration pursued a “pressure campaign of economic and diplomatic sanctions against North Korea” to encourage it to negotiate its “complete, verifiable, and irreversible” denuclearization with the United States.Footnote 10 South Korea also committed to this campaign.Footnote 11 After a year that involved escalating military threats between Trump and Kim, numerous new Security Council resolutions placing sanctions against North Korea, and North Korea's test-firing a ballistic missile that it claimed could send a nuclear warhead to any U.S. city, hostility between the two countries continued into 2018.Footnote 12
In January, Trump reacted to Kim's comments that a “[n]uclear button is on [Kim's] desk at all times” by asking on Twitter if “someone from his depleted and food starved regime [could] please inform him that I too have a Nuclear Button, but it is a much bigger & more powerful one than his, and my Button works!”Footnote 13 Rex Tillerson, then the secretary of state, explained that Trump's tweet reflected the U.S. position that its “diplomatic efforts are backed by a strong military option if necessary.”Footnote 14 Later that month, Tillerson warned that if North Korea “[did] not choose the pathway of engagement, discussion, negotiation, then they themselves will trigger an option.”Footnote 15 Shortly after Tillerson's warning, the U.S. Department of the Treasury announced new sanctions targeting entities and individuals involved in financing or supporting North Korea's government.Footnote 16 The rising hostilities between the two countries sparked debate among scholars about the extent to which Trump could use military force against North Korea on the grounds of anticipatory self-defense.Footnote 17
North Korea continued to show no signs of denuclearization and, in February, Vice President Pence announced that the United States would continue to intensify its campaign against North Korea by imposing “the toughest and most aggressive round of economic sanctions on North Korea ever.”Footnote 18 Secretary of the Treasury Steven Mnuchin announced these sanctions at the end of the month as the “largest set of sanctions ever imposed in connection with North Korea.”Footnote 19 The sanctions targeted “27 entities, 28 vessels, and 1 individual, all involved in sanctions evasions schemes.”Footnote 20 These new sanctions were sparked by North Korea's illicit trade and illegal ship-to-ship transfers, and the Department of the Treasury released images of these activities in conjunction with the imposition of the sanctions.Footnote 21 After the sanctions were announced, Trump again alluded to military action against North Korea when he warned that the United States would have to go to “phase two” if the sanctions did not work, which “may be a very rough thing” and “very, very unfortunate for the world.”Footnote 22
Relations between the United States and North Korea began to shift in March when North Korea announced that it would be willing to discuss “issues of mutual concern” with the United States if there were no “preconditions” for the talks.Footnote 23 This announcement came after President Moon Jae-in of South Korea met with senior North Korean officials at the close of the PyeongChang Winter Olympics to discuss possible dialogue.Footnote 24 A few days after North Korea's announcement, South Korea's National Security Advisor, Chung Eui-Yong, visited the White House to communicate to Trump that Kim wanted to meet with him to discuss denuclearization and that the chairman pledged to “refrain from any further nuclear or missile tests.”Footnote 25 Trump immediately accepted,Footnote 26 making him the first sitting U.S. president to agree to meet with the leader of North Korea.Footnote 27
North Korea announced in the following month that it would suspend its nuclear and missile test program and shut down its nuclear testing site.Footnote 28 On April 27, Kim crossed onto the South Korean side of the demilitarized zone in the village of Panmunjom, where he signed a joint statement with Moon that they would work toward the peninsula's denuclearization.Footnote 29 Despite suspicion among some officials in the White House regarding North Korea's intentions,Footnote 30 Secretary of State Mike Pompeo traveled to North Korea to establish a date and location for the meeting,Footnote 31 maintaining that the United States would not relieve economic pressure on North Korea until denuclearization was fully achieved.Footnote 32 At the end of his trip, North Korea released three U.S. citizens whom it was holding in custody.Footnote 33
After some intervening uncertainty—including a temporary cancellationFootnote 34—Trump and Kim met in Singapore on June 12.Footnote 35 Trump complimented Kim as “very talented,” “[v]ery smart,” and a “[v]ery good negotiator” and called the meeting “honest, direct, and productive.”Footnote 36 They issued a joint statement agreeing to a set of commitments:
President Trump committed to provide security guarantees to the DPRK, and Chairman Kim Jong Un reaffirmed his firm and unwavering commitment to complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.
Convinced that the establishment of new U.S.–DPRK relations will contribute to the peace and prosperity of the Korean Peninsula and of the world, and recognizing that mutual confidence building can promote the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, President Trump and Chairman Kim Jong Un state the following:
1. The United States and the DPRK commit to establish new U.S.–DPRK relations in accordance with the desire of the peoples of the two countries for peace and prosperity.
2. The United States and the DPRK will join their efforts to build a lasting and stable peace regime on the Korean Peninsula.
3. Reaffirming the April 27, 2018 Panmunjom Declaration, the DPRK commits to work toward complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.
4. The United States and the DPRK commit to recovering POW/MIA remains, including the immediate repatriation of those already identified.
… President Trump and Chairman Kim Jong Un commit to implement the stipulations in this joint statement fully and expeditiously. The United States and the DPRK commit to hold follow-on negotiations, led by the U.S. Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, and a relevant high-level DPRK official, at the earliest possible date, to implement the outcomes of the U.S.–DPRK summit.Footnote 37
After signing the document, Trump held a press conference discussing the negotiations:
Chairman Kim has told me that North Korea is already destroying a major missile engine testing site. That's not in your signed document; we agreed to that after the agreement was signed. That's a big thing—for the missiles that they were testing, the site is going to be destroyed very soon.
Today is the beginning of an arduous process. Our eyes are wide open, but peace is always worth the effort, especially in this case. …
…
In the meantime, the sanctions will remain in effect. …Footnote 38
Trump also confirmed that a verification process for North Korea's denuclearization would be implemented but did not give a timetable for the commitments made in the agreement.Footnote 39 Trump announced that in addition to the agreement, military exercises with South Korea, known as “war games,” would not continue.Footnote 40 The war games are a long-standing practice used to prepare forces from the United States and South Korea for war with North Korea.Footnote 41
Around the world, foreign officials praised the agreement. Moon described it as a “great victory achieved by both the United States and the two Koreas, and a huge step forward for people across the world who long for peace.”Footnote 42 Singapore's Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong called the agreement a “dramatic step forward.”Footnote 43 Through his spokesperson, the UN secretary-general welcomed the summit “as an important milestone in the advancement of sustainable peace and the complete and verifiable denuclearization on the Korean Peninsula.”Footnote 44
On Trump's way back from the summit, he tweeted that “[t]here is no longer a Nuclear Threat from North Korea.”Footnote 45 Pompeo traveled to North Korea in the beginning of July to discuss how the commitments between the United States and North Korea would be carried out,Footnote 46 but he has stated that sanctions and economic pressure will not be relieved prior to full denuclearization.Footnote 47 Pompeo has sought assurances from other countries, such as Vietnam, that they will enforce existing Security Council sanctions against North Korea.Footnote 48 In July, the United States called for the cessation of oil transfers to North Korea, stating that its annual cap had been exceeded and any more transfers would violate the Security Council sanctions.Footnote 49
As of early September 2018, North Korea has taken several steps relevant to its summit commitments. Using satellite imagery, analysts say North Korea has begun dismantling its testing facilities at its satellite launch station.Footnote 50 On July 26 and August 2, North Korea returned remains of what were said to be American service members.Footnote 51 And Deputy White House Press Secretary Hogan Gidley mentioned at the end of July that North Korea has not fired a missile in nine months.Footnote 52 Although North Korea has been taking steps toward the fulfillment of its summit commitments, it considers the United States to not be living up to its commitment of improved relations.Footnote 53 According to a recent statement by North Korea's foreign minister, Ri Yong-ho, North Korea interpreted this commitment to include more immediate steps to reduce economic pressure and sanctions.Footnote 54
Pompeo has stated that moving forward he wants to “engage[] in patient diplomacy” and “will not let this drag out to no end,” even though North Korea's possible denuclearization could be a slow process.Footnote 55 The sanctions that existed at the time of the summit have remained in place.Footnote 56 Questioned about why North Korean denuclearization is not moving faster, Trump remarked, “I left 3 months ago. We got our hostages back. There's no more missiles flying over Japan. There's no rockets going up. There's no nuclear testing. And we have a good relationship with North Korea. So we'll see how it works.”Footnote 57 North Korea now demands that the United States declare that the Korean War is over before it will provide disclosures to the United States about its atomic weapons, nuclear production facilities, and missiles.Footnote 58 Trump had previously stated that the United States will sign a peace treaty ending the Korean War “at the appropriate time … a little bit further down the road.”Footnote 59
In late August 2018, the Trump administration announced that it was cancelling a planned trip by the U.S. Secretary of State to North Korea because of insufficient progress on the issue of denuclearization.Footnote 60 Shortly thereafter, the U.S. executive branch sent conflicting signals about whether future war games would be suspended, with Trump ultimately emphasizing that “the President believes that his relationship with Kim Jong Un is a very good and warm one, and there is no reason at this time to be spending large amounts of money on joint U.S.-South Korea war games.”Footnote 61 In early September, the Trump administration revealed that Kim had requested a second summit meeting, “which we are open to and are already in the process of coordinating.”Footnote 62