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Hospital Medical Surge Capacity Assessment and Planning Tools for Disaster Response: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  19 May 2026

Hisham Hassan Ali Dinar*
Affiliation:
Directorate of Emergencies, The National Health Emergency Operations Center, Ministry of Health, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
Omer Abdel Fattah Othman
Affiliation:
Deputy to General Executive Manager, The National Health Emergency Operations Center, Ministry of Health, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
Ives Hubloue
Affiliation:
Chair Research Group on Emergency and Disaster Medicine, Vrije Universiteit Brussel , Brussel, Belgium
*
Corresponding author: Hisham Hassan Ali Dinar; Email: hisham.alidinar@gmail.com
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Abstract

Background

Hospital surge capacity is pivotal for disaster response, yet the effectiveness of assessment and planning tools remains underexplored.

Objective

This systematic review evaluates the reliability, validity, and applicability of surge capacity tools across disaster scenarios.

Methods

Following PRISMA guidelines, we analyzed 24 Q1 studies (PubMed, Scopus) using the PICO framework. Risk of bias was assessed via ROBINS-E, and meta-analysis (random-effects model) quantified pooled effect sizes (ES). Subgroup analyses compared simulation tools, surveys, and resource strategies.

Results

The combined ES was 0.74 (95% CI: 0.67–0.82), indicating moderate improvement in preparedness. Simulation tools (Group A) showed the highest consistency (ES = 0.81, I2 = 0%), while resource strategies (Group C) had wider variability (ES = 0.71, I2 = 74.42%). Egger’s regression revealed publication bias (P = 0.004), and heterogeneity was substantial (I2 = 76.70%).

Conclusions

Simulation-based tools are most effective for surge capacity, whereas resource strategies require contextual adaptation. Policymakers should prioritize standardized benchmarks and DSS integration, with future research addressing equity and real-world implementation gaps.

Information

Type
Systematic Review
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2026. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of Society for Disaster Medicine and Public Health, Inc
Figure 0

Figure 1. Screening results of the search strategy.

Figure 1

Table 1. General characteristics of the included studies

Figure 2

Figure 2. Risk of bias assessment using ROBINS-E tool across 24 disaster preparedness studies.

Figure 3

Figure 3. Funnel plot asymmetry and small-study effects in surge capacity meta-analysis.

Figure 4

Figure 4. Forest plot of effect sizes for hospital surge capacity interventions across key studies.

Figure 5

Table 2. Meta-analysis of hospital surge capacity interventions: combined effect and heterogeneity assessment

Figure 6

Figure 5. Subgroup analysis of hospital surge capacity interventions: comparing simulation tools, preparedness surveys, and resource management strategies.

Figure 7

Table 3. Reliability, validity, and applicability of the tools used in the included studies