The Overthrow of Robert Mugabe by Blessing-Miles Tendi is an important contribution to contemporary scholarship on African politics. At the heart of the book is a question many scholars of Zimbabwe and similar regimes will grapple with: what caused the coup, and why did it take place in 2017? The motivations for the Zimbabwe coup and the end of Mugabe’s rule can be thought of as twofold: those of the citizens who marched and those of the political elites. Tendi’s work provides insight into the latter but without discounting the important role of citizens. Elite actors in the Zimbabwe African National Union—Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) were navigating an interesting terrain. They could have waited a few more years, and Mugabe, already 93 years old, would likely have died, ending his rule. Tendi provides us with an explanation for the coup motivations behind the scenes among the elites in ZANU-PF and within the diplomatic community. Tendi’s explanations are valuable because coups are complex, and a single book cannot fully explain why a specific coup happened.
Why a coup in 2017? Tendi argues Zimbabwe experienced a coup because Grace Mugabe positioned herself as Mugabe’s successor. ZANU-PF elites made a risky decision to oust Mugabe to prevent Grace Mugabe’s rise. This, he argues, reflects the gendered nature of coups: if Mugabe had chosen a male successor, ZANU PF elites would have likely accepted his choice and not pushed back with their own preferences. Chapter 2 is devoted to the gender explanation. I agree with Tendi on the gendered nature of coups, and I am glad he engages Zimbabwean feminist scholars such as Rudo Mudiwa and Lyton Ncube to ground our understanding of women in Zimbabwean politics. Tendi argues that Zimbabwe likely would not have experienced a coup if not for Grace Mugabe’s ambitions. Grace Mugabe evolved from a pretty face known for her fashion choices to a beret-wearing Comrade Grace. As Tendi notes, Grace Mugabe was not an unproblematic or “uncomplicated victim” (p. 31). Still, the coup transpired because ZANU-PF elites could not fathom a woman becoming president, especially one with no liberation struggle credentials. The opposition to Grace Mugabe was primarily because she was a woman. A male successor with just as many flaws, if not more, would have had an easier time because ZANU PF elites would have set aside their differences for the greater good of the party. Tendi’s work therefore foretells challenges for future transitions, especially now that the constitution has been amended to eliminate the direct election of the president. There are already calls for delays to the ZANU PF congress. It is clear that the goal is to extend Mnangagwa’s tenure for as long as possible. Under these conditions, it will be almost impossible for a woman to lead in ZANU-PF. A man without experience in liberation struggles is likely to become president before a woman liberator.
In Chapters 3 and 4, Tendi focuses on internal actors in the military and ZANU-PF. On the surface, the Zimbabwe coup is similar to others. A general appeared on television at night, announced a takeover of the security forces, assured the nation of the president’s safety, linked the coup to corruption, and promised a return to normal. The Zimbabwe case becomes interesting once Mugabe refuses to step down and attempts to write his own exit storyline, leading to excessive negotiations. Tendi’s access to security leaders and other key actors is impressive. I have yet to read another book that gives such complete insight into the thinking of security actors. In addition to the military generals, the police chief was also an instrumental figure in the coup along with the heads of central intelligence, the CIO. One reason that many observers did not anticipate this coup was that the CIO and the police had played an oversized role under Robert Mugabe. In the weeks leading up to the coup, top army General Constantino Chiwenga had raised concerns about the fringe group, G40, led by Grace Mugabe. G40 spokespersons responded by insulting General Chiwenga on national television; they likely did this because they assumed they had the backing of intelligence police chief, Police Commissioner Augustine Chihuri. Unbeknownst to Chihuri, however, his deputy Godwin Matanga was working with the military. Chihuri was arrested during the coup as rumors circulated that he had planned to arrest Chiwenga on his return from national business in China. In his defense, Chihuri maintains that he never tried to arrest Chiwenga—the attempted arrest was assumed to be the main catalyst of the coup. Once the police and intelligence chiefs were mobilized, their troops were arrested and forced to surrender their weapons, leaving Mugabe and those loyal to him vulnerable to military action. Mugabe’s strongest line of defense had been weakened. It is very unlikely that he would have anticipated these conditions. As Tendi notes, the conditions for a coup differ from triggers, and these factors can work in tandem to produce one.
As the coup unfolded in Zimbabwe, the world stood with bated breath, waiting for the diplomatic responses. Robert Mugabe had no friends in the West, and Zimbabwe was sanctioned. In Chapters 7 and 8, drawing on rich interviews with international diplomats, including Western ambassadors, Tendi explains why the 2017 transition was never formally labeled a coup and the implications of that silence. Like Tendi, I too spoke to European diplomats who believed strongly that Mnangagwa could turn things around for Zimbabwe and that labeling the November 2017 events a coup would derail progress. The diplomats were engaging in “strategic patience.” Yet the cost of that has been the regression of democratic norms. Since 2017, Zimbabwe has lost any previous gains made toward building a strong civil society and the opposition is at its weakest. Zimbabwe is now headed towards a stronger, militarized one party state—a feat Mugabe failed to achieve in 1983. Again, Tendi draws on a wealth of interview data from hard-to-access diplomats. His bravery in engaging in this work is commendable. As one would expect, the diplomats all point to the delicate nature of the situation in Zimbabwe. Calling what happened a coup would have severe adverse implications on Zimbabwe’s ability to move forward. Tendi argues that the hesitancy to publicly call the transition a coup has hurt Zimbabwe’s democratic trajectory by closing down avenues for accountability. From a purely academic perspective, he is right. However, so are the diplomats and the thousands of Zimbabweans who had been waiting to see the end of Mugabe’s rule.
A single book cannot tell the full story. Missing is the role of gender beyond the important but narrow focus on Grace Mugabe. The book’s focus on elites also downplays the fact that the coup relied on extensive buy-in from citizens, including opposition leaders, who agreed that it was indeed Mugabe’s time to go. Western diplomats behaved the same way that Morgan Tsvangirai, the formidable opposition leader, did—they endorsed an event hoping for a better outcome. The lesson we learn from Zimbabwe is that coups often beget more military rule. Had Tsvangirai lived, and not died in early 2018 shortly after the coup, however, perhaps Zimbabwe’s post-coup trajectory would have been more positive. The opposition would certainly be stronger. Elite decisions matter but they cannot be decoupled from the voice of the citizens. Zimbabweans had been waiting a long time to see Mugabe’s fall from power. The coup was a high price that many citizens were at the time willing to pay.
