The dramatic emergence of China and India as major global players and the implications this carries for the international political and economic order have already been the subject of several important studies. Carl Dahlman's book is a useful addition to this burgeoning scholarship because it lucidly addresses a topic that has not received the scholarly scrutiny it deserves: how the rapid ascent of these two Asian giants is reshaping global economic and environmental systems, what this means for regional and global stability, governance and sustainability, and how the world can best accommodate the rise of these two massive economies.
In order to link these multifaceted variables, Dahlman develops an imaginative and comprehensive framework that nicely illuminates the patterns of interdependence between economic size, trade, finance, technology, environment, security, and global governance. He then uses this framework to provide data on the speed of global power shifts and to trace the implications for nations worldwide. In so doing, Dahlman provides a number of novel insights and also highlights why these should constitute “our most pressing concerns.” At the core of the study's findings is that, contrary to conventional wisdom, economic convergence (the result of integration and interdependence) is neither a smooth nor a linear process. Rather, rapid economic growth can lead to unintended outcomes. In the case of China and India, their entry onto the global stage and their unchecked growth is already creating frictions in trade, finance, foreign investment and intellectual property rights, and has the potential to ignite trade, resource and conventional wars. Indeed, Dahlman warns that these two rapidly rising economies' growing pressures to expand their export base (especially merchandise goods), and their insatiable appetite for natural resources may not only quickly spiral into conflict, including military conflict, it will also create unprecedented environmental pressures – thereby setting in motion monumental challenges related to climate change. To underscore his claims, Dahlman develops a nuanced historical framework to illustrate that dramatic change in global political and economic power configurations have typically resulted in an intensification of hostilities. Moreover, when “additional complexities introduced by the binding global environmental constraints of our day” (p. 8) are factored in the equation, the divisions and tensions can rapidly escalate into destructive economic and power collisions.
Making matters worse, the current international governance system is not up to the challenge of accommodating rising powers – in particular, an authoritarian and mercantilist China – or with dealing with the growing tensions globalization is leaving in its wake. This is because the post-war international institutions created by America were designed to manage the divisions and conflicts of another era. Dahlman warns that the current global governance architecture is singularly ill-suited to manage and mitigate the intensifying competition and interdependence of our global age; in particular, it “is not able to handle …the new binding environmental constraint. There is a risk that these frictions could lead to more serious confrontations, including trade wars, ideological wars, and even conventional wars” (p. 6).
So, what is the solution out of this rather bleak situation? There are two possibilities: first, “the most straightforward way to break this deadlock is through a major push for more sustainable energy technologies” (p. 5), and second, not only China and India must do more to resolve their differences or “address the gathering storm,” the US, along with the European Union and Japan need to assist both countries, in particular, China, address their differences, and help them create more sustainable development strategies. However, Dahlman is not optimistic regarding either possible solutions materializing any time soon. This is because there is no major push for more sustainable technologies, and the world's three leading emitters of carbon emissions (China, India and the US), are only too happy “free riding on the environment by not paying for emissions” (p. 6). Dahlman warns that the cost of putting off reforms is not an option as it will only lead to the lowering of global welfare, besides failing to address the problem of growing tensions and conflict.
Dahlman is correct to point out that the current economic development strategies adopted by China and India are not sustainable, and that both countries (indeed, the global community), need to factor in environmental constraints into their growth models. However, his unduly pessimistic prognosis about future outcomes is problematic, if not exaggerated. Arguably, Dahlman's excessive reliance on zero-sum realist conceptions of power prevents him from acknowledging how multilateral cooperation on a range of issues has helped to resolve differences, diffuse potential conflicts, and helped make Beijing an increasingly responsible global stakeholder. After all, integration and interdependence also necessitate cooperation.
Nevertheless, The World Under Pressure is a timely and accessible book that contains many valuable insights, is richly supported by empirical evidence, and cogently argued. It is a book that both seasoned experts and the layman can read with profit. I will certainly recommend this book to my students.