In The Dragon Roars Back, Suisheng Zhao makes a significant contribution to the field of Chinese foreign policy by introducing a new conceptual framework to analyse the trajectory of China's foreign policy since the Mao era. This innovative framework is designed to complement existing international relations theories by addressing the limitations of structural realism, comparative politics, and institutionalism. By offering a fresh perspective on Chinese foreign policy, Zhao's framework moves beyond the overemphasis on structural factors in realism, the attribution of behaviour solely to authoritarianism in the regime-type theory, and the focus on bureaucratic politics in institutionalism.
This leadership-centred framework integrates multiple variables to explain China's international behaviour, examining both structure and agency. Zhao argues that, in comparison to other regime types, leaders play a particularly significant role in totalitarian and authoritarian systems. This is because these systems place fewer institutional constraints on their power, providing them with more opportunities to realize their ambitions.
Zhao's analysis of Chinese foreign policy reveals a significant continuity, which is the concentration of decision-making power in the hands of a few top leaders. However, his framework goes beyond the traditional focus on leaders’ cognitive attributes, such as personality and leadership style. Instead, it enables him to examine how transformational leaders reshape the broader political and institutional environment to define priorities and implement their policies.
Zhao's categorization of China's five generations of leaders divides them into two distinct groups. Unlike those who lost power in political infighting, Mao Zedong, Deng Xiaoping and Xi Jinping are regarded as transformational leaders. They hold lifetime tenures in power and possess the political capital to change policy direction. From Mao's revolutionary diplomacy to Deng's developmental diplomacy, and now Xi's big-power diplomacy, transformational leaders have had a profound impact on the country's foreign policy priorities, defensive and offensive postures, patterns of engagement with the international community, alignments with other major powers, and relationships with its neighbours (p. 6).
In contrast, Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao can be described as transactional leaders who played a crucial role in consolidating the mechanism of collective leadership (p. 10). Operating within a higher level of institutional constraints, their ability to unilaterally dictate foreign policy decision-making was limited, which in turn created an environment that allowed for coordinated power dynamics. This approach rendered China's behaviour more pragmatic and predictable throughout their terms in office.
A noteworthy strength of this book is its extensive utilization of CCP terminologies that are notoriously difficult to translate without appropriate articulation of the context, including “four consciousnesses” and “two safeguards” (p. 13). This aspect of the book is especially beneficial for students who frequently find themselves perplexed by the facile translations commonly used in media and policy outlets. Inaccurate translation can have detrimental consequences. In the article titled “Dare to fight or dare to struggle? Translation of a Chinese political concept,” Todd Hall and Xiaoyu Pu argue that inaccurate translations, such as the phrase “dare to fight,” not only overlook the nuanced complexities embedded in the historical context of ideological struggles but also create a false impression of China's willingness to use force (Interpret: China, Center for Strategic and International Studies, 8 May 2023, https://interpret.csis.org/dare-to-fight-or-dare-to-struggle-translation-of-a-chinese-political-concept).
Given his expertise and authorship of A Nation-State by Construction: Dynamics of Modern Chinese Nationalism (Stanford University Press, 2004) and Construction of Chinese Nationalism in the Early 21st Century: Domestic Sources and International Implications (Routledge, 2014), Suisheng Zhao is well positioned to advance the framework that acknowledges the inherent tensions and intertwining of state and popular nationalism (see pp. 147–151). Zhao's extensive knowledge of Chinese nationalism spans multiple decades, providing a remarkable continuity in his analysis.
Moreover, Zhao's inclusion of updated empirical evidence since Xi Jinping's term enables a comprehensive understanding of contemporary developments and their implications. This book takes into account new developments under Xi, presenting a meaningful comparison that highlights the continuities and changes witnessed throughout the terms of three transformative leaders. By examining the leadership styles, policies and ideologies of Mao, Deng and Xi, Zhao illuminates the similarities and divergences in their approaches to setting the course of foreign policy. This combination of historical depth and contemporary analysis enriches the framework and contributes to a more nuanced understanding of transformative leaders in different geopolitical contexts.
This book provides a valuable contribution that resonates with Xuezhi Guo's work, The Politics of the Core Leader in China: Culture, Institution, Legitimacy, and Power (Cambridge University Press, 2019). Guo argues that the current regime under Xi Jinping marks a significant transition from collective leadership to a more dominant, strongman-style politics, aligning with a cyclical pattern observed throughout the history of the Chinese Communist Party. While Guo's book primarily delves into the internal power struggles within the small circles of top leaders, Zhao's book takes a distinct perspective by examining the external implications of the strongman approach on China's foreign policy and diplomacy.
Overall, this book contributes to the field of Chinese studies by introducing a new conceptual framework that enhances our understanding of transformative leaders and their role in shaping China's foreign policy. By examining the abilities and limitations of transformative leaders, The Dragon Roars Back provides valuable insights into the intricate dynamics of China's foreign policy. Its appeal extends to both scholars and policymakers who seek a comprehensive understanding of how leaders influence and navigate the complexities of Chinese foreign policy.
