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Self-exciting multifractional processes

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  25 February 2021

Salvador Ortiz-Latorre*
Affiliation:
University of Oslo
*
*Postal address: Postboks 1053 Blindern, 0316 OSLO.
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Abstract

We propose a new multifractional stochastic process which allows for self-exciting behavior, similar to what can be seen for example in earthquakes and other self-organizing phenomena. The process can be seen as an extension of a multifractional Brownian motion, where the Hurst function is dependent on the past of the process. We define this by means of a stochastic Volterra equation, and we prove existence and uniqueness of this equation, as well as giving bounds on the p-order moments, for all $p\geq1$. We show convergence of an Euler–Maruyama scheme for the process, and also give the rate of convergence, which is dependent on the self-exciting dynamics of the process. Moreover, we discuss various applications of this process, and give examples of different functions to model self-exciting behavior.

Information

Type
Research Papers
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2021. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of Applied Probability Trust
Figure 0

Figure 1. Numerical simulation of a trajectory of a SEM-gamma process for $f=0.5$ and $h(x)={{1}/{{(1+x^{2})}}}$.

Figure 1

Figure 2. Numerical simulations of trajectories of SEM-gamma processes for $h (x) ={{1}/{{(1+x^{2})}}}$ and $f\in \{ 0,0.5,1,5\} $.

Figure 2

Figure 3. Scale comparative of the SEM-gamma process with $f (x) =5$ and $h (x) ={{1}/{{(1+x^{2})}}}$.

Figure 3

Figure 4. Numerical simulation of a trajectory of a SEM-gamma process when the Hurst function is $h(x)=f (x) ={{1}/{{(1+x^{2})}}}$.

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Figure 5. Numerical simulation of a trajectory of a SEM process when the Hurst function is $h (x) ={{1}/{2}}+{{{(1/2)}}/{{(1+x^{2})}}}$.

Figure 5

Figure 6. Numerical simulation of a trajectory of a SEM process when the Hurst function is $h (x) ={{1}/{2}}-{{{(1/2)}}/{{(1+x^{2})}}}$.

Figure 6

Figure 7. SEM and SEM-gamma processes’ autocorrelation functions.