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CAA research programme – Helicopter Operations to Moving Offshore Helidecks

Part B: Probabilistic model for calculating MSI/WSI limits for offshore helicopter operations

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  11 May 2020

A. Scaperdas
Affiliation:
athena@AirOpsSafety.comAir Ops Safety LtdUK
D. Howson
Affiliation:
dave.howson@caa.co.ukCivil Aviation AuthorityUK
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Abstract

The background and rationale for the research reported in this paper is detailed in the companion paper subtitled Part A: Modelling the on-deck helicopter Reserve of Stability (ROS).

This paper (Part B) derives the fundamental principles underpinning the safe operational envelope and the definition of Motion Severity and Wind Severity Indices (MSI/WSI), and then presents the probabilistic modelling methodology developed for calculating safe limits for these parameters (MSI/WSI limits curves). The introduction of the Relative Wind Direction (RWD) as an additional limiting parameter is also discussed, together with an explanation of how RWD limits have been derived and how they are linked with the MSI/WSI limits calculation.

The MSI/WSI limits modelling methodology presented in this paper builds on the analytical helicopter stability modelling discussed in Part A. It uses a probabilistic approach to manage the variability in helicopter operations across the UK and to deal with the uncertainty of predicting helideck motion and wind conditions for the period the helicopter is landed on the helideck based on measurements taken prior to landing. This has been developed with the assistance of industry experts and has been subjected to consultation with stakeholders in the UK with the aim of identifying the right balance between enhancing safety and preserving operability.

A new Helideck Monitoring System (HMS) standard has been developed which incorporates the MSI/WSI/RWD functionality. The standard was published by the Helideck Certification Agency in April 2018 with a compliance date of 31 March 2021. Operations to moving decks not equipped with HMS meeting the new standard will be restricted to stable helideck conditions.

Information

Type
Research Article
Copyright
© The Author(s) 2020. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of Royal Aeronautical Society
Figure 0

Figure 1. Illustration of a limiting curve as a function of MMS (t) and U(t).

Figure 1

Figure 2. Illustration of the overall limiting line for a single set of helicopter/helideck operational conditions, as a function of MMS (t) and U(t).

Figure 2

Figure 3. MMS distributions of ζ for two vessel types, compared to those for linear motions.

Figure 3

Figure 4. Illustration of the expected shape of the distribution for the variance factor R.

Figure 4

Figure 5. Example of a probability distribution used to represent an operationally variable input.

Figure 5

Figure 6. Building the limits curve using Monte Carlo simulations.

Figure 6

Figure 7. Example limits curves calculated for various probabilities (worst case input parameters), realistic worst case (2.5 percentile) and 50% probability of failure.

Figure 7

Figure 8. Proposed RWD limits curves.

Figure 8

Figure 9. Reconstructed RWD trends for the G-BKZE/West Navion accident, compared against the RWD/ws amber and red limits.

Figure 9

Figure 10. MSI/WSI limits line compared to estimated values for selected examples.

Figure 10

Figure 11. An illustration of the effect of new MSI/WSI limits on operability.