The victory of the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) in the 2009 lower house election provoked excitement among Japan watchers. Scholars proclaimed that it marked the beginning of party alternation between the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the DPJ. The DPJ's performance in office, followed by its resounding defeat in the 2012 lower house election, were more sobering, leaving many political scientists more cautious. The two books under review went to press shortly after the 2009 election; however, both books, informed by an evolutionary approach to politics, avoid overly optimistic assessments, instead placing these events in historical perspective.

The books both employ historical institutionalism. The contributors to The Evolution of Japan's Party System illuminate how party politics and/or public policy influence regime shifts. Mari Miura, who also contributes to the edited volume, expands her exploration of the influence of ideas and partisan dynamics on the Japanese social protection system in Welfare through Work. Both books contribute to our understanding of the complex interaction of party politics and economic policy.

In the introduction to his edited volume, Leonard Schoppa asserts that a “regime shift” has occurred in Japanese politics, claiming that the 1955 system of LDP dominance has moved to the 2000 system of two-party competition. He suggests that this regime shift can only be understood by exploring the interaction of party politics and public policy.

Schoppa's chapter, “Path Dependence in the Evolution of Japan's Party since 1993,” establishes the theoretical frame for the volume. His central puzzle is why the new system of two-party competition provides voters an unclear choice on economic policy. Schoppa argues that even though the structure of cleavages and the preferences of voters have changed, the distribution of political parties in policy space has constrained where the DPJ can place itself. While the DPJ has been more successful than its predecessors in distinguishing itself on both security and economic policy, it has been floundering between being a party of social welfare or a party of neoliberalism. With this waffling, however, one wonders if the “regime shift” is complete. Schoppa concludes that the current party system is not necessarily stable, noting that one more realignment might be necessary, something that seems more likely following the 2012 LDP victory.

This edited volume adds to our understanding of the electoral strategies of both the LDP and the DPJ. Complementing Schoppa's discussion of the DPJ's difficulty distinguishing itself from the LDP on economic policy, Sherry Martin's chapter argues that Japanese politics have become more issue-oriented since electoral reform in 1994. Martin contends that security stances are the best predictor of vote choice between the LDP and the DPJ because the two parties are the most different in this realm, an assertion Schoppa also makes. The contrast on security certainly is not as stark as between the LDP and the Japan Socialist Party under the 1955 system. The author provides an overview of security policy positions since the 1990s, but the differences between the LDP and the DPJ could be developed in greater detail.

The chapters by Steven R. Reed and Robert J. Weiner discuss additional changes in party strategy. The Reed chapter convincingly illustrates how the new electoral rules provide incentives for different election nomination strategies. Reed's final predictions stand on shakier ground. He asserts that the LDP requires two electoral defeats before learning can occur. The reader is left wondering why two is the magic number. He also predicts that the LDP and the DPJ will be the two parties competing in 20 years, a very different position from Schoppa's hedge that one more party realignment might ensue. Weiner also indirectly enters this debate, pointing out that the DPJ is not as weak as often characterized. He provides strong evidence that the DPJ does well in a variety of districts, only struggling in the most rural areas. He also shows how the party has become more unified over time. The DPJ's persistent weakness remains the selection of quality candidates. Both chapters illuminate changes in electoral strategy but fail to consider the effects of electoral system change on party organization more broadly, especially for the LDP.

The final three chapters focus on economic policy. Patricia L. Maclachlan explores postal system reform, while A. Maria Toyoda looks at changes in the Fiscal Investment and Loan Program (FILP). The authors interpret the implications of these related reforms quite differently. Machlachlan acknowledges that postal reform was a blow to “convoy capitalism” but notes recent reversals as indicating the continued influence of interest groups. Toyoda is more optimistic that reform will stick. The basis of her optimism, however, is unclear as she acknowledges the same reversals.

Miura points to ideas and institutions that have influenced neoliberal reform and labor unions in Japan. She illustrates how the incentives of the single-member district portion of the lower house electoral system have increased the influence of salaried workers. While Labor's influence was minimized on the Council on Economic and Fiscal Policy and deregulation panels under the LDP, Rengo, the federation of labor unions, was able to pressure the opposition DPJ to advocate for amendments in the reform process. The LDP often conceded in order to avoid alienating the salaried workers, the key urban swing voters.

Overall, The Evolution of Japan's Party System makes an important contribution to our understanding of changes in party politics and policy since the 1990s. It provides new empirical insights into the workings of the DPJ and the effects of neoliberalism on policy outcomes. The theoretical framework is not evenly applied across chapters, however. Evolution functions more as a metaphor than a rigorously applied theory. By evolution, the contributors seem to suggest path dependency, not an evolutionary theory of regime shift. It would have been more effective if each chapter had addressed a common set of questions or theoretical concepts.

While the edited volume most persuasively details a “regime shift” in the political realm, Welfare through Work implicitly explores the extent to which a regime shift has occurred in the socioeconomic realm. The author points out that the Japanese welfare system rests on employment protection as opposed to income maintenance. The gendered dual system of labor provided the necessary flexibility for this system to produce high employment rates along with strong protection for regular (male) workers. Changes to the Temporary Work Agency Law, along with a prolonged economic slowdown, have produced a dramatic increase in nonregular workers since the 1990s. Parties have continued to support employment protection for regular workers, but these workers have suffered through increased overtime and transfers. Nonregular workers have little security. This problem became apparent when more men entered the nonregular category, but a solution has not been forthcoming. The result is that all workers are less well-off. Income inequality and poverty are on the rise, and one is left wondering how such a circumstance can remain unchanged. Miura provides an answer by examining how conservative ideas and party politics have led to increased dysfunction in Japan's social protection system.

Miura nicely situates her argument in the comparative literature. One of the strongest contributions is her assertion that welfare state models would benefit from a consideration of both employment maintenance and income maintenance. The failure to include employment maintenance has left many scholars at a lost as to how Japan's social protection system fits with other (mainly Western) welfare states.

Miura's explanation focuses on party politics and ideas. She explains that “what needs to be understood here is how the dynamics of partisan competition induces political parties to innovate with respect to their ideational foundation and how such policy repositioning ultimately produces policy change” (p. 5). Her explanation is distinct from other accounts, which focus on the level of industrialization, social class politics, the role of parties on the Left, and the incentives of the electoral system. Instead, her argument illustrates how social protection can be shaped by conservative parties, the only option throughout most of postwar Japanese politics.

Vision is a significant explanatory variable in Miura's framework. As she explains, “[T]he political vision and values of the governing political party greatly affect the design of the social protection system” (p. 3). While she acknowledges that parties are not unitary actors with singular visions and identifies conflicting tendencies, she does not explicitly consider the role of agency in this process. To what extent is the party's vision connected to a specific prime minister's agenda? Does leadership play a role in changing policy priorities? Vision and agency often appear conflated.

Significantly, this book highlights the social consequences of policy choices. Miura provides evidence that women who make up a large portion of nonregular workers have been disproportionately affected by neoliberal reform. Single mothers and divorced women are at the greatest risk. The inability and/or unwillingness of the government to correct the dysfunctional developments in the social protection system are particularly striking given Japan's current demographic crisis, something Miura could elaborate on. The implicit solution to solving the increased dysfunction of the welfare-through-work system seems to be to strengthen security measures for nonregular workers or expand the social safety net (p. 3), something neither party seems willing to do. One is left wondering what dynamics are necessary to produce a response to the increased risks.

In the end, these books provide a consistent picture of Japanese politics. Both works emphasize how current developments can only be understood in historical context. Both also underscore the importance of party politics on policy outcomes. One walks away from each with slightly different notions of the DPJ—Schoppa's DPJ is still struggling to define itself, whereas Miura's DPJ has the potential to change the welfare system. The levels of optimism vary by author within the edited volume, but most hold out hope that the two-party system will stick. Both books provide excellent empirical evidence to explain the path that Japanese politics has taken thus far. Predicting the future is much more difficult.