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Predicting the impact of increasing temperatures on seed germination among populations of Western Australian Banksia (Proteaceae)

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  29 May 2014

Anne Cochrane*
Affiliation:
Evolution, Ecology and Genetics, Research School of Biology, The Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia Science and Conservation Division, Department of Parks and Wildlife, Locked Bag 104, Bentley Delivery Centre, Western Australia 6983, Australia
Gemma L. Hoyle
Affiliation:
Evolution, Ecology and Genetics, Research School of Biology, The Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia
Colin J. Yates
Affiliation:
Science and Conservation Division, Department of Parks and Wildlife, Locked Bag 104, Bentley Delivery Centre, Western Australia 6983, Australia
Jeff Wood
Affiliation:
Statistical Consulting Unit, The Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia
Adrienne B. Nicotra
Affiliation:
Evolution, Ecology and Genetics, Research School of Biology, The Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia
*
*Correspondence E-mail: anne.cochrane@dpaw.wa.gov.au
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Abstract

Temperature is a significant factor influencing seed germination and for many species temperature-mediated germination cues are vital for plant persistence. Rising temperatures forecast as a result of anthropogenic climate change may have a substantial influence on the population and range dynamics of plant species. Here, we report on the thermal constraints on seed germination in natural populations of four congeneric Banksia species collected from a longitudinal climate gradient in Western Australia. We investigated whether germination niche: (1) varied between species; (2) varied among populations of each species; and (3) varied in a consistent manner reflecting the climatic gradients of seed origin. We hypothesized that species would differ and that populations from warmer sites would have a broader temperature window for germination than populations from cooler sites. Species differed in the breadth of their germination niche, but temperatures that stimulated the most rapid and complete germination were similar across all species. A sharp reduction in germination percentage occurred above the optimum temperature, which coincided with significant delays in germination relative to the optimum. The temperatures causing these declines varied among populations. Across the species, there was a significant correlation between optimum germination temperature and mean annual temperature at seed source; however, there was no relationship at the population level for individual species. These data provide insight into the vulnerability of Banksia species to climate change, with those populations that require lower temperatures for germination, or have narrower optimal ranges for germination, likely to be most vulnerable to a warming climate.

Information

Type
Research Papers
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2014 
Figure 0

Table 1 Geographic distribution, rainfall gradient (H, high rain; M, medium rain; L, low rain) and site details for populations of four fire-killed Banksia species from the SWAFR. Mean annual precipitation (MAP; mm) and mean annual temperature (MAT; °C) were extrapolated from bioclimatic data from WorldClim, a set of global climate layers with a spatial resolution of approximately 1 km2 (Hijmans et al., 2005)

Figure 1

Figure 1 (colour online) Geographic distribution of the four study species (small symbols) and specific seed source sites (large symbols) in the South Western Australian Floristic Region.

Figure 2

Table 2 Species values (± standard error) for the germination niche parameters (mean of six populations per species). Maximum germination (Gmax), the temperatures at which maximum germination occurred (Topt), mean time to germination (MTG) for maximum final germination percentage, the slope of the decline between 90% and 50% germination (S90–50), the slope of the delay between 50 and 90% germination (MTG50–90), the breadth of the temperature niche for 50% (Tb50) and 90% germination (Tb90), the upper and lower temperatures that gave 50% (Tu50, Tl50) and 90% of maximum germination (Tu90, Tl90) and the maximum temperatures which gave 1% (T1). Species trait values with the same superscript are not significantly different at P<0.05

Figure 3

Figure 2 The impact of constant temperatures on mean germination response in four Banksia species from Western Australia. Points represent mean germination values and the fitted line is the predicted response for each species. (a) Final germination percentage and (b) mean time to germination. Banksia baxteri (▲), B. coccinea (○), B. media (●) and B. quercifolia (Δ).

Figure 4

Figure 3 The temperature windows for species germination for (a) 50% and (b) 90% of maximum germination. Mean optimum temperature for each species indicated by ●. Banksia baxteri (Bb), B. coccinea (Bc), B. media (Bm) and B. quercifolia (Bq).

Figure 5

Figure 4 Germination response to above-optimum constant temperatures in populations of four Banksia species: (a–d) final germination percentage; and (e–h) mean time to germination (MTG). The linear predictor of response (slope) represents the decline in germination (left panels) or the increase in MTG (right panels) from maximum (scaled to 100%), through 90 and 50% germination, to the temperature intercept where germination response is < 1%. H, high rainfall populations (solid lines); M, medium rainfall populations (dashed lines); and L, low rainfall populations (fine dotted lines).

Figure 6

Table 3 Results of analysis of variance examining the effect of climate (n=3) and population (pop.; n=2 per climate) on germination niche parameters. Abbreviations as for Table 2

Figure 7

Figure 5 The relationship between mean annual temperature (MAT °C) at the geographical location of seed source and (a) optimum temperature for maximum germination (Topt) and (b) mean time to germination at maximum germination (MTG) (n= 24 populations). Solid black line represents the fit of the relationship between germination response and MAT along the gradient. Banksia baxteri (▲), B. coccinea (○), B. media (●) and B. quercifolia (Δ). Pearson's correlation r and significance of the relationship are displayed in each panel.