CAN FICTIONAL STORIES INFLUENCE REAL WORLD OPINIONS?

The influence of the tremendously popular Harry Potter series has been compared to that of Harriet Beecher Stowe’s Uncle Tom’s Cabin, a book that was widely credited with “galvanizing public opinion against slavery” (Strange Reference Strange, Green, Strange and Brock2002: 263; see also Time 2007). But then, as now, there is sparse evidence from empirical research that fictional stories, even extremely popular ones, influence political opinion.

Political leaders in the United States often express concerns about how fictional television programming may influence mass opinion (e.g., “Dan Quayle” 1992). For example, Republican vice-presidential candidate Mike Pence once called Disney’s “Mulan” liberal propaganda, arguing that it would change people’s opinions on women in combat positions (Shabad Reference Shabad2016). Despite frequent claims about fiction’s potential to change real world opinion, research on media effects has been focused on the influence of non-fiction programming. Only a handful of studies have examined whether fiction is capable of influencing political attitudes by virtue of the lessons taught in their plotlines. When stories feature clear protagonists with whom audience members identify, this mechanism is hypothesized to facilitate attitude change. But such findings have been far from consistent. Many studies have not produced the anticipated attitudinal change (e.g., Sigelman & Sigelman Reference Sigelman and Sigelman1974; Feldman & Sigelman Reference Feldman and Sigelman1985; Holbert et al. Reference Holbert, Pillion, Tschida, Armfield, Kinder, Cherry and Daulton2003; Holbert, Shah and Kwak Reference Holbert, Shah and Kwak2003; Reference Holbert, Shah and Kwak2004). Others have demonstrated significant influence on public attitudes (French and van Hoorn Reference French and van Hoorn1986; Lenart and McGraw Reference Lenart and McGraw1989; Mutz and Nir Reference Mutz and Nir2010).

In almost all of these studies, experimental designs have been used to assess the impact of a story on its audience. Experiments are the method of choice for two main reasons. First, random assignment to treatment naturally makes causal inference easier. In addition, few fictional stories have had large enough audiences to register a significant impact in observational studies. Even stories that produce a strong impact on the political preferences in a laboratory setting may register little overall impact on the public at large.

In this respect, the Harry Potter series may be different from most stories. Few fictional stories have become quite the cultural phenomenon that Harry Potter has. The books have sold more than 450 million copies worldwide, making it the best-selling book series in history, and making their author the first ever billionaire author (Watson Reference Watson2004). In the United States, nine thousand FedEx trucks were used to deliver the initial release of The Goblet of Fire alone (Fierman Reference Fierman2005). The last four books were the fastest-selling books in history, with the final book selling roughly eleven million copies in the United States within 24 hours of its release (New York Times 2007). So unprecedented is Harry Potter’s popularity that the word muggle, referring to a person without magical powers, has made it into the Oxford English Dictionary (McCaffrey Reference McCaffrey2003).

THE POLITICS OF HARRY POTTER

The political messages of this wildly popular series have been hotly debated by literary critics. It has been attacked by both conservatives and liberals alike. For example, a review in the liberal Guardian described it as conservative and paternalistic (Adams Reference Adams2003). Other critics from the Left faulted it for being sexist, with patriarchal stereotypes and adherence to “the conventional assumption that men do and should run the world” (Schoefer Reference Schoefer2000). Still others critiqued it for promoting free market values and a “culture of competition” (Yokaris Reference Yokaris2004).

Conservatives, meanwhile, have criticized the books and movies for promoting a liberal political agenda. As one critic put it, the stories “are, in fact, a ferocious critique of consumer society and the world of free enterprise” (Lichfield Reference Lichfield2004). When author J.K. Rowling suggested that Albus Dumbledore was gay, Bill O’Reilly asked if it was part of a “gay agenda” to indoctrinate children (Associated Press 2007): “By dubbing someone so respected, so talented and so kind, as someone who just happens to be also homosexual, she’s reinforcing the idea that a person’s gayness is not something of which they should be ashamed.” Although author J.K. Rowling denies having had a specific political agenda, as she further explained, “I wanted Harry to leave our world and find … the same problems in the wizarding world… hierarchy…bigotry, and this notion of purity…crops up all over the world.”

Despite differing perceptions of the books’ prevailing ideology, there is a consensus surrounding at least three themes. These include 1) the value of tolerance and respect for difference; 2) opposition to violence and punitiveness; and 3) the dangers of authoritarianism. These same three themes are prominent in coverage of Donald Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign. Because Trump’s political views are widely viewed as opposed to the values espoused in the Harry Potter series, exposure to the Potter series may play an influential role in affecting how Americans respond to Donald Trump.

RESEARCH TO DATE

Research on the Harry Potter series is limited. To date, only one empirical study has examined hypotheses about its political impact. Based on a convenience sample of over 1,100 undergraduate students from seven universities, Gierzynski (Reference Gierzynski and Eddy2013) argues that Potter fans are more tolerant than non-fans; further, Potter fans are systematically more positive in their attitudes toward outgroups such as Muslims and gays, and significantly more supportive of government efforts to promote equality. These relationships persist even after controlling for authoritarianism, although other potentially important factors, such as eventual educational attainment, were not taken into account. Even more important, political ideology and party predispositions were not taken into account. And although controlling for authoritarianism certainly makes causality more plausible, the modified authoritarianism scale used in this student study has not yet been validated.

Gierzynski (Reference Gierzynski and Eddy2013) also finds that college student Potter fans report less authoritarian views, although this may result from the fact that they are more liberal, a characteristic that is not included in the model. The most convincing analysis shows that Potter fans are less supportive of punitive policies after controlling for ideology. Whether these relationships persist in surveys other than this convenience sample of college students and in the presence of more rigorous controls remains to be seen. In this study, I use representative national panel data collected between 2014 and 2016 to test these hypotheses in the broader context of the American adult population. Further, by including more fully specified models, I provide more exacting tests of three hypotheses consistent with this theory:

A fourth and final hypothesis concerns the relative impact of reading Harry Potter books to viewing the movies. This comparison is complicated by the fact that it is not only the medium that changes. In order to accommodate the usual length of feature films, not everything in the books could be included in the movies. In addition, visual details provided in the movies could not be specified as concretely through prose. As a result, audio-visual media and print rarely, if ever, convey precisely the same information. The movies are particularly likely to emphasize action scenes over perspective on the characters’ internal dilemmas; introspection rarely provides good visuals.

In studies of the American news media, print has long been viewed as more effective than television in encouraging political learning due to its structural characteristics. Exposure to television can occur with very low levels of attention to the content, and thus low levels of learning. Consuming print, on the other hand, automatically demands high levels of attention, so it is not surprising that those who consume a story via print tend to learn and remember more (Neuman Reference Neuman1974; Culbertson and Stempel Reference Culbertson and Stempel1986; Mondak Reference Mondak1995; Chaffee and Frank Reference Chaffee and Frank1996; Chaffee and Kanihan Reference Chaffee and Kanihan1997). For both of these reasons—content differences as well as the means of consumption—I predict stronger effects from print than from movies.

RESEARCH METHODS

Representative national probability surveys collected by GfK Research provide the raw material for this analysis. A total of 1,142 respondents completed both waves of the survey relevant to this study. To measure the two independent variables, a survey administered in 2014 asked all respondents about their extent of exposure to the Harry Potter story through either books or movies (see online appendix). Each person’s scores were summed.

More people have seen Harry Potter movies than have read Harry Potter books. As shown in the left panel of figure 1, exposure is higher among younger respondents for both movies and books. As shown in the right panel of figure 1, book readership is less likely to reflect pre-existing partisan views. There is no discernible association between party identification and being more or less likely to have read the Harry Potter books. But when it comes to viewing movies, Republicans are systematically less likely to have seen the Harry Potter movies. This is perhaps due to greater awareness of content in the series that some Republicans oppose, such as violence and witchcraft. But it is also true that Republicans view fewer movies in general than Democrats (Franklin Reference Franklin2006).

Figure 1

Harry Potter Book Readers and Movie Viewers, by Age and Party Identification

Analysis of variance demonstrated significant differences by age in both reading Harry Potter books and seeing Harry Potter movies. When broken down by party identification, there were no significant differences in the extent of book reading by party. Movie viewing was significantly lower among Republicans.

There are three dependent variables in this study. To parallel the major themes in Harry Potter with the potential to influence reactions to Trump’s candidacy, measures tapped tolerance of outgroups, opposition to punitive policies, and a general feelings toward Trump. To tap tolerance of diverse others, feeling thermometer ratings were assessed for attitudes toward Muslims and homosexuals. An index of punitive policy preferences was created by taking the mean level of opposition to three punitive policies: 1) the use of torture to extract information, 2) killing terrorists, and 3) supporting the death penalty. As a measure of attitudes toward Trump, the 2016 wave of this panel survey included a feeling thermometer asking all respondents to rate their feelings toward him on a 0 to 100 scale (see online appendix for details).

Observational data are limited in the strength of causal arguments that can be made. Nonetheless, because the goal of these analyses is to examine these hypotheses as causal theories, I include control variables in all models in order to take into account potentially spurious causes of both Trump support and exposure to Harry Potter. All models included gender (females were expected to rate Trump poorly), education (expected to negatively predict Trump support), age (expected to positively predict Trump support), and evangelical self-identification (expected to discourage both tolerance of Muslims and gays, and consuming stories about wizards). Two dummy variables accounted for party identification, and ideology was measured on the usual seven-point scale.

Although these variables cover the most obvious sources of potentially spurious relationships, they do not tap personality traits that might drive support for Trump as well as reluctance to read books or see movies in general, or reluctance to read the Harry Potter series in particular. Toward that end, I incorporated a scale tapping social dominance orientation, a personality trait that taps differences in an individual’s preference for hierarchy and the domination over lower-status groups by high status groups. Social dominance orientation is a personality trait predisposing an individual toward anti-egalitarianism. People high in social dominance are power seekers who, like Trump and Voldemort, are driven to “Win! Win! Win!” ^{Footnote 5} and dominate others (see Altemeyer Reference Altemeyer2006). Not surprisingly, social dominance has a strong positive relationship with both authoritarianism and racism (see Pratto et al. Reference Pratto2012).

SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL

To view supplementary material for this article, please visit http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S1049096516001633.Footnote *