Overcoming the Oppressors: White and Black in Southern Africa is an impressively detailed and illuminating contribution to our understanding of the political history of this important region, and of the political economy of development more generally. The author, Robert I. Rotberg, has been researching, teaching, reporting, commenting, and advising about the African continent for over six decades. His close-range observation of and frequent involvement in the politics and policy of the region figures prominently on the pages. Drawing on a wealth of primary and secondary research, the book presents substantial scholarly research embedded within a memoir of a scholar-statesman.

With lively and engaging prose, peppered with personal accounts, Rotberg seeks to make sense of how the optimistic end of white rule in Southern Africa gave way to so many disappointments in terms of economic and development outcomes. While the ups and downs of most of post-colonial Africa might also be described in such terms, the book sets its gaze on the Southern part of the continent, where white rule was more thoroughgoing and persisted longer, as the last vestiges were only formally put to rest with the 1994 election of Nelson Mandela in South Africa.

The book begins with a discussion of a disingenuous British colonial effort in the late-1950s to develop a multi-racial federal partnership in the administration of several territories in the Southern African region. Black Africans could see clearly, Rotberg explains, that the British were not interested in a truly equal citizenship. Rather, they wanted to give away just enough autonomy and representation so as to quell discontent, while still maintaining control. The telling of this episode sets the stage for both a wave of African resistance and for the beginning of Rotberg’s own career, which would unfold over the next 60-plus years.

He then goes on to recount, in two chapters each, the subsequent political paths of Zambia, Malawi, and South Africa, and then single chapters for each of Botswana, Zimbabwe, and Namibia. The smaller countries of Lesotho, eSwatini (formerly Swaziland), the Lusophone Angola, and Mozambique are discussed only in passing.

The great value of the book is the masterful accounting of these countries’ political histories, chronicled through a single set of eyes over time. With only a few exceptions—save the work of veteran Africanists such as Goran Hyden or Crawford Young—most such comparative accounts rely heavily on a variety of external filters.

In turn, Rotberg details many similarities and also key differences across countries, leading him to advance the central puzzle of the book: Why has the quality of governance been so much better, and consistently so, in the small country of Botswana relative to the other countries of the region? Put another way, why have the others, for the most part, not lived up to their promise? To a lesser extent, he also describes over-time change in a few countries, but mostly he highlights decline, and offers just a few glimmers of hope in his assessment of recently installed leaders in Malawi, Zambia, and guardedly, South Africa.

What is Rotberg’s answer? Few political scientists today, myself included, rigorously consider perhaps the most conventional wisdom out there about the drivers of good government: political leadership. Rotberg takes this thesis seriously and, in his narratives, offers a robust history of the role played by most of Southern Africa’s chief executives since independence.

Rotberg met and observed many of these leaders at close range and shares thoughtful reflections of what they did, the influences on their own lives, and the impact of their efforts and misdeeds on citizens. In addition, Rotberg highlights that perhaps the most notoriously poor chief executives—Zimbabwe’s Robert Mugabe and South Africa’s Jacob Zuma—were not alone in their respective failures to lead with integrity and in the public interest. Rather, they were simply key examples of an otherwise undistinguished cohort across five countries, and he provides details of the various poor behaviors and policy choices that most made.

He concludes that “the destinies of the peoples of southern Africa have largely been, and are still, determined by the predilections and political strategies of those men and women who emerged after 1964 as its leaders” (p. 304). From this, Rotberg offers the more general assertion that “effective leadership separates endeavors that succeed from those that fail … Effective and imaginative political leadership delivers stability and a dampening of intercommunal violence” (p. 307).

The argument is presented inductively in the sense that Rotberg relates each of the country histories, highlighting salient aspects of political development generally from the twilight of colonial or settler rule until the present; then, in his concluding chapter, “Leaders of Integrity Conquer Africa’s Consummate Challenges,” he tries to account for the between-country and over-time variation in quality of governance and related outcomes. In the pages of the book, we learn that Rotberg’s own long career focused on teaching and training political leadership especially at Harvard’s Institute for International Development (one section is titled, “Harvard to the rescue”), including his work on the well-known Mo Ibrahim governance index and its predecessor. This background gives the reader good reason to believe that he approached this recently published book with a clear leadership lens. He does not focus on alternative accounts in any systematic manner but does occasionally share his estimation that other factors have been important.

Rotberg’s book reminds us that agency and historical contingency are highly consequential, and the kinds of structural variables that one might find in a cross-country database, or a more traditional comparative-historical account provide only a partial view of the reality of political life. Whether leaders seek to unify or to divide, to serve in the public interest, or to grab for themselves, whether they fully understand the constellation of forces lined up against them – these are all highly consequential for human welfare.

That said, for all of the careful recounting of the respective political histories, and the role played by political leaders, I remain unpersuaded that such a strong focus on leadership is warranted for understanding the relative development fortunes across Southern Africa.

Firstly, the book underplays the role of institutions. Rotberg writes that “because the nations of the developing world often lack fully rooted systems of democracy, who leads makes more of a difference than it does in the developed parts of the planet” (p. 307). And yet within the six countries portrayed in his book, we find enormous variation in political institutions: Botswana, Namibia, and South Africa have, for at least three decades, been consistently rated as the strongest democracies in the region, and associated development outcomes are quite different from those of their neighbors. Moreover, in his consideration of politics and development outcomes on the rest of the African continent, he recognizes that in many ways, several—if not all—of the five “failed” Southern African cases may be more similar to the Botswanan success story than to countries in much of the rest of the continent.

Like Rotberg, I was optimistic about the Ramaphosa presidency and what might be accomplished with an individual so clearly smart, skilled, and broadly engaging at the helm of South Africa’s government. And yet, in many of the areas where the country has been suffering, as of this writing, we have yet to see much resembling a turnaround despite Ramaphosa’s stated intentions. His efforts have been constrained by increased political polarization, the fracturing of the African National Congress (ANC), the shadow of corrupt practices, and under-investment in infrastructure maintenance, all highlighting the limits to a leadership explanation—even in a relatively young democracy.

Relatedly, while none can doubt that South Africa’s Jacob Zuma sold out influence and public resources to domestic and foreign bidders, it is not clear to me that a focus on poor leadership is the best analytic lens for this outcome. Even prior to his ascendancy, Zuma had demonstrated himself to be corrupt and inept. He famously claimed to be not at risk for HIV infection after having sexual relations with an HIV-positive woman because he had showered afterwards. Despite a poor track record, his party selected him as leader, and few ANC voters were repelled by the choice. It begs the question of the drivers of leadership selection at least as much as of the leader.

It can be difficult to champion the value of a focus on leadership if good leadership can only be identified with hindsight. In Rotberg’s account, factors such as education, experience, or networks are not particularly predictive. He says that Botswana’s leaders such as Khama and Masire had “clear-eyed visions” of what progress would look like. Is that truly knowable ex ante? What is the solution for the challenges of any of these countries today? Would any of us be able to recognize a sure-fire vision if presented with one? I am surprised by how often even the best intentions turn sour.

There is no denying that Botswana has been a success story, and there is good reason to conclude that several of its leaders were visionary. Yet several other plausible arguments have been advanced, including the particular configuration of tribal interests, the limited influence of the British crown, the establishment of property rights, and diamond revenues (see James A. Robinson, Daron Acemoglu, and Simon Johnson, 2003, “An African Success Story: Botswana” in Search of Prosperity: Analytic Narratives on Economic Growth, edited by Dani Rodrik). Bad leadership decisions and bad policies could certainly have tilted the country in another direction, but many other factors appeared to have been at least somewhat necessary for success.

These theoretical challenges notwithstanding, there is much to be learned from this thoughtful, comparative history. Rotberg brings back a welcome attention to the role of political agency with a lively narrative flair.