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Published online by Cambridge University Press: 11 June 2004
Few serious observers of American politics would deny that race continues to play an important role in U.S. elections. At the same time, much has changed since segregationist politicians used race baiting as a way to ensure victory in the South and possibly other places. In his book, Matthew Streb explores the way that race was used by gubernatorial candidates in the late 1990s. He lays out theoretical expectations about when racial appeals are likely to be used, and he presents issue agendas on which candidates from each major party can run successfully.
Streb argues that candidates behave strategically in deciding what issues to push during a campaign. The two most critical factors in terms of using racial issues are 1) the percentage of the state's population that is African American and 2) the percentage of the state's population that is working-class white. The degree to which the state's electorate is receptive to racial messages is shaped by these two contextual factors. Republican candidates are most likely to use racial appeals in states with large populations of both blacks and working-class whites. Poorer white voters will be more willing to see blacks as an economic and political threat in those states. Unlike the pre–Voting Rights Act era, implicit racial issues are more likely to be effective today. Democratic candidates have no reason to employ racial issues, instead emphasizing class-based appeals to unite lower-income white and black voters. The smaller the percentage of African Americans and working-class whites in a state, the less likely a candidate will use racial appeals.
To test his theory, Streb examines gubernatorial campaigns in seven states in 1998 (Alabama, Georgia, Arkansas, Ohio, Iowa, and Massachusetts) and 1997 (Virginia). The states are categorized along two dimensions: high, medium, or low black population and high or low working class white population. His qualitative data come from interviews with politicos, journalists, and academics; from newspapers; and from campaign advertisements. He also collects quantitative data from a content analysis of newspaper articles and campaign ads, which are used to see what issues are being discussed in the campaign and whether the candidates are setting the issue agenda. Finally, exit-poll data show how voters responded to the campaigns offered up by the candidates.
While the book is about race rather than region, the only states in which more than a quarter of the population is black are the five Deep South states. No southern states fall into the low black population category (less than 10%). To enhance his ability to compare across regions, Streb examines two southern states and one northern state from the middle category.
The author's content analysis shows that candidates did not resort to explicit racial appeals in 1998, even in the heavily black states he examines. The qualitative evidence suggests a slightly more nuanced conclusion, however. Even when racial issues are not a part of a candidate's campaign arsenal, racial controversies can emerge through endorsements or campaign techniques. Other candidates on the party ticket can introduce a racial dimension independent of the gubernatorial candidate's attention to racial issues. For example, Republican Guy Millner in Georgia may have alienated black voters with his opposition to affirmative action, but the presence of three African American candidates running statewide as Democrats and racially insensitive comments by the GOP candidate for lieutenant governor had an impact as well.
How can candidates forge winning coalitions centered on black and poor white voters? Streb argues that Democratic candidates should emphasize class-based issues that appeal to voters from each race without alienating voters from the other. Republican candidates can use race to win the favor of lower-class whites, but only if the black population of the state is large enough to make the racial threat viable. They can appeal to blacks using social issues, religion, education, and economic development, but issue-based appeals only appear to work when the candidate has built prior trust with the African American community. The idea of “issue ownership”—emphasizing issues that are associated with the party—also plays an important role in Streb's analysis.
One weakness of the book is that the generalizability of its conclusions may be limited by case selection and time. Was the 1997–98 election cycle unique? One might reasonably expect a different pattern of racial appeals in times of economic uncertainty, compared to the reasonably robust economy during the period under examination. The Clinton impeachment saga might have played a role in mobilizing black voters in Georgia and Alabama. The lack of a strong Democratic challenger in Arkansas may have allowed the Republican incumbent to reach across racial lines in a manner made more difficult in a close election.
Streb does not examine the role of turnout, especially for African Americans, in these elections. Black turnout was up substantially in the states with the most homogeneous black voting (Georgia and Alabama). In Arkansas, where almost half of black voters chose the Republican candidate, African Americans comprised only 9% of the voting public in 1998, well down from 27% eight years earlier (p. 108). These differences are noted but not explained. Potential voters must first decide whether to cast a ballot before deciding which candidate to support. Differences in black turnout may reflect the ability of the Democratic candidate to appeal to this core constituency. It may also stem from factors outside the gubernatorial race.
Streb's content analysis does not capture these subtleties, but his qualitative analysis generally does. Unfortunately, there is some imbalance in the strength of the interview data from state to state. In Georgia and Alabama (where stronger racial appeals are found), his reliance on journalists and academics gives the impression of objectivity. The named sources in Arkansas are primarily Republican operatives whose glowing reports of appeals across racial lines might well be suspect. The unique aspects of the Arkansas election in terms of black turnout and candidate preference compound this deficiency.
Despite these weaknesses, The New Electoral Politics of Race does much to clarify the role that race continues to play in electoral contests. The theoretical argument for when candidates are likely to use racial appeals is especially important. Matthew Streb's book should be read by students of race, elections, and southern politics.