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Invasion percolation solves Fermi Paradox but challenges SETI projects

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  05 April 2018

E. Galera
Affiliation:
Departamento de Física – FFCLRP, USP, Av. dos Bandeirantes 3900, CEP 14040-901, Ribeirão Preto, SP, Brazil
G. R. Galanti
Affiliation:
Departamento de Física – FFCLRP, USP, Av. dos Bandeirantes 3900, CEP 14040-901, Ribeirão Preto, SP, Brazil
O. Kinouchi*
Affiliation:
Departamento de Física – FFCLRP, USP, Av. dos Bandeirantes 3900, CEP 14040-901, Ribeirão Preto, SP, Brazil
*
Author for correspondence: O. Kinouchi, E-mail: okinouchi@gmail.com
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Abstract

Non-homogeneous fractal-like colonization processes, where the cluster of visited sites has large voids and grows slowly, could explain the negative results of Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI) preserving the possibility of a galactic spanning civilization. Here we present a generalized invasion percolation model to illustrate a minimal colonization process with large voids and delayed colonization. Spatial correlation between unvisited sites, in the form of large empty regions, suggests that to search civilizations in the Sun neighbourhood may be a misdirected SETI strategy. A weaker form of the Fermi Paradox also suggests this last conclusion.

Information

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2018 
Figure 0

Fig.1. Earth nocturnal lights suggest that several regions, of very different areas, are not colonized by the global technological civilization. Credit: Data courtesy Marc Imhoff of NASA GSFC and Christopher Elvidge of NOAA NGDC. Image by Craig Mayhew and Robert Simmon, NASA GSFC.

Figure 1

Fig. 2. From top to bottom, left to right, clusters with β = 0, 5, 10, 15, 20 and 25. The initial seed is at i = 50, j = 50 and the stop criteria is that the cluster touches some border.

Figure 2

Fig. 3. Complementary cumulative distribution P(s > S) of void sizes for β = 10 and 25. The straight line with exponent −1 is a guide for the eyes.

Figure 3

Fig. 4. Density of visited sites ρ(t) for different values of β. Each solid curve is the average over ten runs. The dashed lines denote the maximum and the minimum ρ over these runs and gives an idea of the dispersion of the results.

Figure 4

Fig. 5. Mean colonization time t(β) for different values of colonization density ρ as a function of diffusion difficulty β. We use a timescale where Δt = 1000 years and the vertical axis is given in years.

Figure 5

Table 1. Curve fit parameters: y = C (αβ)−1 [exp(αβ)−1]

Figure 6

Fig. 6. Final density of the colonization clusters as a function of β. With higher β, we have less dense (with more voids) clusters.

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Fig. 7. Mean colonization time t(ρ) for different values of difficulty parameter β as a function of colonization density ρ. We use a timescale where Δt = 1000 years and the vertical axis is given in years.