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Diffusion approximation of multi-class Hawkes processes: Theoretical and numerical analysis

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  08 October 2021

Julien Chevallier*
Affiliation:
Université Grenoble Alpes
Anna Melnykova*
Affiliation:
Université de Cergy-Pontoise and Université Grenoble Alpes
Irene Tubikanec*
Affiliation:
Johannes Kepler University Linz
*
*Postal address: Université Grenoble Alpes, LJK UMR-CNRS 5224.
**Postal address: Université de Cergy-Pontoise, AGM UMR-CNRS 8088.
***Postal address: Institute for Stochastics, Johannes Kepler University Linz.
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Abstract

Oscillatory systems of interacting Hawkes processes with Erlang memory kernels were introduced by Ditlevsen and Löcherbach (Stoch. Process. Appl., 2017). They are piecewise deterministic Markov processes (PDMP) and can be approximated by a stochastic diffusion. In this paper, first, a strong error bound between the PDMP and the diffusion is proved. Second, moment bounds for the resulting diffusion are derived. Third, approximation schemes for the diffusion, based on the numerical splitting approach, are proposed. These schemes are proved to converge with mean-square order 1 and to preserve the properties of the diffusion, in particular the hypoellipticity, the ergodicity, and the moment bounds. Finally, the PDMP and the diffusion are compared through numerical experiments, where the PDMP is simulated with an adapted thinning procedure.

Information

Type
Original Article
Copyright
© The Author(s) 2021. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of Applied Probability Trust
Figure 0

Figure 1. First (left panel) and second (right panel) moment bounds with respective trajectories of the inhibitory population $k=1$. The rate function $f_2$ is given in Section 5. The parameters are $\eta_1=3$, $\nu_1=2$, $N=20$, and $p_2=1/2$.

Figure 1

Figure 2. First (left panel) and second (right panel) moment bounds of the excitatory population $k=2$ for different values of $\nu_2$. The moment bounds for the diffusion are in solid lines and the moment bounds for the splitting scheme are in dashed lines. The bound of the rate function is fixed to $f_1^{\max} = 1$. The parameters are $\eta_2=3$, $N=100$, $p_{1}=1/2$, and the time step $\Delta=0.1$ is used.

Figure 2

Figure 3. Intensity and intensity bounds for the second population (excitatory), $t\in[20, 100]$. Red solid line: true intensity $\lambda^2_t$. Black dashed line: $\tilde{f}_2^{\tilde\Delta}(\bar X_t)$. Grey dashed line: $\tilde{f}_2(\bar X_t)$. Intensity functions $f_1$ and $f_2$ are given in (28); $\nu_1=\nu_2 = 0.9$, $N_1 = N_2 = 50$.

Figure 3

Algorithm 1: Simulation of model (1) with K = 2 populations.

Figure 4

Figure 4. Mean-square order of convergence. The reference solution is obtained with the Euler–Maruyama method and the small time step $\Delta=10^{-5}$. The numerical solutions are calculated for $\Delta=10^{-4},10^{-3},10^{-2},10^{-1}$. The time $t^*$ is 1, and $M=10^3$.

Figure 5

Figure 5. Sample trajectories of the system, simulated with the Euler–Maruyama scheme (top), the Lie–Trotter splitting scheme (middle), and the Strang splitting scheme (bottom), for varying $\Delta$.

Figure 6

Figure 6. Phase portrait of the main variables, simulated with the Euler–Maruyama scheme (top), the Lie–Trotter splitting scheme (middle), and the Strang splitting scheme (bottom), for varying $\Delta$ and $x_0=(0,0,-3.5,-4,0,1.3,1.1)$.

Figure 7

Figure 7. Empirical density of the system, simulated with the Euler–Maruyama scheme (top), the Lie–Trotter splitting scheme (middle), and the Strang splitting scheme (bottom), for varying $\Delta$ and $T = 10^5$. The red dashed vertical lines denote the mean of the main variables.

Figure 8

Figure 8. Mean execution time for the PDMP (solid line) and the stochastic diffusion (dashed line) simulation for $t_{\max}=100$ over 100 realizations. Left panel: $f_1(x) = f_2(x) = \min\{1+x\unicode{x1D7D9}_{[x>0]}, 10\}$. Right panel: $f_1$ and $f_2$ are given by Equation (28). The rest of the parameters are given in the beginning of Section 5.

Figure 9

Figure 9. Mean execution time for the PDMP and the stochastic diffusion (dashed line) simulation for $t_{\max}=50$ over 100 realizations. Left panel: $f_1(x) = f_2(x) = \min\{a+x\unicode{x1D7D9}_{[x>0]}, 40\}$. Right panel: $f_1(x) = f_2(x) = \min\{a+e^x, 40\}$, where the parameter a varies between $0.02$ and 1 with a step of $0.02$. The rest of the parameters are given in the beginning of Section 5; $N_1 = N_2 = 25$.

Figure 10

Figure 10. Sample trajectories of the PDMP and the diffusion for varying N (excitatory population). Solid line: main variable of $\bar{X}$. Dashed line: main variable of X (simulated with the Strang splitting scheme, using $\Delta = 0.01$).

Figure 11

Figure 11. Empirical density of PDMP and the diffusion for $N=20$ (left) and $N=100$ (right). Solid line: $\bar{X}$. Dashed line: X (simulated with the splitting scheme, $\Delta = 0.1$, $T=10^5$). The red solid and dashed vertical lines denote the mean of the respective main variables.