Supreme Court justices want power and influence. They desire compliance with their decisions and uniform interpretation of federal law among the lower courts (Black et al. Reference Black2016). Justices’ influence rests on their ability to affect the choices of many public officials, particularly lower court judges, because their treatment of precedent determines the extent to which the Court’s policy choices direct outcomes in future cases (Canon and Johnson Reference Canon1999; Hansford and Spriggs Reference Hansford2006). Research suggests that justices rely upon foreign law to strategically prop up controversial and ideologically charged decisions, hoping to improve the reception of the decision (Black, Owens, and Brookhart Reference Black2014; Black et al. Reference Black2014).Footnote 1 Prior findings also indicate that they are successful in one sense: they obtain an increase in case importance or influence, as measured by total citations (Stobb Reference Stobb2018). However, reliance upon foreign law is a provocative practice, particularly when employed to interpret the US Constitution. Referred to as constitutional cross-fertilization (Slaughter Reference Slaughter2004), this behavior has been characterized by prominent legal scholars, including Justice Scalia, as a threat to American democracy.Footnote 2 Therefore, although the tactic has its benefits, it may also have significant costs. The practice could thwart efforts to attain the coveted goal of lower court deference, particularly in high-stakes constitutional cases.
I argue that, because of the manner in which foreign law is employed, lower court judges are more likely to consider cases with these references relevant, but not more likely to find them controlling in their decisions. In short, justices do not engage with the reasoning underlying foreign practices and therefore fail to convince readers of their value. In addition, justices’ reliance upon foreign law when interpreting the Constitution triggers significant backlash. This controversy will breed suspicion that undercuts the effectiveness of the practice at increasing an opinion’s persuasive power. Thus, when employed in constitutional cases, the tactic is likely to be associated with an increase in negative, rather than positive, legal treatments. Testing my expectations on a database of approximately 1,000 appellate court decisions citing a sample of Supreme Court cases, my findings support my argument.
This research supports the growing recognition among law and courts scholars that legal language is meaningful and has an impact on the development of the law (Black and Spriggs Reference Black2013), specifically contributing to the literature examining the significance of Supreme Court opinion content. A majority of specialists in judicial politics agree that the Court’s policy-making power resides in its majority opinions (including the legal reasoning that supports the outcome) because they are the primary mechanism through which the Court impacts society (Hansford and Spriggs Reference Hansford2006; Hall Reference Hall2010; Black et al. Reference Black2016). Scholars seek to understand why some precedents have a larger impact than others (Canon and Johnson Reference Canon1999). I investigate the extent to which the type of support judges employ affects the impact of Supreme Court precedent. My results underscore the value of looking to opinion content to explain the significance of a case. In addition, my findings inform a salient public debate. As many suggest that the use of foreign law will only escalate in the future (Curry and Miller Reference Curry2008), evidence concerning the incentives driving the practice are of increasing worth.
This paper proceeds as follows. First, I review existing evidence concerning the circumstances under which the Court relies upon foreign law, highlighting results indicating that justices employ the references to gain a positive response to their opinion. I then argue that justices’ hopes are not entirely fulfilled, and present my specific hypothesis concerning the legal treatment of opinions relying upon foreign law. Next, I conduct my empirical analysis and discuss my results, which confirm my expectations. I conclude by exploring the implications of my findings.
The Supreme Court’s Reliance upon Foreign Law
Although the Supreme Court has been citing foreign law for 200 years, over time the references have become more common, with the rate of citation dramatically increasing in the past 10 years (Zaring Reference Zaring2006; Farber Reference Farber2007; Black, Owens, and Brookhart Reference Black2014; Stobb Reference Stobb2018). Identifying incentives driving this trend, scholars argue that justices employ foreign law selectively to support controversial rulings. Following the strategic model of judicial decision-making, judicial specialists posit that judges seek to pursue policy goals but are constrained in this behavior by various norms and actors, particularly by the reality that the Court must rely upon others to effectuate its decisions (Epstein and Knight Reference Epstein1998).
Justices know that key actors are more likely to implement well-supported decisions because they appear more legitimate (Canon and Johnson Reference Canon1999; Black, Owens, and Brookhart Reference Black2014). They alter their behavior in numerous ways to address these concerns. For instance, the Court will speak with a unified voice to gain adherence (Benesh and Reddick Reference Benesh2002), and modify its behavior to address legitimacy threats stemming from negative public opinion and a hostile Congress (Casillas, Enns, and Wolfarth Reference Casillas2011; Owens, Wedeking, and Wolfarth Reference Owens2013). Justices will also carefully craft the language to be as persuasive as possible, recognizing that their opinions will be scrutinized, particularly in hard cases (Hume Reference Hume2006; Corley and Wedeking Reference Corley2014). The Court will strategically alter opinion content, using more authoritative language (Corley and Wedeking Reference Corley2014) and adapting the clarity of its opinions based on expected reactions from their various audiences (Black et al. Reference Black2016). In addition, justices tactically select rhetorical sources to cite, including the Federalist papers, the Founders’ writings, and Blackstone’s Commentaries (Corley et al. Reference Corley2005; Hume Reference Hume2006).
Most importantly for the present study, evidence indicates that justices are more likely to rely upon foreign law when they invalidate laws, overturn precedent, and render ideologically motivated decisions (Black, Owens, and Brookhart Reference Black2014; Black et al. Reference Black2014). Judges unable to find needed justifications domestically look abroad to reinforce the logic of their arguments, portraying their opponents as dissenting from international consensus (Black, Owens, and Brookhart Reference Black2014; Black et al. Reference Black2014). Specifically, justices look to foreign law and practice to seek alliances, demonstrating that “other countries have made the same legal choices as those advocated in the case” (Black et al. Reference Black2014, 894). Moreover, they focus their attention on foreign law that is likely to be persuasive, citing most often sources from countries like the United States—democratic, wealthy, and English speaking—and US allies (Black, Owens, and Brookhart Reference Black2014; Black et al. Reference Black2014). The belief that reliance upon foreign law will improve the reception of an opinion appears to cross ideological lines; both liberal and conservative justices employ the practice (Black, Owens, and Brookhart Reference Black2014; Black et al. Reference Black2014). This evidence suggests that justices believe the rewards of reliance upon foreign law exceed the cost of the controversy it engenders. I investigate whether this trust is well-placed.
Lower Court Response to Supreme Court Reliance upon Foreign Law
While justices likely use this tactic to obtain the cooperation of both public and private actors (Baum Reference Baum2006), judges within the court hierarchy are a particularly important audience for Supreme Court opinions, as their decisions are official interpretations (Canon and Johnson Reference Canon1999). The manner in which future Supreme Courts construe prior opinions affect the decisions’ vitality, or legal authority (Hansford and Spriggs Reference Hansford2006). The decision’s vitality, combined with the congruence of the case with justices’ policy preferences, will impact whether a Supreme Court justice will interpret it positively in the future (Hansford and Spriggs Reference Hansford2006). Scholars find significant variation in the Supreme Court’s citation to its own precedent (115).
Lower courts can also refine the original holding by either enlarging or limiting it (Canon and Johnson Reference Canon1999). Although the norm of stare decisis mandates that courts follow Supreme Court legal doctrine in cases with similar factual circumstances, judges can circumvent binding precedent, choosing whether to treat it positively, negatively, or neutrally (Canon and Johnson Reference Canon1999; Hansford and Spriggs Reference Hansford2006). As defined by Shepard’s Citations, a valid and reliable source on the treatment of Supreme Court opinions, a positive interpretation of a case occurs only when the court cites the precedent as controlling (Hansford and Spriggs Reference Hansford2006). Lower courts negatively treat a precedent by questioning, limiting, criticizing, or distinguishing it (Hansford and Spriggs Reference Hansford2006). In doing so, they alter the meaning of the rules set by the Supreme Court (Black and Spriggs Reference Black2013). Because the importance of the justices’ opinions lies in the doctrines they produce (Clark and Lauderdale Reference Clark2010), these interpretations affect the extent to which the justices’ policy choices will determine outcomes in future cases. Although research indicates that lower courts tend to follow Supreme Court rulings (see Johnson Reference Johnson1979; Gruhl Reference Gruhl1980; Songer and Sheehan Reference Songer1990; Benesh and Reddick Reference Benesh2002), they do not always follow the high court’s direction and can ignore its precedents (Peltason Reference Peltason1971; Canon and Johnson Reference Canon1999).
As noted above, judges receive a benefit from relying upon foreign law in the form of an increase in the noteworthiness of the opinion (Stobb Reference Stobb2018). Reliance upon foreign law is associated with a significant rise in the total number of citations to a decision across all three levels of the judicial hierarchy (Stobb Reference Stobb2018). This finding indicates that reliance upon foreign law significantly affects the extent to which a decision influences outcomes in future cases and the development of the law in general. However, this prior work did not measure whether the practice is associated with an increase in the degree to which lower courts follow or defer to a Supreme Court opinion, a phenomenon examined in studies of compliance (Corley and Wedeking Reference Corley2014). The unit of analysis must therefore be the lower court decision citing a Supreme Court precedent (in other words, the circuit court opinion–Supreme Court opinion dyad), not the Supreme Court precedent as employed by Stobb (Reference Stobb2018). By studying the factors influencing lower court deference to Supreme Court precedent, we can better understand the extent to which the norm of stare decisis prevails. Adherence to this norm is one of the main ways that courts differ from other policy makers (Hansford Reference Hansford2017).
I expect that reliance upon foreign law will not increase deference to Supreme Court precedent for several reasons. First, justices employ the tactic without engaging with the reasoning of the foreign sources. Factors shown to be associated with an increase in positive citations tend to “enable the reader to understand and accept the judge’s decision” (Corley and Wedeking Reference Corley2014, 38). Thus, more readable opinions are more likely to be treated positively (Black et al. Reference Black2016). In contrast, reliance upon foreign law (apart from references to English common law) is almost always done without a discussion of the reasoning underlying the foreign practice (Calabresi and Zimdahl Reference Calabresi2005; Simon Reference Simon2013). Evidence suggests that foreign law has increasingly played the role of consensus identification, or supporting the application of a rule for which American consensus did not exist (Simon Reference Simon2013, 290). Recently, judges have looked to foreign practices to support overturning American precedents on the basis of changing societal values without engaging with the reasoning underlying foreign law (Calabresi and Zimdahl Reference Calabresi2005; Simon Reference Simon2013). As noted above, when justices rely upon foreign law, they explicitly or implicitly argue that countries like the United States (i.e., democratic, wealthy, and English speaking) and US allies have chosen the same legal approach as the justices advocate (Black et al. Reference Black2014, 894). Thus, justices argue that US courts should make the same choices as those made by foreign officials because those societies are like American society in essential respects, and should do so without exploring why other countries made these decisions or how the situation abroad may differ from that in the United States.
This is particularly true in constitutional cases. For example, in Thompson v. Oklahoma (487 U.S. 815 [1988]), the plurality cited to the views of “other nations that share our Anglo-American heritage, and by the leading members of the Western European community” to support its decision that imposing the death sentence for an act committed at age 15 “would offend civilized standards of decency.” Similarly, in Roper v. Simmons (543 U.S. 551 [2005]), the Court referred to the views of the world community. In both cases, the Court simply added a citation to a foreign law or practice. The references may be given in a footnote. Thus, in a number of cases, justices have referenced foreign law without describing foreign practices in detail or, more importantly, providing the factual circumstances surrounding the practice that would enable clear analogies to the American context.
Second, although the Court asserts that the citation provides evidence of a principle generally accepted by mankind, it recognizes that foreign law is not controlling in US decisions but is rather persuasive authority. Scholars provide evidence that increases in the authoritativeness of opinion language induces compliance because it enhances source credibility, making it appear that “the judge has no choice” (Corley and Wedeking Reference Corley2014, 39). Although the certainty of the language and the use of foreign law are two different phenomenon, the reason that less authoritative language is associated with less compliance also supports the expectation that the reliance upon foreign law will not gain positive legal treatment. Justices’ assertions that foreign law is not binding undermines effectiveness; they admit that they do have a choice. Again, the clearest examples must be taken from constitutional cases. In Atkins v. Virginia (536 U.S. 302 [2002]), the Court cited foreign law in a footnote to support its identification of an American consensus against imposing the death penalty on the mentally disabled. The Court noted only that the finding was consistent with the views of the world community, citing an amicus brief submitted for the European Union, and explicitly recognized that foreign sources were not dispositive. Although Justice Breyer has drawn on foreign law several times to contend that the death penalty violates the Eighth Amendment prohibition of cruel and unusual punishment, he has taken great pains to assert that he relies “primarily upon domestic, not foreign events” in his argument (Glossip v. Gross, 135 S. Ct. 2726 at 2775 [2015], Breyer, J., dissenting). Even vocal supporters of the use of foreign law, like Breyer, do not provide the needed rhetoric to persuade legal audiences.
Third, the degree of controversy over the practice is likely to undercut the persuasive power of such references. Members of the Court, particularly Justice Scalia, have been known to vehemently attack the majority’s reliance upon foreign law in their dissents. For example, in his dissent in Atkins, Scalia awarded the “Prize for the Court’s Most Feeble Effort to fabricate national consensus … to its appeal to members of the ‘so called world community’ … whose notions of justice (thankfully) not always those of our people” (536 U.S. at 347, Scalia, J., dissenting). In Roper, Justice Scalia argued that the justices in the majority selectively choose only foreign law favorable to their view. Scalia then discussed in depth the laws of other countries differing in important respects from American practices (575–77, Scalia, J., dissenting). Scalia alleged that judges manipulate citation to foreign sources to impose their morality on the American public. Such sharp criticism is likely to undercut the power of the majority’s reasoning.
In addition, lower court judges have characterized the tactic as a sign of ideologically motivated decision-making that undermines the courts’ legitimacy with the American public and within the judiciary (Wilkinson Reference Wilkinson2004). Appellate court judges have referred to the practice as a “form of judicial fig-leafing”; justices dig for citations to support their positions to “disguise the political decisions that are the core … of the Supreme Court’s output” (Posner Reference Posner2004). Chief Justice Dennis Jacobs (Reference Jacobs2010) of the Second Circuit—identified by Zaring (Reference Zaring2006) as the appellate court outpacing its brethren in citation to foreign law—argued that “foreign law is not much used by judges unless they can’t find what they want domestically and locally … one has the impression that judges are looking to foreign law in order to find support for their own inclinations.” Jacobs (Reference Jacobs2010) argued that the more judges seize upon and attempt to resolve salient and controversial issues, the more they “make it up as they go along,” and can often only find needed authority abroad. The practice has sparked controversy outside the legal academy, inspiring Congress to propose legislation and voters to pass state constitutional amendments limiting the use of foreign law (Buys Reference Buys2007; Parrish Reference Parrish2007; Bryant Reference Bryant2011).
Therefore, I argue that reliance upon foreign law is likely to be associated with an increased probability that lower courts negatively treat, rather than follow, Supreme Court precedent in constitutional cases. I examine reliance upon foreign law (as opposed to criticism of foreign law) because justices relying upon foreign sources argue the United States should act like countries similar to it, and adhere to notions of justice accepted by the world community without explaining why the approach suits the American context. In short, as Scalia states, they assume that American notions of justice are the same as those of other societies and fail to justify this conclusion. I expect that this assumption will offend some lower court judges just as it has troubled Supreme Court justices; both may conclude that the practice imposes foreign morality on the American public. Criticism is less likely to provoke such backlash, as it rejects rather than embraces foreign ideas. In addition, as demonstrated by the examples above, the most severe attacks are aimed at justices employing the tactic when interpreting constitutional provisions. Scalia wrote his visceral dissents, quoted above, in this context. Therefore, I focus my expectations on constitutional cases.
Hypothesis. If the Court relies upon foreign law in a constitutional case, lower courts will be more likely to treat a precedent negatively rather than positively.
I detail my methodology for testing this expectation in the following section.
Data and Methods
To investigate whether citation to foreign law is associated with a decrease in lower court deference in constitutional cases, I examined US courts of appeals treatments of a sample of 75 Supreme Court cases decided between 1992 and 2001.Footnote 3 I employed Shepard’s Citations to identify 1,064 US courts of appeals cases decided between 1993 and 2016. The unit of analysis is therefore the circuit court opinion–Supreme Court opinion dyad. At the same time, because my research design starts with the Supreme Court opinion for sampling purposes and then looks to the circuit court cases where it was subsequently cited, in some sense the unit of analysis is about the Supreme Court precedent.
Approximately half of the sample is composed of all Supreme Court decisions issued during this period that rely upon foreign law. I selected a random sample of cases not relying upon foreign law to complete the data set. Thus, my sampling approach is a stratified one. In the first stratum, I selected on the independent variable to make sure I had a sufficient number of cases in which the Supreme Court relied upon foreign law. As a result, the probability that such a case was included in the sample is different than that of the second stratum, in which the case did not rely upon foreign materials. I include sampling weights in the model to account for this design, allowing me to draw conclusions that more accurately reflect the actual population of interest.Footnote 4 Comparing the descriptive statistics of the full sample before and after weighting confirmed the beneficial effect of the weighting variable. Table 1 provides descriptive statistics from the data employed in the final analyses, and appendix A (apps. A–J available online) provides a table of the comparison. In short, the sampling weights significantly addressed the overinfluence of the group of cases in which the Supreme Court positively treated foreign law. For example, the mean for measures of case salience in the sample of decisions relying upon foreign law is higher than that in the sample of cases not relying upon foreign law. The use of sampling weights reduces the mean for case salience in the full data set, more accurately reflecting the statistic in the cases not citing foreign law.
Descriptive Statistics of Select Variables

In addition to employing sampling weights, I pruned the data to ensure that the sample of cases relying upon foreign law was comparable to the cases not relying on foreign law. I focused on key characteristics—age, issue area, and legal provision—to account for unobservable factors associated with each case.Footnote 5 First, I considered age because the Supreme Court’s likelihood of relying upon foreign law has risen over time. Ensuring cases are in the same age range accounts for unobservable factors explaining this increase. Second, I recognize that judges may be more likely to rely upon foreign law in certain issue areas, and that these issue areas may, by their very nature, be more likely to raise particularly controversial or salient questions. Therefore, I dropped cases from the non–foreign law case sample falling into issue areas not included in the foreign law case sample. For example, no cases in the sample of decisions relying upon foreign law fell into the “attorneys” issue area. Thus, I dropped cases in the non–foreign law sample coded as falling into the attorney issue area. A similar approach was taken with the legal provision discussed in the case. A majority of the cases relying upon foreign law interpret constitutional provisions or federal statutes. These types of cases are particularly likely to be notable or salient. I therefore removed cases citing other legal provisions, such as court rules, from the non–foreign law sample. Approximately half of the decisions in my full data set are constitutional cases, meaning that the legal provision considered by the Court included the Constitution or a constitutional amendment (Spaeth et al. Reference Spaeth2019). In the remaining half of the cases, the Court primarily examined federal statutes (Spaeth et al. Reference Spaeth2019).
I employ Shepard’s Citations to measure the dependent variable in my analysis. As noted above, this resource has been found to be both valid and reliable (Hansford and Spriggs Reference Hansford2006). Shepard’s provides a list of all the cases citing a Supreme Court precedent and analyzes how the citing case legally interprets the cited case. Importantly, citation alone is not equivalent to legal treatment (Corley and Wedeking Reference Corley2014). A citation means only that a case referenced the Supreme Court precedent. Therefore, I only count legal treatments. Shepard’s employs several codes to indicate that a case has legally interpreted an earlier precedent, effectively affirming or diminishing the authority of the precedent (Hansford and Spriggs Reference Hansford2006). If Shepard’s notes that a subsequent case has “Followed” a precedent, it has positively treated the case, expressly relying on it and/or recognizing it as “controlling” or “determinative” (Hansford and Spriggs Reference Hansford2006). I code a lower court case that has “Questioned,” “Limited,” “Criticized,” or “Distinguished” a Supreme Court case as negatively treating it (Corley and Wedeking Reference Corley2014). Neutral treatments include the labels “Explained” (clarifying, interpreting, or annotating the case) and “Harmonized” (recognizing differences but reconciling and “bringing into harmony apparent inconsistency”; Hansford and Springs Reference Hansford2006, 44 n. 4). The dependent variable, Legal Treatment, is coded −1 for negative treatments, 0 for neutral treatments, and 1 for positive treatments. I recognize that the use of Shepard’s Citations introduces some error into my measurement of circuit court treatment of a Supreme Court opinion. I am not able to specify the aspect of the Supreme Court opinion that is the “target” of the circuit court’s treatment. The circuit court is negatively treating a Supreme Court opinion, but not necessarily the specific argument in which the Supreme Court relies upon foreign law. While I acknowledge this limitation in my data, I argue that it does not undermine my ability to draw conclusions concerning a lower court’s general response to the high court’s reliance upon foreign law because it is an attribute of the opinion in the same general sense that linguistic certainty and readability are opinion attributes (Corley and Wedeking Reference Corley2014; Black et al. Reference Black2016). I would only need to be concerned about this measurement error if a confounding variable caused both Supreme Court references to foreign law (or lack of reference to foreign law) and simultaneously impacted lower courts’ treatment of Supreme Court precedent. Because I control for many possible confounding variables of this kind, this measurement error is of minimal concern. In order to distinguish whether the lower court is more likely to treat a precedent negatively as I expect, rather than simply less likely to treat a precedent positively (which could include neutral treatments), I employ a multinomial probit model, with robust standard errors, that treats the categories as nonordered.Footnote 6
The central independent variable of interest is a dichotomous measure, Reliance upon Foreign Law, coded 1 if the Supreme Court opinion positively cites foreign law and 0 otherwise (Black, Owens, and Brookhart Reference Black2014). The authors followed the approach of Shepard’s coding system discussed above.Footnote 7 To be clear, reliance upon foreign law does not equate with a citation to the source as controlling authority. The authors coded every formally decided full opinion case, unsigned (i.e., per curiam) orally argued case, and judgment of the Court handed down during their time frame. They searched for references to all countries (using current and former names) and major international tribunals. Citations include references to foreign court decisions; foreign court procedures or practices; foreign law enforcement procedures; foreign constitutional provisions; foreign legislative acts; foreign informal government acts (e.g., debates); international reports or documents (e.g., a United Nations study) that mention the country searched for; or a foreign country’s cultural, economic, political, or historical practices (Black et al. Reference Black2014). The authors also generously provided data distinguishing references to solely English common law from those made to the practices of other foreign countries. This allowed me to control for any difference between the treatment of cases with citations to English common law (which are most often accepted as legitimate) from that of more controversial references to foreign law. I ran tests replacing the Reliance upon Foreign Law variable in my models with an indicator measuring references to positive foreign law excluding those to English common law. My central findings were the same.
To focus my analysis on constitutional cases, I created the interaction variable Reliance upon Foreign Law*Constitutional Case. I coded the constitutive variable Constitutional Case as 1 if the Supreme Court Database listed the legal provision considered by the Court as either the Constitution or a constitutional amendment (Spaeth et al. Reference Spaeth2019). I employ predicted probabilities to explore the substantive meaning of this central variable of interest. In addition, I employ several control variables to account for factors shown to consistently influence lower court treatment of Supreme Court opinions. Table 2 provides the names of these variables and how they are measured. Additional detail is provided in the appendix.Footnote 8
Control Variables

Note.—As explained further in app. B, I chose control variables shown to consistently influence lower court treatment of Supreme Court opinions by scholars, including Wasby (Reference Wasby1970), Collins (Reference Collins2008), Luse et al. (Reference Luse2009), Westerland et al. (Reference Westerland2010), Epstein, Landes, and Posner (Reference Epstein2012), Corley, Steigerwalt, and Ward (Reference Corley2013), and Hitt (Reference Hitt2016).
I devote space at this point to discuss control variables that address major threats to inference. First, I recognize that to clearly distinguish the effect of reliance upon foreign law from that of the authority of the language, I must include a measure of the certainty of the language used in the opinion. This is particularly important because, as noted above, justices are careful to qualify their use of foreign law by recognizing that it is not controlling. Therefore, following Corley and Wedeking (Reference Corley2014), I used the computer content analysis program Linguistic Inquiry and Word Count (LIWC) to generate the variable Certainty, measuring the degree of certainty or authoritativeness expressed in the majority opinion. In addition, I employ a Readability variable provided by Black et al. (Reference Black2016) to control for opinion clarity. In this manner, I distinguish the effect of the sources justices employ to support their arguments from the impact of other features of opinion content known to be important.
Most importantly, I include three variables to account for the salience or controversial nature of the case. As prior research indicates that justices are particularly likely to rely upon foreign law in such cases, it is essential that I control for this factor. First, I include the New York Times Salience variable employed in prior studies of lower court treatment of Supreme Court precedent (Corley and Wedeking Reference Corley2014). The New York Times Salience measure is a dichotomous variable, coded 1 if the New York Times carried a front-page story about the case and 0 otherwise (Epstein and Segal Reference Epstein2000; Epstein et al. Reference Epstein2007). According to Epstein and Segal (Reference Epstein2000, 67), the New York Times indicator is “an alternative approach to measure issue salience for elite actors: the coverage the media affords to a given issue.” In addition, I ran tests with a second measure of salience from Congressional Quarterly’s Guide to the Supreme Court, which lists decisions that are considered landmark cases (Epstein and Segal Reference Epstein2000, citing Brenner and Spaeth Reference Brenner1995). While the New York Times Salience variable is an indicator of contemporaneous salience, or whether the justices thought the issue was salient at the time they resolved it, the CQ Salience variable measures retrospective salience, or whether analysts view a particular issue as salient now (Epstein and Segal Reference Epstein2000). Finally, I include a measure of Legal Importance, coded 1 if the precedent struck down a law as unconstitutional or overturned existing precedent and 0 otherwise (Spaeth et al. Reference Spaeth2019). Legal Importance is a key control in this analysis because prior research indicates that justices are more likely to positively reference foreign law when exercising judicial review and overturning precedent, and these factors may explain some controversy related to the practice.
I also conduct several robustness tests to make a more convincing case that the effects I find are grounded in the lower court’s reaction to reliance upon foreign law as opposed to the nature of the issue. First, I remove all cases from the data set identified as salient or controversial—any case coded 1 for the New York Times Salience, CQ Salience, or Legal Importance measures—to isolate the significance of reliance upon foreign law from that of salience. Although this step cut the number of constitutional cases in my database in half, making it more difficult to precisely estimate the substantive meaning of the results, I take it because it is a stringent test of my hypothesis.
In addition, I examined the politics of the situation. Conservative justices such as Scalia, Thomas, and Roberts are vocal critics of reliance upon foreign law (Stobb Reference Stobb2018). As noted above, conservative US courts of appeals judges such as Wilkinson, Posner, and Jacobs echo these criticisms.Footnote 9 I examine whether conservative lower court panels and judges are more likely than their liberal counterparts to negatively treat Supreme Court precedents relying upon foreign law. I conduct my analyses on several subsets of the data. First, I coded the outcomes of the 1,064 lower court cases on my data set, split the data into subsets of lower court cases with conservative outcomes and those with liberal outcomes, and compare the results for my main model. Second, I isolate the subset of cases citing foreign law and test the effect of the ideology of the lower court judge, and its interaction with the constitutional case variable, on the probability of a negative treatment of cases relying upon foreign law. I expect that conservative lower court panels or judges will be more likely than liberal panels or judges to negatively treat a case relying upon foreign law.
Results
Although justices may gain attention by relying upon foreign law in their opinions, my results indicate that they are not likely to obtain lower court deference by using this tactic. I find that reliance upon foreign law in constitutional cases is associated with a statistically significant increase in the probability that circuit courts will cite a Supreme Court precedent negatively as opposed to positively. Reliance upon Foreign Law is positive and significant in the model including the three indicators for salience and the controversial nature of the case, and in alternative models including each measure separately. Because I have estimated a nonlinear model with an interaction term, a table of my results provides little information concerning the statistical and substantive significance of the data. I therefore include this table in appendix C and focus the discussion of my findings on the predicted probabilities.Footnote 10 I first note that the results indicate that, although reliance upon foreign law in constitutional cases has a significant effect on the likelihood that a circuit court of appeals will treat a Supreme Court precedent negatively, it does not have such an impact in nonconstitutional cases. Reliance upon Foreign Law is positive and significant in the baseline model, and Reliance upon Foreign Law*Constitutional Case is positive and significant in the interaction model. However, the constituent term, Reliance upon Foreign Law, is not significant in the interaction model, indicating that when Constitutional Case is zero, Reliance on Foreign Law does not have a significant impact. This confirms my hypothesis. Table 3 illustrates the substantive meaning of this finding by listing the probabilities of a negative, neutral, or positive treatment when the Court relies upon foreign law and does not do so, in constitutional and nonconstitutional cases.
Lower Court Treatment of Supreme Court Precedent Relying upon Foreign Law

The likelihood of a negative treatment, as compared to positive treatment, increases by 16 percentage points (from 6% to 22%) when the Court relies upon foreign law in a constitutional case. The probability of a positive treatment under the same circumstances, on the other hand, drops 18 points (from 86% to 68%).Footnote 11 The change in predicted probabilities for a neutral treatment is much smaller, only two percentage points. In contrast, when the legal provision examined is not the Constitution or a constitutional amendment, the impact of Reliance upon Foreign Law is much smaller. The probability of a negative treatment increases by 2 percentage points (from 21% to 23%) when the Court relies upon foreign law in these cases. The evidence points to a significant effect in constitutional cases, as I expected.
In general, the results for the control variables are as expected. Interestingly, I do not find evidence that the readability and certainty of the language, the age of the precedent, the ideological consistency of the appeals court with the Supreme Court precedent, or the change in the Supreme Court ideology significantly impact the treatment of the case. As prior studies have found these factors to be significant, these results are worthy of further investigation. It may be that my sample of Supreme Court precedent is smaller than that used in prior studies, and a larger number of cases is needed to detect these effects.
Next, I summarize the findings for the robustness tests. Detailed results are provided in the appendix. Even when I exclude all salient or controversial cases from the analysis, Reliance upon Foreign Law is positive and significant in the baseline model. The interaction between Reliance upon Foreign Law and Constitutional Case is also associated with a statistically significant increase in the probability that the lower court will treat the precedent negatively.Footnote 12 As with the tests on the full data set, the constituent term, Reliance upon Foreign Law, is not significant. The results concerning the reaction of conservative lower court panels and judges are mixed. In the tests on the subset of the data including only lower court cases with conservative outcomes, the interaction term Reliance upon Foreign Law*Constitutional Case is associated with a significant increase in the likelihood that the lower court will treat a precedent negatively. In contrast, the interaction is not significant when I run the models on the subset of the data including only lower court cases with liberal outcomes. The predicted probabilities based on the findings in cases with conservative outcomes show an even greater effect; an increase in the probability of a negative treatment of 19 percentage points. Tests run on the subset of the data including only foreign law cases, and examining the impact of judicial ideology on lower court response did not yield support for my hypothesis. Measures of lower court judicial ideology and its interaction with constitutional case failed to reach conventional levels of statistical significance.Footnote 13 These results do not necessarily lead me to reject my hypothesis, however. I argue that the findings from the subsets of nonsalient decisions and lower court cases with conservative outcomes provide additional support for my contention that Supreme Court reliance upon foreign law in constitutional cases, rather than simply the nature of the issue, is driving lower court negative treatment.
Discussion and Conclusion
Reliance upon foreign law is a controversial practice, particularly when used in constitutional cases. Yet, some on the Court persist in employing this tactic. My research indicates that their strategic goals are only partly realized. Opinions receive more citations but are not likely to gain lower court deference to their decisions. In fact, this study suggests that they trigger negative reactions from lower courts, and that this impact is likely concentrated in constitutional cases. This is a particularly important finding because the Supreme Court, as the final arbiter in constitutional cases, gains a good deal of its power from the doctrine it issues in this arena. Moreover, the stakes are high in constitutional cases, as interpretations of the supreme law of the land cannot be as easily altered as those of statutory law. My results suggests that lower court judges may perceive reliance upon foreign law in constitutional cases as thinly veiled attempts to impose the justices’ ideological preferences on the American public. If the trend of increased constitutional cross-fertilization continues, lower court deference to Court rulings may decline over time, and the authority of Supreme Court precedent could diminish.
More broadly, this study demonstrates that the type of legal sources employed by the Supreme Court have a substantial effect on how the opinion is received by a crucial audience, the courts of appeals. This is true even when controlling for important aspects of opinion content, such as the readability and certainty of the text. My findings further our understanding concerning how the Supreme Court can craft the most persuasive reasoning to achieve its coveted goal of altering the legal doctrine that determines outcomes in countless future cases. Justices may reach out for support in foreign law, only to have their hand slapped.



