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Policy Uptake as Political Behavior: Evidence from the Affordable Care Act

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  22 August 2017

AMY E. LERMAN*
Affiliation:
University of California, Berkeley
MEREDITH L. SADIN*
Affiliation:
University of California, Berkeley
SAMUEL TRACHTMAN*
Affiliation:
University of California, Berkeley
*
Amy E. Lerman, University of California, Berkeley, 2607 Hearst Ave, Berkeley, CA 94720 (alerman@berkeley.edu).
Meredith L. Sadin, University of California, Berkeley, 2607 Hearst Ave, Berkeley, CA 94720 (msadin@berkeley.edu).
Samuel Trachtman, University of California, Berkeley, 210 Barrows Hall, Berkeley, CA 94720 (sam.trachtman@berkeley.edu).
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Abstract

Partisanship is a primary predictor of attitudes toward public policy. However, we do not yet know whether party similarly plays a role in shaping public policy behavior, such as whether to apply for government benefits or take advantage of public services. While existing research has identified numerous factors that increase policy uptake, the role of politics has been almost entirely overlooked. In this paper, we examine the case of the Affordable Care Act to assess whether policy uptake is not only about information and incentives; but also about politics. Using longitudinal data, we find that Republicans have been less likely than Democrats to enroll in an insurance plan through state or federal exchanges, all else equal. Employing a large-scale field experiment, we then show that de-emphasizing the role of government (and highlighting the market's role) can close this partisan gap.

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Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 2017 
Figure 0

FIGURE 1.Percent Uninsured by Party Identification (2010–2016)

Source: Kaiser Family Foundation Health Tracking Surveys, 2010–2016. (N = 35,965 Democrats; 31,162 Republicans, weighted for national representation). Figure represents average number of respondents, by party identification, that report being uninsured. Democrats’ uninsured rates dropped quickly at the opening of the ACA marketplaces, while Republican uninsured rates remain steadier.
Figure 1

FIGURE 2.Impact of Partisanship on ACA Insurance Enrollment

Point estimates are marginal effects of Republican partisanship on uptake behavior for individuals without group coverage derived from a multinomial logistic regression (N = 3,728), controlling for age, race and ethnicity, gender, state of residence, employment, education, income, as well as the date of the poll. Education is coded as high school or less (1), some college (2), or college + (3); income is coded as an eight-level categorical variable ranging from less than $20k to $100k+. Data are compiled Kaiser Family Foundation Health Tracking Surveys starting in 2014.
Figure 2

FIGURE 3.2012 Democratic County Vote Share and Marketplace Enrollment

Points represent PUMAs and counties (N = 852) geographically composed as discussed in Footnote 6. The upward-trending locally weighted smoother demonstrates the descriptive relationship between percentage vote for Obama in 2012 and share of eligible population, as estimated by KFF, enrolled in marketplace plans in 2015.10
Figure 3

FIGURE 4.Percent Enrolled in Marketplace Insurance by Party and Treatment

Points represent percent of respondents enrolled in marketplace insurance by treatment group. Higher values indicate higher enrollment. Sample split by respondent party identification and includes respondents recruited via phone and online. We observe that Republicans are significantly more likely to enroll when assigned to HealthSherpa.com (p < 0.01). Error bars represent 95% confidence intervals.
Figure 4

FIGURE 5.Percent Enrolled in Marketplace Insurance by Ideology and Treatment

Points represent percent of respondents enrolled in marketplace insurance by treatment group. Higher values indicate higher enrollment. Sample split by ideology and include respondents recruited via phone. We observe that conservatives are significantly more likely to enroll when assigned to HealthSherpa.com (p = 0.01). Error bars represent the 95% confidence interval.
Figure 5

TABLE 1.Treatment Effect on Enrollment in Marketplace Insurance by Party and Ideology

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