Deforestation Trends in the Congo Basin (‘Deforestation Trends’ hereafter) reports on recent changes in the tropical forests of Central Africa, and then draws upon these changes to project what Congo basin forests might look like in 2030. The Congo rainforest represents the world's second largest block of tropical rainforest, so its continued existence as a biodiverse carbon sink has global significance. In this context Deforestation Trends provides us with a welcome update on the status and likely future of the Congo forest.

The book begins with a broad overview and summary of what we know about deforestation in Central Africa. The authors report rates of deforestation and discuss relevant trends in the agricultural and forest economies of the Congo Basin countries. The authors also incorporate the ongoing urbanisation of the population into their discussion of the growing human pressure on Congo rain forests. This discussion includes an analysis of the often overlooked charcoal industry that provides urban residents with fuel for cooking. The second half of the book presents a model, called CongoBIOM, of deforestation's dynamics in the Congo basin. The authors use this model, which makes assumptions about trends in agricultural commodity prices and government road building activities, to simulate changes in land cover in the Congo Basin until 2030. The simulation makes it clear that high commodity prices on world markets should induce urban residents to substitute relatively inexpensive, locally grown agricultural products for imported foodstuffs, thereby increasing the pressure to expand agriculture around Central African cities at the expense of the forests. This dynamic promises to raise the regional deforestation rate, from the lowest in the tropical world at 0·1–0·2% per year during the 1990–2005 period to 0·4–1·3% per year during the 2020–2030 period. The final chapter in the book discusses policy options that, harking back to the book's subtitle, would make it possible to raise incomes in the region without expanding agriculture into the remaining forest. This analysis includes an assessment of the ability of REDD+ (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation) and other PES (payments for environmental services) programmes to induce higher levels of resource conservation while economic growth accelerates in the region.

Deforestation Trends does a commendable job of incorporating ongoing trends in urbanisation and in agricultural commodity prices into its model of deforestation dynamics. The CongoBIOM model does, however, fall short in the political domain. Events such as the current strife in the Central African Republic and the long-running hostilities in the Eastern Congo have strong documented effects on land cover, so it would seem necessary to incorporate them into the model building. The model includes scenarios for a biofuels-related surge in commodity prices. It should also include a political disorder scenario. This shortcoming aside, Deforestation Trends provides an informative update and forecast for one of the world's most important natural resources.