In this book, David Rapkin and William Thompson examine the form that a potential U.S.–China power transition later in the twenty-first century might take. There is by now a large volume of books analyzing this exact question, with no shortage of diverging viewpoints. What sets Transition Scenarios apart is that it is the first to systematically build a framework for scenario construction, identifying the driving forces that can constrain or induce potential conflict between the United States and China. Moreover, it does so in a theoretically open yet focused manner, incorporating insights from theoretical strands in international relations that go beyond the narrower foci of power-transition models and offensive realism.
The authors begin by laying out the case for why a power transition is likely to occur when a new rising power (i.e., China) challenges a global incumbent (i.e., the United States). The authors use the historical record to show how long-term changes in power distribution at the apex of the global system have been characterized by considerable violence. As they state, “No newly emerged great power managed to evade participation in extensive warfare” (p. 4). Nonetheless, the first chapter ends with a key clarification: While there are various historical and theoretical insights on the potential shape of power transitions, there is profound uncertainty how a China–U.S. transition might actually unfold. The authors therefore outline the three objectives of their endeavor: to create an analytical vehicle that can examine multiple and alternative scenarios; to apply international relations theory to this task; and, in this manner, to build future-oriented scenarios that can improve upon present theory and aid in interpreting transition processes.
The second chapter introduces the reader to scenario construction—plausible narratives about the future. Key terms are presented, though unfortunately this ends up being a bit confusing. Primary structural drivers come first, but then reference is made to both secondary drivers and predetermined elements. It is never quite clear what distinguishes these two terms, and, indeed, in the concluding chapter, both are employed in similar fashion. It would have been better to stick to primary and secondary drivers only, while simplifying the terminology as much as possible. Fortunately, the book makes extensive use of tables and figures that crystallize what is sometimes an overwhelming amount of causal mechanisms: primary drivers, secondary drivers, predetermined elements, critical uncertainties, early indicators, challenges, and wild cards. Figure 2.1 is central in that it situates the alternative scenarios in a matrix.
I found Chapter 3 to be unessential. It outlines the major narratives already developed on the looming U.S.–China power transition. The authors note that most are only about war and not theoretically grounded. However, the literature reviewed is fictional, and the major points derived from this task reappear in theoretically more solid form later. The following chapters (4–6) review relevant theory, though constructivist, critical, and ideas-based approaches are for the most part eschewed.
Power transition theories following A. F. K Organski and approaches in realism, especially the offensive realism framework proposed by John Mearsheimer, are critiqued in a concise and fair manner. The authors then emphasize insights from “Leadership Long-Cycle” theory to which, in particular, Thompson has been a key contributor. Rather than the relative size of an economy (GDP), its dynamic properties—innovative capacity—are held to influence outcomes of power transitions. In a refreshing manner, this brings aspects of political economy into the picture. Radical innovation cum Schumpeterian processes shape qualitative aspects of economic growth that can catapult rising powers to capture new leading sectors, control long-distance commercial opportunities, and challenge the global lead economy. Other aspects, including geography and the strategic orientation of challenger and incumbent, as well as threat/frustration perceptions, are incorporated into the analytical framework at this point.
Further distillation occurs in Chapter 5, which analyzes the conflict drivers shaping power transitions. However, this chapter suffers from somewhat dated materials on the People’s Liberation Army and a lopsided structure. Conversely, Chapter 6 is one of the best conceived and argued in the book, containing a concise treatment of Kantian arguments in favor of constraints on conflict, as well as the role of nuclear deterrence. Although I would have preferred to see a bit more analysis of the “capitalist peace” (p. 113) as opposed to the “democratic peace” (pp. 111–14) theory, the tripod of Kantian variables is critically and fairly reviewed, especially the dual-edged sword of economic interdependence, containing constraints on conflict but also potential drivers, such as competition over the same industries on the technological frontier.
Chapters 7 through 10 present the five scenarios developed by the authors. Of special interest are the scenarios that tend to be less prominent in the academic and popular literatures. The “More of the Same,” “Pax Sinica,” and “Liberal Peace/Kant Muddles Through” scenarios are fascinating examples of changes in international power relations that do not lead to massive conflict, do not fit the offensive realist prescription, and cover gray areas of messy, hybridized, or contradictory-multipronged outcomes. I enjoyed reading through the scenarios, though some narratives become repetitive as the chapters progress. Chapter 8 on “Transition War,” in particular, gave me the feeling that some of the narrative is ominously coming true, such as China’s more assertive security policy, heightened conflict over the South China Sea, and closer ties between China and Russia that could bipolarize global security competition.
Several of the narratives also benefit from incorporating globally systemic drivers, such as multipolarization, the dispersion of technological innovation, nuclear deterrence, and global environmental challenges. In this context, the book could have benefited from a more systematic treatment of such global-systemic drivers. Only those in the more traditional realist remit concerning power distribution are structurally analyzed. The scenarios, however, elucidate that evolutionary dynamics of the global capitalist system (e.g., development of global value chains; new possibilities for technological leapfrogging; and changes in the global financial architecture and reserve currency) are likely to impinge on a possible China–U.S. power transition. Similarly, emergent global systemic threats (climate change; terrorism; new/proliferating weapons of mass destruction; and highly disruptive technologies, such as Artificial Intelligence) could have been subjected to a structurally more precise and overarching treatment.
The final chapter wraps up with several excellent tables that synthesize the causal mechanisms underlying each scenario and point to theoretical implications. I find the alternative scenarios to be, indeed, quite plausible and convincing. They give us valuable clues about processes that shape power transitions and contribute to social-scientific understanding—“an infrastructure for telling stories in a theoretical vein” (p. 222). Possible early indicators for actually tracing which scenarios are coming true are elaborated on pages 222 to 223, but here the authors could have fruitfully expanded the text to provide a more precise and structurally informed treatment of the ways in which early indicators can give us tools to interpret real-world developments and evaluate the validity of theoretical frameworks in international relations. Which drivers are weak and which strong? How and why do they alter outcomes? Here, the book stops short of further refining what is an extremely fruitful and promising research agenda.
Transition Scenarios is an excellent contribution to the literature on power transitions, international relations theory, and the potential dynamics of a Chinese challenge for global leadership. I highly recommend it due to its well-conceived structure, as well as a focused, yet theoretically open and humble approach. It is a salient work of integrating history and international relations theory to create a structural framework for telling stories about the future. As such, it belongs in university libraries and on every international relations aficionado’s desk.
