The objective of the book is to scrutinise the ‘ramifications of changes in US–Cuba relations’ (p. 3) in depth and in every possible aspect since 17 December 2014 (17D), when Barack Obama and Raúl Castro announced the re-establishment of diplomatic relations between Cuba and the United States. In order to do so, the volume assembles 14 essays organised around three main issues.
Firstly, there is discussion of how 17D became possible. Hershberg and Serbin, in separate chapters, analyse this change in policy within the bigger picture of Latin American dynamics. They show, on the one hand, that most Latin American countries were keen on bringing Cuba back into the OAS and the Summits of the Americas. On the other hand, the United States showed interest in ‘re-establishing US presence in Latin America and the Caribbean and limiting China's growing regional influence’ (p. 186). Both scholars thus explain why regional conditions were favourable for the normalisation of relations between Cuba and the United States, while at the same time opening the way for a ‘“normalizing” of hemispheric relations’ (p. 186). Although LeoGrande's essay does not directly address how 17D became possible, his analysis of the ‘plummeting legitimacy of the political elite’ contributes to an understanding of 17D dynamics. To make his point, he quotes an international poll conducted in 2015 on the island, showing 79 and 53 per cent dissatisfaction levels with the economic and political systems, respectively. Such results demonstrate that the Cuban political elite could no longer count on widespread popular support, which might explain why Raúl Castro needed to move fast to prevent growing social unrest.
Secondly, Brenner, Lopez-Levy, Hoffmann and Pérez-Stable underline the political and diplomatic challenges faced by United States–Cuba relations, since there is no ‘normality’ to go back to (Brenner, Pérez-Stable). The ‘legacy of tension and hostility’ (resulting for instance from the occupation of the Guantánamo base or the Cuban Medical Professional Parole Programme, widely regarded as encouraging a ‘brain drain’, p. 16) will need to be resolved to diminish fear and to build trust, thus establishing solid ground on which to further negotiate (Brenner). Comparing United States–Cuba normalisation politics with Willy Brandt's Ostpolitik, Hoffmann suggests Brandt's politics were successful because they were ‘depolarization politics’, based on the ‘recognition of the socialist governments (…) as legitimate interlocutors’ (p. 43). For Lopez-Levy, given the structural asymmetries of power between Cuba and the United States, one solution could be to implement politics of recognition on both sides in order to create ‘a stable asymmetrical relationship’ (Lopez-Levy, p. 35). Pérez-Stable proposes a different take on the same issue as she claims that normalisation will take place when Cuba becomes a ‘normal country’, i.e. when Cuba stops being the special focus of US enmity and when it stops claiming special treatment, especially in respect of its human rights record. Two essays address more grassroots dynamics: Serra considers the capacity of Cuban arts to function as a locus for the expression of differing perspectives on Cuba's future, while Ackerman raises the question of reconciliation among Cubans, underlining the rising international profile of moderate voices.
The chapters which focus on economic policy (Henken and Vignoli, Morris, Pérez Villanueva, Torres) are especially insightful for readers interested in transition economics. They offer a thorough discussion of the problematic legacy of the Cuban centrally planned economy (low diversification, high dependency on imports, external debt, lack of opportunities in the private sector) and a well-thought-out analysis of the challenges that lie ahead (reform of the dual currency system, access to foreign investment and credit, rising inequalities). On the whole, these economists reach two main conclusions: the failings of the Cuban economy are not solely attributable to external actors, and so the Cuban economy needs to be reformed from the inside (Torres, Henken and Vignoli); and the Cuban state, rather than the market, should drive the economic transition (Morris, Torres). Foreign investment (Pérez Villanueva, Torres) and private entrepreneurs (Henken and Vignoli) are crucial for the generation of economic growth and for ‘transforming citizens from passive recipients of subsidized goods into active participants in the nation's economy’ (p. 173).
Although a book like this could quickly have become out-dated, this one is has not done so for three reasons. Firstly, it relies on scholarship written by renowned experts with a long-term commitment to research on Cuban economics, politics and society. They draw on their in-depth knowledge of Cuba to think beyond the recent conjuncture. Secondly, it consists of a collection of short essays, which give insights into specific topics and suggest ways to reflect on future challenges. Thirdly, the authors always bear in mind the possibility that normalisation can be reversed, just as the election of Ronald Reagan ‘aborted a previous US–Cuba process of détente’ (Lopez-Lévy, p. 28). Eric Hershberg's warning that ‘the costs of a reversal of American policy should not be underestimated’, because it would recreate ‘a major point of contention with virtually every government in the region’, is especially ominous and shows that this group of scholars were not blind to the possibility of a Republican victory in November 2016. The book thus constitutes a well-crafted policy-oriented guide towards the continued promotion of normalisation between the countries, as well as a measured analysis of the pitfalls, challenges and potential gains of such a process – though maybe only for the next American president.
