Introduction
In the United States (US) alone, antimicrobial resistance (AMR) affects more than two million people annually, causes an estimated 23,000 deaths, and generates an estimated economic burden exceeding $55 billion.1 Despite the threat of AMR, the antimicrobial market has proven unattractive to investment, as seen by a weak pipeline of antimicrobial agents and a trend of pharmaceutical companies either working on only a small microbial portfolio or exiting the market altogether.Reference Boucher, Talbot, Benjamin, Bradley, Guidos, Jones, Murray, Bonomo and Gilbert2 The poor market dynamic for antimicrobials reflects consistently low returns on investment (ROI), due to antimicrobial stewardship programs and low-cost generics limiting expected uptake and volume use, as well as low levels of reimbursement relative to their public health value.Reference Sertkaya, Eyraud, Birkenbach, Franz, Ackerley, Overton and Outterson3
In particular, our traditional volume-based, fee-for-service (FFS) system for drug payment ties company revenue directly to volume and intensity of drug use, and the payment from the patient (or their insurance company) generally reflects the benefit to that patient, not the value of the product as a public good. That is, the vast majority of people who derive benefit from having effective antimicrobials that target multi-drug resistant infections are those who will never have to use them, if the drug is accessible when needed and if use is restricted only to appropriate cases to deter the development of resistance. Having these agents available and used appropriately in relatively small populations not only helps prevent the spread of such infections to broader populations, but also permits other valuable treatments, such as surgeries and invasive procedures in higher-risk patients, because physicians know these agents are available if needed. While the clinical community faces increased pressure to ensure judicious use of antimicrobial agents to dampen AMR development, the impact of these efforts will further negatively impact the antimicrobial pipeline without fundamental reforms to how we pay for high priority agents.4
To combat the threat of AMR through an improved economic environment for novel drug development, several international groups, including Chatham House, The Review on Antimicrobial Resistance, DRIVE-AB, and the German Global Union for Antibiotics Research and Development (GUARD) Initiative have developed recommendations for market entry rewards (MERs) that would provide a “pull” incentive for drug development companies.5 An MER guarantees future revenue by providing a financially valuable prize given to a manufacturer at the time that their qualifying drug enters the market. Such a prize could be paid as a lump sum or over the course of several years, and it aims to provide the necessary revenue to deliver favorable ROI for investment in antimicrobial development. Further, MERs support appropriate stewardship and sustainable use of the antimicrobial by either completely removing the dependence of the manufacturer on sales volume for revenue (“full delinkage”) or by limiting the ability for the company to generate sales and leverage current business models in combination with a MER (“partial delinkage”).Reference Outterson, Gopinathan, Clift, So, Morel and Røttingen6
Market Entry Reward Proposals in the U.S.
Complementing these international efforts, the U.S. Presidential Advisory Council on Combatting Antibiotic-Resistant Bacteria (PACCARB) recently proposed recommendations that supported the implementation of a MER for manufacturers who successfully develop a drug that targets antimicrobial resistant infections as part of a comprehensive package of push and pull incentives.7 PACCARB suggests that the amount of the reward be tied to the public health value of the drug, and the total value may need to be between $1-2 billion. The receipt of the reward would require the manufacturer to restrict sales and marketing of the drug. While this recommendation supported the retention of intellectual property by the manufacturer, it suggested that no further revenue should be earned through sales if the company accepted the MER. However, replacing private with public funding requires a higher level of public funding to achieve a desired ROI.
Some members of Congress, also reflecting a desire for changing how antimicrobials are reimbursed, introduced draft legislation that contains a section detailing a prize fund for antibiotic development, similar to the MER proposed by other organizations.8 The prize fund would initially set aside $2 billion, which could be split between up to three drugs that meet the criteria established by the National Institutes of Health. Conditions attached to the receipt of this prize include relinquishing intellectual property rights on the drug and requiring the company to set a reasonable price for the drug. While recognizing the critical public health challenge and need to move to policies that delink biopharmaceutical revenue from volume sales, the proposal does not identify a source of appropriations and provides only limited details on how the government would enforce the conditions for the reward.
More recently, the Infectious Disease Society of America (IDSA), through its Working Group on US Market Entry Rewards, has engaged with a range of stakeholders to draft principles for a US-based MER. These principles include providing between $500 million to $1 billion to any company that develops a new molecular entity that is approved to treat at least one serious or life threatening infection, and that is the first or second entry in its class. This award would be paid out over five years and would be conditioned on several requirements aimed to improve stewardship, reduce inappropriate use, and maintain continued availability. While there would be a strong emphasis on stewardship promotion, such as requiring a range of stewardship and educational activities as well as removing volume-based incentives from the company's field sales representatives, manufacturers would continue to generate revenue from volume-based sales during the award period and beyond the first five years on the market.
These MER approaches would go a long way to provide much needed economic “pull” incentive for investment by significantly improving the ROI for qualifying high priority drugs in a way that at least partially delinks revenue from volume sales. They also ensure appropriate manufacturer support for stew-ardship and drug availability by imposing conditions on the receipt of the MER payments. However, all of these approaches require substantial public funding at a time when fiscal resources are particularly tight. Moreover, although some lower the upfront size of the award by enabling the company to still retain volume-sales of the antimicrobial during and after the MER period, such revenue would still be tied to volume use of the antimicrobial. Companies do need revenue beyond the MER period for maintaining a reliable supply of the drug, fulfilling regulatory requirements such as safety surveillance and pharmacovigilance, and responding to any post-market regulatory requests that should arise. To further support stewardship and appropriate use, payment reforms that remove volume as a component of revenue are needed.
Priority Antimicrobial Value and Entry Award
To address the limitations of existing MER proposals, particularly in the US context, in August 2017, the Duke-Robert J. Margolis, MD Center for Health Policy proposed the Priority Antimicrobial Value and Entry (PAVE) Award, a publicly leveraged, value-based payment model.Reference Daniel, McClellan, Schneider, Qian, Lavezzari and de Graffenreid9 The PAVE Awardcombines a limited MER with a transition to value-based drug payments. The PAVE Award approach promotes innovative development through a reward designed to augment, not replace, private revenue sources for antimicrobials, while relying on antimicrobial payment reforms rather than a new government regulatory approach to promote sustainable use of the drug. The limited MER provides funds for the first five years on the market, with payments decreasing each year. However, unlike other proposals, market-based revenues beyond the MER would shift away from volume sales. In this model, MER payments would be increasingly contingent on manufacturers negotiating value-based contracts with payers that tie payments to value, not volume, in the covered population — that is, payment would be increasingly linked to population health measures such as reliable drug availability when needed, achievement of effective stewardship, and real-world data and evidence collection. These population-based payment models would not require public and private payers to pay more than they already do with FFS payments for high priority antimicrobials. Instead, the models would drive a restructuring of payments to better reflect the value these drugs provide, analogous to shifts toward value-based payment taking place in other areas of health care payment. This approach would encourage high-value, sustainable use and delink ROI from volume. The PAVE Award reflects the pluralistic structure and limited public financing and regulatory role in the US healthcare system, and builds upon approaches proposed by private foundations, other countries, and multinational organizations to support the development of priority antimicrobials (Figure 1).
Outline of Priority Antimicrobial Value and Entry (PAVE) Award
Adapted from G. W. Daniel et al., Value-Based Strategies for Encouraging New Development of Antimicrobial Drugs, Robert J. Margolis, M.D., Center for Health Policy at Duke UniversityReference Daniel10

The PAVE Award would utilize a phased-in approach to allow antimicrobial developers to establish market access prior to negotiating value-based contracts with payers. Antimicrobials that would receive PAVE Award payments would target high-priority pathogens, using eligibility criteria set by an independent panel. Eligibility criteria could potentially be built off of the priority pathogens identified by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the World Health Organization.11 Initially, benchmark payments would reward innovation in a tiered manner upon market entry.Reference Rex and Outterson12 Over subsequent years, each annual MER payment would be contingent upon the company demonstrating increased revenue from private and public payers in the form of payments tied to population value across the plan membership, through payments linked to measures of drug supply availability, appropriate stewardship, and collection of real-world data and evidence on drug utilization and effectiveness in the post-market setting. Establishment of value-based contracts between manufacturers and payers is an important component of this model because it shifts payment away from reimbursing for volume of use, and instead aligns payment with the ongoing public health value that antimicrobials provide. The Duke-Margolis PAVE Award can address some of the obstacles to action on MER legislation, by reducing the budgetary impact and need for a new government regulatory structure to assure that the manufacturer meets the intent of the delinkage features of other proposals.
The PAVE Award could serve as the logical next step from BARDA and CARB-X support by providing companies who produce high-priority drugs with a path to positive ROI, predictable returns, and a sustainable sales program. By leveraging both public and private contributions, the PAVE Award would also build upon the public-private partnership model that BARDA and CARB-X have successfully implemented. In order for these programs to effectively build on one another, they must have complementary acceptance criteria and have similar definitions of what constitutes a high priority drug.
Market Entry Rewards within the Broader Incentive Landscape
The US has recently recognized AMR as an important public health threat, and in response has increased funding for basic research,Reference Kaiser13 formed public-private partnerships to support clinical development of novel drugs,14 and proposed draft legislation to improve the ROI for antimicrobial drugs.15
For example, the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA) and the recently launched Combating Antibiotic Resistant Bacteria Biopharmaceutical Accelerator (CARBX) formed public-private partnerships that provide funding to companies that are working to develop novel antimicrobials and diagnostics for bacterial infections; CARB-X supports preclinical research and development while BARDA provides resources through all phases of clinical development. Through these arrangements, BARDA and CARB-X provide non-dilutive funding to help companies bring their drug candidates across the so-called “valley of death.”16
These organizations provide “push” incentives for antimicrobial companies by removing some of the financial risk associated with development and by boosting potential ROI. However, in the absence of an MER model, drugs supported by these programs will still face low revenue from volume-based sales once approved, limiting the incentives for manufacturers to move beyond earlier stages of development. The PAVE Award could serve as the logical next step from BARDA and CARB-X support by providing companies who produce high-priority drugs with a path to positive ROI, predictable returns, and a sustainable sales program. By leveraging both public and private contributions, the PAVE Award would also build upon the public-private partnership model that BARDA and CARB-X have successfully implemented. In order for these programs to effectively build on one another, they must have complementary acceptance criteria and have similar definitions of what constitutes a high priority drug.
In addition to the pre-market incentives that have been put in place for antimicrobial development, there have been several legislative proposals put forward that aim to improve the success of the antibiotics market in the US. One example is the Developing and Innovative Strategy for Antimicrobial Resistant Microorganisms (DISARM), which would boost Medicare reimbursement for inpatient antimicrobials that are used under a diagnosis-related group (DRG). Another is the Reinvigorating Antibiotic and Diagnostic Innovation (READI) Act, which would provide tax credits for research and development for antimicrobial drugs and diagnostics. Both of these initiatives work within the current payment system to provide antimicrobial developers with an increased ROI, and so do not address the challenges of steward-ship and appropriate use, nor would they address the other problems with volume-based reimbursement or recognize the public health value that high priority antimicrobials bring.
It is encouraging that lawmakers have been exploring ways to increase the development of antimicrobials because legislation will also be required to implement any MER model. While the MER would provide a clear reward for developers, predictability and sustainability of financing for the award will be critical to its impact. The PAVE Award does not recommend a specific payment method, but in both the draft congressional legislation and the IDSA Workgroup principles, funding for the reward would come from general appropriations. However, relying on appropriations may introduce uncertainty into the award process, as reliable forward appropriation of funds may be challenging. Given that it can take over 8 years from first-in-human testing to ultimately receive FDA approval, an award that is not guaranteed when the drug is approved is less likely to serve as a strong incentive for a company to invest.Reference Kaitin and DiMasi17 The PAVE Award, while still requiring some public funds, would leverage payments from the private sector to reduce the level of appropriations that would be needed.
Next Steps for Market Entry Rewards in the US
Prior to implementation, further development of the qualification criteria, mechanism for administration and coordination, and source of funds for the MER will also need to be addressed — though as noted above, these issues may be more straightforward with the PAVE award than with other proposals that envision a larger government role or funding. However, further PAVE model refinement, in collaboration with US private payers, will be needed. Finally, for any model implemented in the US to be ultimately effective and sustainable, global coordination with other country-specific approaches will be needed.
Funding a Market Entry Reward in the US
As described above, in the US, setting aside a large amount of public funds is often not politically feasible, but there are several alternative options to consider for funding an MER. One possible approach would be to rely on transferable exclusivity vouchers (TEVs). TEVs would be valuable to manufacturers of drugs that generate high sales, since additional exclusivity would generate significant additional revenues. The government could make a TEV available to the MER recipient. Alternatively, the government could auction off a small number of TEVs per year, placing proceeds in an innovation fund used to reward successful development of high priority antimicrobial products.Reference Outterson and McDonnell18 The TEV conditions (duration, number, maximum value, etc.) could be altered to assure that the magnitude of the financial rewards was in line with congressional intent.19 While avoiding the need for government appropriations, this financing option would delay market entry of generic equivalents, delaying the reduction of drug prices from generic competition for the affected drugs.
Alternatively, public funds could be raised through taxes or fees on relevant stakeholders. For example, the AMR Review suggested a “pay or play” model, in which manufacturers that are not invested in antimicrobial development would be charged a fee.20 The argument is that many therapeutic areas (including chemotherapy and surgery) are dependent on antimicrobials; since the industry as a whole depends on effective antimicrobials, drug manufacturers should contribute to antimicrobial development through investment in their own antimicrobial R&D or by paying a fee. Another possible method for generating funds is through a tax on all antibiotic prescriptions, as suggested in the PACCARB report and others.Reference Ferraro, Towse and Mestre-Ferrandiz21 The purpose of this tax would be to not only generate funds to reward antimicrobial development, but also to discourage inappropriate use of current antimicrobials by increasing the cost of use.
Award Administration
Once funding is secured for the MER, an appropriate agency or organization would need to be responsible for administering the award, that is, evaluating whether potential recipients meet the criteria and for distributing funds over the period of the MER. Given its involvement in other initiatives related to antimicrobial development, the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA) would be a reasonable entity to take on this role. Because BARDA already facilitates public-private partnerships with antimicrobial companies during the clinical development phases, administering an MER may be a natural continuation of that program. BARDA is currently responsible for selecting projects and administering contracts with antimicrobial companies, so their expertise is well aligned for continued support of antimicrobial manufacturers. They also have long-term experience with public-private partnerships, which would be valuable for the implementation of an MER, particularly the PAVE Award. Further, the Pandemic and All-Hazards Preparedness Act (PAHPA) is up for re-authorization in 2018, creating an opportunity for incorporating an MER program.
Distributing Award Payments
Some MER proposals envision a one-time, lump sum award; in others, like the PAVE Award, the award would be distributed over a number of years. While a one-time payment may seem simplest to administer, such proposals usually envision a major role for the government in overseeing the continued reliable availability of the antimicrobial and its distribution. In contrast, a multiyear contract can help ensure that the manufacturer adheres to performance requirements that are expected for the MER to have is intended effects, such as drug availability, support for steward-ship, data collection and surveillance, etc.
In the congressional draft legislation, the award payment would be made in one upfront installment with the understanding that the government would “claw back” the money if conditions around drug pricing and access were not met. Both the IDSA Working Group proposal and the PAVE Award propose to distribute payments in installments over the course of five years. Under the PAVE Award, the total amount that should be paid out to the manufacturers over time remains to be determined, but the overall amount should be reflective of the value that the drug provides to public health. The PAVE Award suggests using the benchmarking method, which would provide manufacturers with a base amount, with potential add-ons for drugs that represent greater value.Reference Ferraro, Towse and Mestre-Ferrandiz21 For example, a drug that treats multi-drug infections through a novel mechanism of action would be prioritized over a drug that is a modification of an existing drug class. Scientific experts, clinicians, public health officials, and patients will need to weigh in on what characteristics should be prioritized for greater financial rewards.
The awards provided over time require mechanisms for determining whether the manufacturer continues to meet the award criteria. The PAVE award envisions the government verifying that the manufacturer has established value-based payment models with payers; such criteria are used now to adjust payments under Medicare's payment systems. The IDSA approach would require the government to set and monitor actual performance on criteria for access and steward-ship, with this monitoring occurring on top of volume-based payment mechanisms for the drug that are not aligned with the performance goals.
An early indication of MER success will be more than one manufacturer working on drugs that have similar targets, which raises the question of whether new drugs should receive the MER if they are second or third to enter the market, and if so, how much should they receive in relation to the first entrant. If only the first drug to market is rewarded, then the reward will be less predictable, and it will maintain a high level of risk for developers. However, administrators of the MER will also wish to avoid providing a large financial incentive to copycat drugs that bring little innovation to the space. Potential solutions, like early product registration or decreasing reward amount for subsequent products, may help balance these issues. Further work is needed to determine the most appropriate award limits as well as viable mechanisms that can be implemented to promote innovation.
Implementing the Payment Reform Component of PAVE
Unlike the other MER proposals, the PAVE Award includes significant incentives for the adoption of value-based payments in payer contracts for antimicrobials that shift incentives away from volume in a manner that matches the intent of stewardship programs for appropriate use. While payers would not be required to pay more than they do today under FFS, implementation of alternative payment models (APMs) would require new contracting models and performance measures to be worked out in collaboration with the payer community. For example, the payment reforms might include a per-member per-month or episode-based component of payment, supported by performance measures and real-world evidence.
Payers will need to see value in these contracts in order to agree to negotiate new payment models with antimicrobial manufacturers. Bundled and episode-based provider payments adjusted by performance measures are often used to support improving the quality of care provided to patients and to avoid overuse. Payers and drug manufacturers have also started to implement outcomes-based contracts, where rebates are provided to the payer if the drug does not meet predetermined outcomes. As a result of this shifting payment environment, payers and manufacturers are developing more experience and confidence with population-based payment contracts. However, many of these agreements involve high-priced drugs, where payers risk paying a lot for limited results. In the case of antibiotics, the magnitude of costs at stake for payers is lower. With smaller direct benefits for payers, they may need support in developing tools, templates, or models for such contracts.
There are several kinds of performance measures that might be considered when implementing value-based payment models for antimicrobials. First, measures could assess whether the antimicrobial is available to the covered population reliably when needed. This component should be relatively easy to measure through payer communications with their associated providers, as well as through FDA monitoring of drug shortage issues. Second, measures could assess adherence to appropriate use criteria. This component could build upon antimicrobial stewardship programs that are mandated in many hospitals and clinics, removing volume-based sales incentives for manufacturer representatives, and establishing criteria that specify the appropriate patient population for a given drug. In addition, the CDC's Antimicrobial Use Option of the National Healthcare Safety Network is available to hospitals to report antibiotic use data, which could help to track appropriate use. A final important type of measure for establishing value-based contracts is assessment of the continued effectiveness of the contracted antimicrobial. This component could be supported by a registry related to drug use and outcomes. Additionally, CDC surveillance of resistance could be utilized to assess whether the antimicrobial remains effective against certain targets.
A growing number of international expert groups have identified MERs as the most viable “pull” option to address the growing unmet health need for antimicrobials for resistant organisms. However, the details of an optimal MER are likely to depend on the characteristics of a country's healthcare system and its financing. Additionally, due to governing and administration issues, it is unlikely that all countries would be willing to contribute funds to a single, common pool. While AMR impacts the entire world, and each country has different healthcare system and economic resources, complementary and reinforcing approaches are needed. While the US system is not well suited for providing substantial new resources for a government-procured and -managed antimicrobial, the PAVE Award proposal shows that a US approach that builds on private funding and a pluralistic health care system can complement more government-centered approaches in other countries.
These payment reforms and measures would strengthen the existing infrastructure that has been put in place for antimicrobial stewardship programs and appropriate use. Many of these programs require the development of pathways for use, requiring diagnostic confirmation of infection, and de-escalation of antimicrobial therapy if evidence of inappropriate use is found. Payers and providers can build upon these clinical pathways with guidance from the manufacturers about when use of their drug is most appropriate. Enhancing evidence-based clinical pathways for antimicrobial use, coupled with financial risk if they are not followed, could improve stewardship and appropriate use of high-priority antimicrobials.
Prior to or as part of legislation, a pilot program consistent with the PAVE Award could be implemented — e.g., a pilot payment reform for high-priority antimicrobials in Medicare. In addition to validating the guiding principles for the PAVE Award, pilot projects should aim to provide additional information about the outcome measures and datasets that will be needed to implement these agreements on a larger scale. Some of the issues that will need to be addressed in a pilot project are the following: (1) how an agreement might work for inpatient vs. outpatient drugs, (2) payment variability between private and public payers, and (3) strategies to integrate providers. There are several issues that could potentially be tested to address these categories. One is to create an add-on payment for infection-related DRGs, where execution of particular value measures (such as reporting use, using a diagnostic, or reporting effectiveness data) would be rewarded with additional payment. Another option would be for CMS to provide manufacturers an episode-based fee in exchange for access to the drug for patients in a given DRG, regardless of whether the drug is used.
Global Coordination on a Market Entry Reward
A growing number of international expert groups have identified MERs as the most viable “pull” option to address the growing unmet health need for antimicrobials for resistant organisms. However, the details of an optimal MER are likely to depend on the characteristics of a country's healthcare system and its financing. Additionally, due to governing and administration issues, it is unlikely that all countries would be willing to contribute funds to a single, common pool. While AMR impacts the entire world, and each country has different healthcare system and economic resources, complementary and reinforcing approaches are needed. While the US system is not well suited for providing substantial new resources for a government-procured and -managed antimicrobial, the PAVE Award proposal shows that a US approach that builds on private funding and a pluralistic health care system can complement more government-centered approaches in other countries. Finding solutions tailored to each participating nation can encourage multiple countries to take action together, and potentially address the issue of the “free-rider” problem, where some countries would receive access to the drug without committing funds or implementing steward-ship programs.
The PAVE Award moves toward a population and value-based approach and was designed with the US market in mind. However, value-based payment for healthcare products is not unique to the US, and this type of payment model can be applied within other countries. Many countries are developing or implementing value-based payment models, and many of the PAVE Award principles could be utilized within these settings. All countries do not need to adapt the PAVE Award in the same way for it to be successful. Instead, the PAVE Award provides points at which that coordination could occur. For example, the requirements that manufacturers will have to meet in order to qualify for the PAVE Award (specifically, maintaining availability of the drug, continued data collection, and sustainable use) could be broadly applied by other countries in their payment models. The requirement to maintain availability of the drug would improve access, while the requirements around data collection would allow both manufacturers and providers to better assess the patient population that is most appropriate for use of the particular drug. Further, coordinated surveillance of AMR, which might include shared data on infections and antimicrobial use, can also help to address issues of stewardship and access. As more health care systems develop capacities to promote appropriate use with aligned health care payments, the more coordinated surveillance and evidence development will be feasible, enabling more progress toward an effective global response to antimicrobial resistance.
Conclusion
While there are still several issues that remain to be resolved, momentum continues to build for the implementation of a MER to incentivize the development of innovative antimicrobial products. The PAVE Award approach can help to achieve success of this model by leveraging both public and private financing to incentivize innovative antimicrobial development. This reward model will delink ROI from volume of sales, serving the dual purpose of supporting appropriate use and providing an incentive to develop antimicrobials, which is needed to ensure continued availability of drugs to combat antimicrobial infections. The PAVE Award works within the distinct features of the US healthcare system, and could support an MER model in a financially sustainable and enduring way. Further stakeholder cooperation is needed to reach consensus and ensure timely implementation of this promising model.
Acknowledgments
Funding for the PAVE Award proposal development was funded in part through grants from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration and from Merck & Co.

