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The Statistical Analysis of Misreporting on Sensitive Survey Questions

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  11 April 2017

Gregory Eady*
Affiliation:
Department of Political Science, University of Toronto, 100 St. George Street, Toronto, Ontario, Canada,  M5S 3G3. Email: gregory.eady@gmail.com
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Abstract

What explains why some survey respondents answer truthfully to a sensitive survey question, while others do not? This question is central to our understanding of a wide variety of attitudes, beliefs, and behaviors, but has remained difficult to investigate empirically due to the inherent problem of distinguishing those who are telling the truth from those who are misreporting. This article proposes a solution to this problem. It develops a method to model, within a multivariate regression context, whether survey respondents provide one response to a sensitive item in a list experiment, but answer otherwise when asked to reveal that belief openly in response to a direct question. As an empirical application, the method is applied to an original large-scale list experiment to investigate whether those on the ideological left are more likely to misreport their responses to questions about prejudice than those on the right. The method is implemented for researchers as open-source software.

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Type
Articles
Copyright
Copyright © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of the Society for Political Methodology. 
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Table 1. Respondent types defined by the response ($Z_{i}^{\ast }$, $D_{i}$).

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Table 2. Observed-data likelihood.

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Table 3. Weights, $w_{i}^{(\cdot )}$, as calculated in the E-step.

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Figure 1. Simulation study 1 results. These figures present a comparison by root mean squared error (RMSE), bias, and confidence interval coverage of the standard list experiment estimator (dashed line) (Imai 2011) to the proposed estimator (solid line) in populations containing different proportions of those who misreport.

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Figure 2. Simulation study 2 results. These figures show a comparison of the standard estimator (black) (Imai 2011) and proposed estimator (white) by root mean squared error (RMSE), bias, and confidence interval coverage for the sensitive-item sub-model of a list experiment with covariates. Results for the control-items and misreport sub-models are available in the online appendix.

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Figure 3. Simulation study 3 results. These figures show root mean squared error (RMSE), bias, and confidence interval coverage for two Monte Carlo simulation studies that examine the properties of the misreport sub-model. Panel A presents results for the misreport sub-model from a simulation study in which the proportion of those holding the sensitive belief is varied from 0.1 to 0.9 at 0.1 intervals; Panel B presents results from the misreport sub-model in which the proportion of those who misreport is varied from 0.1 to 0.9 at 0.1 intervals.

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Figure 4. Agreement with statement regarding gender equality in politics. This figure presents estimates of the proportion of agreement with the statement “women are as competent as men in politics” as calculated using responses to the list experiment and direct questions.

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Table 4. Multivariate list experiment results.

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Figure 5. Predicted probabilities of support for and misreporting of a belief that “women are as competent as men in politics.” The left panel shows predicted probabilities of support for the statement “Women are as competent as men in politics” across the range of the ideological self-placement variable. The right panel shows the predicted probabilities of misreporting this belief among those who believe that women are not as competent as men. 95% prediction intervals are shown in gray, as calculated from 5,000 Monte Carlo simulations.

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