These two books present an invaluable and unique contribution to the understanding of terrorism and its outcomes. The strength of both books lies in the refreshing perspective that they offer. Despite the dramatic proliferation of studies on terrorism since 9/11/01, the sociological, social-psychological, and economic angles of the phenomenon have not yet received the theoretical attention given to the political publications.
Though both books should become essential reading for students of terrorism, they could not be more different. The Faces of Terrorism offers a comprehensive theoretical attempt to explain the causes and dynamics as well as the consequences of terrorism and how to control it. Written by Neil J. Smelser, one of the most influential sociologists of our times, it is a result of a study sponsored by the National Academy of Sciences. Terrorism, Economic Development and Political Openness is edited by two economists from the World Bank, Philip Keefer and Norman Loayza. The majority of the contributors to the volume are prominent economists and scholars of political economy. Even the structure of the books could not have been more dissimilar. The first progresses from the roots of terrorism to its outcomes, while the second begins with chapters on the costs of terrorism and ends with discussions on the origins of the challenge. Yet the main difference between the books is manifested in the perspective from which the author and editors depart. While Smelser remains on a broad theoretical level and offers a bird's-eye view, the contributors to Keefer and Loyaza's volume zoom in on more specific questions, by utilizing a quantitative empirical approach.
Smelser applies his extensive understanding of human behavior and collective action to the study of terrorism. He uses various sociological theories, including relative deprivation, political opportunity structure, and his own structural strain theory, in a successful attempt to prove that terrorism is a multicasual social phenomenon, and that as a result it should be studied in a broader context than as sui generis. Though the book is academic by nature, I found the author's writing style to be clear and engaging. One of the more appealing aspects of the book were the boxes embedded in the various chapters. In these boxes Smelser puts aside the academic jargon and shares with the reader his own views and experiences. I was also impressed by his ability to overcome many of the problems that are inherent in the study of terrorism. One example is the exclusion of state terrorism from the book. While he acknowledges the importance of this phenomenon, he rightfully chose not to deal with it. I agree with his contention that the outcomes of state terrorism are in most cases more horrific than those of terrorism that is perpetrated by sub- or supra-state actors. Yet in order to understand the causes and dynamics of the latter on a theoretical level, the former, which is different by nature, should be excluded from this framework and addressed in a different study.
The two chapters of the book that deal with the ideologies and personal motivations of terrorists are of particular importance. Smelser analyzes ideology as a social construct. This fits very well with a growing understanding of what produces terrorism. Rather than blaming specific ideologies or religions, we should look into the forces within all ideologies that drive a minority of their adherents to extremism and violence. The analysis of personal motivations that follows adds significantly to the literature. Once again, the author suggests that no single explanation can account for all the individual motivations to engage in terrorism. Thus, he is dismissive of neither psychological explanations that lately have become less fashionable nor of the sociological and economic ones. This, in my opinion, reinforces the importance of carrying out rigorous interdisciplinary empirical research, which is still largely missing from the research on personal motivations and group processes.
Moving to the response to terrorism, Smelser looks at the effects of terrorist attacks at the social level in various scenarios, starting from rare occurrences and ending with a continuous campaign of terror. Then, he moves on to discuss modes of response to terrorism, both in the short and long runs, and identifies the advantages and disadvantages of the different tools. I found the realistic analysis of the costs of various counterterrorism approaches extremely interesting and sobering. The book ends with an interesting appendix that deals with the question of the definition of terrorism from a scientific viewpoint. Smelser's observations contribute significantly to a debate that has accompanied the study of terrorism since it first emerged.
The question at the heart of the second volume is to what extent terrorism is related to development, mostly in the economic sense. The various authors examine different potential links between the two phenomena. The opening chapter by Todd Sandler and Walter Enders presents empirical evidence that the costs of terrorism are much higher in small and poor countries than in larger, more affluent ones. Some of the reasons for this are embedded in the fact that larger and richer countries are more capable of making policy adaptations and in diverting resources in order to help the affected sectors. In a less statistically sophisticated yet enlightening analysis, Gregory F, Treverton et al. present a careful estimation of the price tag that is attached to the response to terrorism in The Cost of Responding to Terrorist Threats: The U.S. Case.
Through a meticulous collection of data from a variety of sources, they offer an estimation of the economic costs of various aspects of the U.S. counterterrorism policies in comparison with those of the UK. Some of their conclusions are especially interesting and counterintuitive. For example only 1% to 2% of the U.S. GDP is devoted to such tasks. Moreover, most of the expenditure on counterterrorism is a result of military operations abroad.
S. Brock Blomberg and Gregory D. Hess's first chapter of two, which opens the second part of the book, reintroduces a sophisticated quantitative analysis for assessing the influence of development on terrorism. They find that cross-national terrorism is positively associated with increasing development. Yet a closer look at the data shows that in developing countries, this trend is reversed. As for domestic terrorism, it is actually negatively tied to levels of development. Their second chapter, which looks into the ties between globalization and terrorism, suggests that increasing levels of development, democracy, and openness create a safer environment in countries from which terrorism originates. On the flip side, such improving conditions make the country more likely to become a target for terrorists.
Alan B. Krueger and David D. Laitin offer a slightly different angle. They find that economic indicators, such as GDP and illiteracy, are not good predictors for assessing whether terrorism will originate from a specific country. They conclude that such ties are indirect and are actually mediated by noneconomic variables, most prominently the levels of repression. Nicholas Sambains takes this critical approach to the impact of development on terrorism even further. His argument is that terrorism is a complex phenomenon that can appear in various situations and cannot be explained by a single model. Further, he asserts that levels of income or democracy are unlikely to be good variables in explaining this phenomenon. Yet in cases where terrorism appears as a tactic within the broader context of a civil war, enhanced levels of development carry some potential to bring its decline.
The next chapter by David D. Laitin and Jacob N. Shapiro differs from the previous chapters in the sense that it is less focused on offering policy solutions than on methodological and theoretical questions. These authors, who perceive terrorism as a tactic that rebel groups adopt, argue that in order to offer models for explaining terrorist campaigns, rather than merely measuring the number of terrorist attacks, there is a need to offer a new dependent variable—the ratio between terrorist attacks and other actions taken by the rebels. This sophisticated suggestion carries the potential for devising theories that will reflect reality more closely. As hinted earlier, most of the contributors to Keefer and Loayza's volume seem to agree with Smelser that it is impossible to find a single variable or model for predicting or even explaining terrorism and that we have to accept the fact that this is actually a multifaceted phenomenon. This is clearly reflected in Fernanda Llussá and José Tavares's concluding chapter. Though they look at the studies of terrorism from the perspective of economists, they offer a broad and interdisciplinary approach for filling the many gaps that still need to be addressed, despite the recent theoretical progress in the field.
A main bonus of this book can be found in the appendices section, where the editors offer highly important information, including abstracts of dozens of articles dealing with the interface of terrorism and economics. These two books clearly indicate an increasing sophistication in the theoretical and empirical studies of terrorism and are highly recommended for both scholars and policymakers.
