A Predictable Tragedy is a powerful analysis of Robert Mugabe and the ruling ZANU-PF party elites' efforts to corrupt, exploit and co-opt Zimbabwe's institutions. According to Compagnon and contrary to the belief of many observers, the subjugation of civil society, suppression of political opposition and collapse of the national economy were not consequences of the post-2000 ‘land reform’ programme when most commercial farms were violently seized by the government. They were in effect ‘hard-wired’ into the ethos of Mugabe and ZANU-PF, and as such were ‘predictable’.

In this book, Compagnon sets himself the ambitious analytical task of developing a ‘better understanding of the process of institutional decay and growing authoritarianism generated by Mugabe's long tenure of power, in a country that had high potential in 1980’. He explores the utility of violence, civil society, political opposition, the media and the judiciary, land reform, the plunder of state resources, and international responses to Mugabe's political manoeuvring. Through this analysis, Compagnon demonstrates how Mugabe and the ruling elite have sought to achieve authoritarian control in a one-party state, while simultaneously obtaining great personal wealth by monopolising state resources and institutionalising indebtedness. Since these objectives of wealth and power are also well-established in existing literature, Compagnon's findings may initially appear insubstantial or simplistic. However, he supports these findings with consistently probing and robust analysis that persuasively demonstrates how the complex and deeply rooted ZANU-PF apparatus achieved these basic objectives. His evidence is carefully and systematically presented without allowing his arguments to become too bogged down in the detail.

Special criticism is rightly reserved for academics and international observers who, in Compagnon's view, have for various reasons admired Mugabe in spite of evidence demonstrating his authoritarian and self-serving tendencies. Such individuals had the privilege of commenting on Zimbabwe's politics without having to live with the policies. He observes how many in the international community, including specialists on Zimbabwe, only really understood Mugabe and ZANU-PF after the year 2000, when faced with the beginning of overwhelmingly destructive farm seizures.

On the one hand, Compagnon presents a catalogue of legal and extra-legal methods used by Mugabe to transform the promising and optimistic Zimbabwe at independence in 1980 into a pariah nation of lawlessness, violence, poverty and authoritarian rule whose leader, in the author's words, had become an international embarrassment for the African continent by 2008. On the other hand, while Zimbabwe's institutions were gradually undermined in the three decades after independence, Compagnon demonstrates that they have been surprisingly resilient. His account is testimony to the widespread and long-term efforts by ordinary Zimbabweans to protect and fight for democratic ideals that their nationalist leadership flouted. While Compagnon is ambivalent about Zimbabwe's future, the strength of its citizenry may be one of the few reasons for optimism.

This is a well-written book that belongs in the top tier of research on Zimbabwe politics. While it does not cover new ground, it provides a fresh and masterful analysis of the existing discussion on mechanisms of authoritarian control. It may be somewhat heavy-going for the casual observer of Zimbabwe, but will be a rewarding read for those with an on-going interest in the country.