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Cognitive reflection predicts utilitarian behavior in the monetary moral dilemma after 17 months

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  28 October 2026

Rozelin Vurgun*
Affiliation:
Department of Psychology, Kadir Has University, Istanbul, Türkiye
Ensar Acem
Affiliation:
Department of Psychology, Kadir Has University, Istanbul, Türkiye
Fırat Seker
Affiliation:
Department of Psychology, Kadir Has University, Istanbul, Türkiye Department of Psychological and Brain Sciences, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, USA
Burak Dogruyol
Affiliation:
Department of Psychology, Kadir Has University, Istanbul, Türkiye
Hasan G. Bahcekapili
Affiliation:
Department of Psychology, Istanbul Medipol University, Istanbul, Türkiye
Ozan Isler
Affiliation:
School of Economics, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia
Onurcan Yilmaz
Affiliation:
Department of Psychology, Kadir Has University, Istanbul, Türkiye
*
Corresponding author: Rozelin Vurgun (rozelin.vurgun@khas.edu.tr) and Onurcan Yilmaz (onurcan.yilmaz@khas.edu.tr)
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Abstract

The dual-process model of moral judgment proposes that utilitarian choices arise from reflective processes that can override intuitive, rule-based responses. Yet most supporting evidence relies on sacrificial dilemmas with limited ecological validity and problematic associations with antisocial traits. This preregistered study investigated whether individual differences in reflection predict utilitarian behavior in an incentivized setting. At Time 1, 1,200 U.S. participants completed performance-based measures of reflection, reasoning ability, dispositional thinking styles, and the Oxford Utilitarianism Scale (OUS). Seventeen months later, 321 participants completed a monetary moral dilemma with real economic consequences and reported their moral justifications. Initial measures of reflection, including the Cognitive Performance Test, Raven’s matrices, and open-minded thinking, predicted utilitarian behavior. Neither impartial beneficence nor instrumental harm subscales of the OUS predicted utilitarian behavior. Exploratory analyses showed that religiosity moderated the reflection–utilitarian behavior association: reflection predicted utilitarian behavior more strongly among non-believers than believers. These findings highlight reflection as a predictor of utilitarian behavior across time, question the validity of self-report utilitarianism scales such as the OUS, and underscore the importance of religious belief in cognitive reflection when examining individual differences in moral behavior.

Information

Type
Empirical Article
Creative Commons
Creative Common License - CCCreative Common License - BY
This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution and reproduction, provided the original article is properly cited.
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2026. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of Society for Judgment and Decision Making and European Association for Decision Making
Figure 0

Figure 1 Bonus distributions for the current and alternative arrangements in the monetary moral dilemma.

Figure 1

Table 1 Decision justification questionsTable 1. long description.

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Table 2 Summary of correlations, means, standard deviationsTable 2. long description.

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Table 3 Means, standard deviations, and correlations among moral justifications, utilitarian behavior, and OUS dimensionsTable 3. long description.

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Table 4 Correlations among moral justifications in the monetary moral dilemma and reflection measuresTable 4. long description.

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Figure 2 Interaction plot of religiosity and CPT reflection score on predicted probability of utilitarian behavior.

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