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On the probability of habitable planets

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  15 May 2013

François Forget*
Affiliation:
Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, IPSL, CNRS, UPMC, Paris, France e-mail: forget@lmd.jussieu.fr
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Abstract

In the past 15 years, astronomers have revealed that a significant fraction of the stars should harbour planets and that it is likely that terrestrial planets are abundant in our galaxy. Among these planets, how many are habitable, i.e. suitable for life and its evolution? These questions have been discussed for years and we are slowly making progress. Liquid water remains the key criterion for habitability. It can exist in the interior of a variety of planetary bodies, but it is usually assumed that liquid water at the surface interacting with rocks and light is necessary for emergence of a life able to modify its environment and evolve. The first key issue is thus to understand the climatic conditions allowing surface liquid water assuming a suitable atmosphere. These have been studied with global mean one-dimensional (1D) models which have defined the ‘classical habitable zone’, the range of orbital distances within which worlds can maintain liquid water on their surfaces (Kasting et al. 1993). A new generation of 3D climate models based on universal equations and tested on bodies in the solar system are now available to explore with accuracy climate regimes that could locally allow liquid water. The second key issue is now to better understand the processes which control the composition and the evolution of the atmospheres of exoplanets, and in particular the geophysical feedbacks that seem to be necessary to maintain a continuously habitable climate. From that point of view, it is not impossible that the Earth's case may be special and uncommon.

Information

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2013 
Figure 0

Fig. 1. The classical habitable zone (left) and the main atmospheric composition (right) of an Earth-analogue atmosphere as a function of distance from its host star. The classical habitable zone theory assumes that geophysical cycles will adjust the atmospheric CO2 content and its greenhouse effect to compensate for weaker radiation flux when distant from the star. Without that, the habitable zone would be here a thin blue line. On the right, the dashed-dotted line represents the surface temperature of the planet and the dashed lines correspond to the inner edge of the habitable zone. The grey zone corresponds to the incertitude related to the effects of CO2 ice clouds (see text). Figure from Kaltenegger & Selsis (2007) and Lammer et al. (2009) with data from Kasting et al. (1993) and Forget & Pierrehumbert (1997).

Figure 1

Fig. 2. Surface temperature snapshots from 3D global climate model simulations for extrasolar planet Gliese 581d, assuming a 20-bar CO2 atmosphere and for three possible rotation rates. Such 3D simulations can help in understanding in a better way the habitability of exoplanets, although it is necessary to make strong assumptions on the nature of the atmosphere. Figure from Wordsworth et al. (2011).