No CrossRef data available.
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 12 December 2005
We consider the problem of estimating measures of precision of shrinkage-type estimators such as their risk or distribution. The notion of shrinkage-type estimators here refers to estimators such as the James–Stein estimator and Lasso-type estimators, in addition to “thresholding” estimators such as, e.g., Hodges' so-called superefficient estimator. Although the precision measures of such estimators typically can be estimated consistently, we show that they cannot be estimated uniformly consistently (even locally). This follows as a corollary to (locally) uniform lower bounds on the performance of estimators of the precision measures that we obtain in the paper. These lower bounds are typically quite large (e.g., they approach ½ or 1 depending on the situation considered). The analysis is based on some general lower risk bounds and related general results on the (non)existence of uniformly consistent estimators also obtained in the paper.A preliminary draft of the results in Section 3 of this paper was written in 1999.
In virtually any statistical application one is not only interested in a point estimate of an unknown parameter by itself but also in a measure of the precision of the estimate. For example, one would like to obtain information on the risk or on the distribution of the estimator. As these quantities often depend on unknown parameters, one frequently has to be content with estimates of the risk or the distribution. In the present paper we are concerned with estimation of the risk or the distribution of shrinkage-type estimators. Under the umbrella of shrinkage-type estimators we subsume well-known estimators such as the James–Stein estimator and Hodges' superefficient estimator, in addition to penalized maximum likelihood (least squares) estimators including recent proposals such as the Lasso-type and Bridge estimators (cf. Tibshirani, 1996; Knight and Fu, 2000; Frank and Friedman, 1993) or the smoothly clipped absolute deviation (SCAD) estimators recently introduced by Fan and Li (2001). Furthermore, any estimator based on some sort of (soft or hard) thresholding rule falls into this category. Shrinkage-type estimators are obviously of interest as they attempt (successfully or not) to improve upon the maximum likelihood estimator (under normality assumptions). Furthermore, such estimators have also been suggested as remedies for the multicollinearity problem.
Although it is typically not difficult to construct consistent estimators for the risk or the distribution of shrinkage-type estimators, the results we obtain imply that any such estimator of the risk or the distribution necessarily has very poor performance in the sense that the maximum probability of the estimation error exceeding a certain threshold remains large even in large samples. To illustrate, we now sketch a simple special case of the results in Section 2. Let

be a shrinkage-type estimator (as considered in Sections 2.2 and 2.3) for a parameter vector

and let

be its cumulative distribution function (c.d.f.) at sample size n. Then there exists a δ > 0 such that for any consistent estimator

of Fn,θ(t) the relation

holds for n → ∞. That is, whereas the probability

converges to zero for every given θ by consistency, relation (1) shows that it does not do so uniformly in θ. It follows that

can never be uniformly consistent (not even when restricting consideration to compact subsets of the parameter space). Hence, a large sample size does not guarantee a small estimation error with high probability when estimating the risk or distribution of shrinkage-type estimators. As a consequence, reliably assessing the precision of shrinkage-type estimators constitutes an intrinsically hard (if not unsolvable) problem. It is interesting to note that the nonuniformity phenomena such as (1) arise near the origin, which is precisely that region of the parameter space where shrinkage-type estimators typically have the greatest advantage over the maximum likelihood estimator. Apart from results such as (1), we also provide minimax lower bounds for the performance of arbitrary (not necessarily consistent) estimators of the risk or the distribution of shrinkage-type estimators. For example, we show that there exists a δ > 0 such that

holds, where the lower bound c is typically large and can be computed. (In fact, we show that in (1) and (2) the balls ∥θ∥ < M can be replaced by (suitable) balls shrinking at the rate n−1/2.) We stress that any estimator for Fn,θ(t) obtained by whatever resampling method (bootstrap, subsampling, jackknife, etc.) is also subject to (1) and (2). This shows that resampling methods cannot alleviate the problem at all. For results similar to (1) and (2) in the context of model selection see Leeb and Pötscher (2003).
The results on shrinkage-type estimators mentioned previously share a common mathematical structure that is investigated in a more abstract framework in Section 3. The results in that section are roughly as follows: We consider an (abstract) set B of parameters indexing a set {Pn,β : β ∈ B} of probability measures and a functional of interest,

, say, that is to be estimated. Note that we need to allow the functional φn to depend on sample size to be able to subsume the results relating to shrinkage-type estimators mentioned earlier. (This feature also allows the results of Section 3 to be applied to the derivation of bounds on convergence rates in general; cf. Remark 3.1(v).) We then provide conditions on the estimand φn(β) and the set of probability measures implying the existence of a δ > 0 such that any consistent estimator

of φn(β) satisfies

for n → ∞. This relation implies nonexistence of uniformly consistent estimators for φn(β) but certainly is much stronger. The results we obtain in Section 3 are actually more general as the supremum over B in the preceding display may be replaced by a supremum over suitably “shrinking” subsets Bn, and φn may take values in a metric space. Furthermore, we also provide—analogously to (2)—minimax lower bounds for the performance of arbitrary (not necessarily consistent) estimators.
The remainder of the paper is organized as follows. Estimation of the risk of the James–Stein estimator is discussed in Section 2.1. Sections 2.2 and 2.3 treat estimation of the finite-sample distribution of Lasso-type estimators and of Hodges' superefficient estimator, respectively; the latter is analyzed as a prototypical yet simple instance of an estimator that is obtained by “hard thresholding” and that has the so-called oracle property in the sense of Fan and Li (2001). The techniques used for establishing these results are the subject of Section 3. In that section we study in an abstract framework lower bounds for the performance of estimators and, in particular, the existence/nonexistence of uniformly consistent estimators for sample-size-dependent functionals of interest. All proofs are relegated to the Appendixes.
Some words on notation: The c.d.f. of a normally distributed random vector with mean zero and covariance matrix Σ is denoted by ΦΣ, whereas the c.d.f. of a standard normally distributed random variable is denoted by Φ as usual. The transpose of a matrix A is denoted by A′. The largest eigenvalue of a symmetric matrix A is represented by λmax(A). The symbol ∥·∥ is used as a generic symbol for a norm on a vector space (e.g., in Sect. 3) or to denote the euclidean norm (e.g., in Sect. 2).
In this section we provide lower bounds on the performance of estimators of the risk or of the distribution of shrinkage-type estimators. In particular, it follows that these objects cannot be estimated uniformly consistently, not even over (suitable) shrinking subsets of the parameter space (and hence a fortiori not over all compacta). This is in stark contrast to the situation where the least squares estimator is employed instead. We furthermore note that all results in this section also hold for randomized estimators (cf. Lemma 3.6). All results in this section are derived for Gaussian models. However, this is not really a restriction because the results a fortiori also hold for any more general statistical model containing the Gaussian models of Sections 2.1–2.3, respectively.
To assess the actual variability of the James–Stein estimator an estimator of its risk is desirable. The problem of estimating the risk of the James–Stein estimator has been considered, e.g., in Stein (1981), George (1986), Jennrich and Oman (1986), Sen (1986), Adkins (1990, 1992), Venter and Steel (1990), and Kubokawa and Srivastava (2002). (A related strand of literature treats estimation of the loss; see Lu and Berger, 1989; Wan and Zou, 2004; and the references in these papers.) For example, Sen (1986) shows that various jackknife estimators for the risk do not work properly near the origin. In the following discussion we establish that this is in fact true for any estimator of the risk of the James–Stein estimator.
Consider observations Yi,i ≥ 1, that are independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) as N(θ,Ik), where Ik denotes the k-dimensional identity matrix. Let Pn,θ denote the distribution of the sample Y1,…,Yn of size n and let En,θ denote the corresponding expectation. Given an estimator

for θ we consider the quadratic risk

It is well known that for k ≥ 3 the James–Stein estimator

given by

dominates the maximum likelihood estimator

, where

; more precisely,

holds for every

and every n ≥ 1. This follows immediately from the well-known result

(cf., e.g., Judge and Bock, 1978, eqns. (8.3.6) and (8.3.7)). The improvement of

over

is substantial when the true parameter θ is close to zero. Indeed, if n1/2θ is small, then the preceding display shows that

is close to

, which is substantially smaller than

. For large n1/2θ the risk of

is close to the risk of

; in fact,

converges to k for every θ ≠ 0 and n → ∞. (To see this, observe that

. This inequality furthermore also shows that

is continuous in θ.)
Turning to estimation of the risk

, it is easy to construct consistent estimators for

. For example, estimate the risk by 2 if

and by k if

, where cn is a sequence of positive numbers satisfying cn → ∞ and n−1/2cn → 0. Obviously this estimator is not very useful and will perform poorly in finite samples when n1/2θ is close to, but different from, zero. The poor performance of this estimator is not accidental but is a genuine feature of the estimation problem and affects any estimator of the risk as the following result shows. For convenience we introduce for k ≥ 3 the function

. It is easy to see that Δ is continuous and strictly increasing for x ≥ 0, satisfies Δ(0) = 0 and limx→∞ Δ(x) = (k − 2)/2.
THEOREM 2.1. Suppose k ≥ 3. Then any consistent estimator

for the risk

of the James–Stein estimator satisfies

for every pair (δ,ρ) with 0 < ρ < ∞ and δ < Δ(ρ). Furthermore,

holds for every pair (δ,ρ) with 0 < ρ < ∞ and δ < Δ(ρ), where the inner infimum in

of the risk

. Moreover, for every ρ, 0 < ρ < ∞,

holds.1
The range of δ for which (3) and (4) hold for some ρ > 0 is given by δ < (k − 2)/2. This is quite natural, because for δ ≥ (k − 2)/2 the trivial estimator

satisfies

for every n ≥ 1.
The preceding theorem implies that the risk of the James–Stein estimator is difficult to estimate; in particular, it cannot be estimated uniformly consistently over balls around the origin. It is interesting to note that this difficulty arises precisely in that region of the parameter space where the James–Stein estimator has the biggest advantage over the maximum likelihood estimator in terms of risk.
Consider the linear model Yi = Xiθ + ui for i ≥ 1, where Xi is a nonstochastic 1 × k vector of regressors (k ≥ 1), θ is an unknown k × 1 parameter vector, and the errors ui are i.i.d. normal with mean zero and unit variance. Furthermore, assume that

converges to a finite positive-definite matrix Q. For

, let Pn,θ denote the distribution of the sample (Y1,…,Yn)′. We are interested in the estimator

that is obtained by minimizing the penalized least-squares criterion

over

. The constants λn are assumed to be positive and to satisfy n−1/2λn → λ with 0 < λ < ∞ as n → ∞. (The solution to the minimization problem (5) is unique provided

is positive-definite as (5) is then strictly convex. Hence, except possibly for finitely many n, the estimator

is well defined; it is also measurable as is easily seen.) This estimator is referred to as a Lasso-type estimator in Knight and Fu (2000) because it is closely related to the Lasso of Tibshirani (1996). It is a member of the class of Bridge estimators introduced by Frank and Friedman (1993). Knight and Fu (2000) also note that in the context of wavelet regression minimizing (5) is known as “basis pursuit” (cf. Chen, Donoho, and Saunders, 1998). In fact, in case

is diagonal, the Lasso-type estimator reduces to soft thresholding (in the sense of Donoho and Johnstone, 1994) of the coordinates of the maximum likelihood (least squares) estimator. In the terminology of the machine learning literature the Lasso-type estimator is an instance of a sparse kernel method. These estimators are also closely related to support vector machines.
Knight and Fu (2000) have studied the asymptotic distribution of the Lasso-type estimator

. Let Fn,θ denote the c.d.f. of

, i.e.,

and consider local perturbations θn = θ + νn−1/2 of θ with

. Then Knight and Fu (2000) show that Fn,θn converges weakly to a c.d.f. F∞,θ,ν that is given by

Here the random function Vθ,ν(u) is given by

where W is a k-dimensional normally distributed random vector with mean zero and covariance matrix Q. (The argmin of Vθ,ν is unique by strict convexity; it is clearly also measurable.) This result is established in Theorem 5(a) of Knight and Fu (2000) under assumptions slightly different from ours. Inspection of the proof, however, reveals that the result continues to hold under the assumptions of this subsection.
More explicit expressions for the asymptotic distribution (6) can be obtained in special cases and will be useful later. For example, if k = 1 simple but tedious calculations show that for θ ≠ 0

where ΦQ−1 denotes the c.d.f. of an N(0,Q−1) distribution. For θ = 0 one obtains

if t ≠ − ν and

In particular, F∞,0,ν puts mass ΦQ−1(−ν + λQ−1/2) − ΦQ−1(−ν − λQ−1/2) at t = −ν. If k > 1 and Q = diag(qjj) is diagonal, the components of the Lasso-type estimators are asymptotically independent, because minimizing (7) can be done coordinatewise and the components of W are independent. Explicit formulas for F∞,θ,ν(t) then immediately follow from (8)–(10):

where the marginal c.d.f.s F∞,θj,νj(tj) are given by (8)–(10) with qjj−1 taking the rôle of Q−1. In particular, (11) provides the asymptotic distribution of the soft thresholding estimator (in case

is diagonal). Note that F∞,θ,ν(t) puts positive mass on those hyperplanes tj = −νj for which θj = 0. In the case k > 1 and Q is not necessarily diagonal, it is also easy to see that F∞,θ,ν(t) is again given by (8) provided that θ has only nonzero coordinates and sign(θ) is interpreted as the column vector with ith coordinate equal to sign(θi). However, if some coordinates of θ are zero, the asymptotic distribution is not known explicitly for nondiagonal Q. (We conjecture that, similar to the case of diagonal Q, it puts mass on the previously mentioned hyperplanes and that F∞,θ,ν(t) coincides with the c.d.f. of a normal distribution for t not falling on any of these hyperplanes where the mean of the normal distribution depends on the position of t relative to the hyperplanes.) Cf. the discussion following Theorem 3 in Knight and Fu (2000).
Suppose now we are interested in estimating the finite-sample c.d.f. of the Lasso-type estimator

. Knight and Fu (2000) propose a bootstrap procedure for this purpose. They show (under their assumptions) that the proposed procedure provides an asymptotically valid approximation to the finite-sample c.d.f. Fn,θ for any θ that has only nonzero coordinates but fails to work otherwise. Knight and Fu (2000, p. 1371) then sketch a modification of the bootstrap procedure that may work asymptotically for all θ, but they also express doubts about the usefulness of this modification in finite samples, especially if some coordinates of θ are zero or close to zero. (An alternative estimator for the finite-sample c.d.f. of the Lasso-type estimator

that is consistent is sketched in note 2 in the notes section.
2An estimator

that is consistent for Fn,θ(t) at least if t has only nonzero coordinates can be obtained quite easily from the asymptotic distribution. We sketch such a construction in the following discussion. (Of course, this estimator is also subject to the criticism expressed in Theorems 2.2 and 2.3.) Apply a (strongly) consistent model selection procedure (e.g., Schwarz's Bayesian information criterion or a collection of hypothesis tests with suitable sample-size-dependent significance levels) to determine which coordinates of θ are zero and which are not. For the latter coordinates estimate sign(θj) by

, where

is a (strongly) consistent estimator for θ (e.g., least squares). Plug this information into the formula (7) for Vθ,0, also replacing Q by

, W by

, and λ by n−1/2λn, with Wn chosen independently of the data. The resulting function

now converges weakly to Vθ,0(u) for every

and for almost every realization of the data. By convexity it follows that

converges weakly to

almost surely. Define the estimator

, where P here represents the probability measure governing Wn. It follows that

converges almost surely to F∞,θ,0(t) for all t for which the latter c.d.f. is continuous and hence that

almost surely for such values of t. Lemma A.3 shows that any t with only nonzero coordinates is a continuity point of F∞,θ,0(t) for all

. (Whether or not

is consistent for all

is an open [but in light of the results in Section 2.2 somewhat moot] question. Note that Lemma A.3 also shows that

almost surely for all

provided θ has only nonzero coordinates.)

transpires from the following theorems. For simplicity, we shall use in the following discussion—for given

—the notation

to denote an arbitrary (real-valued) estimator of Fn,θ(t). This notation should not be taken as implying that the estimator is obtained by evaluating an estimated c.d.f. at the argument t or that it is constrained to lie between zero and one. For the remainder of Section 2.2 let Δ(t) be given by

which is always nonnegative.
THEOREM 2.2. Suppose

is given and assume that Δ(t) is positive. Then for every δ < Δ(t) there exists a ρ, 0 < ρ < ∞, which depends only on δ, t, Q, and λ, such that any consistent estimator

of Fn,θ(t) satisfies

Moreover, for every pair (δ,ρ) as before

holds, where the infimum extends over all estimators

of Fn,θ(t). Furthermore, there exists a ρ, 0 < ρ < ∞, which depends only on t, Q, and λ, such that

holds, where again the infimum extends over all estimators

of Fn,θ(t).
The preceding theorem maintains the assumption that Δ(t) is positive. For k = 1 or, more generally, for diagonal Q this assumption is obviously always satisfied. For nondiagonal Q it will be satisfied in most cases. For example, it is satisfied for all

if the matrix Q−1 possesses at least one column with only nonnegative entries (to see this, represent this column as Q−1e, set f = −e, and exploit monotonicity of ΦQ−1). More generally, Δ(t) is positive for all

if Q−1 admits a linear combination of its columns with weights ±1 such that this linear combination has only nonnegative entries.
For diagonal Q we obtain a result stronger than (13) and (14) in Theorem 2.3, which follows. We believe that a similar result could also be established for nondiagonal Q. We also conjecture that for general Q results similar to Theorems 2.2 and 2.3 hold over shrinking neighborhoods not only of zero but of any parameter value that has at least one zero coordinate. (This is quite straightforward to prove for diagonal Q, but establishing these results for the nondiagonal case would require a more detailed analysis of the structure of F∞,θ,ν, which is beyond the scope of the paper.)
THEOREM 2.3. Suppose Q is diagonal and

is given. Then Δ(t) = 2−1[ΦQ−1(t + λQ−1ι/2) − ΦQ−1(t − λQ−1ι/2)], where ι = (1,…,1)′ and Δ(t) is positive. Furthermore, (12) and

hold for every δ < Δ(t) and for every ρ > ∥t∥. Here again the infimum in (15) extends over all estimators

of Fn,θ(t).
In this section we are interested in estimating the finite-sample c.d.f. of Hodges' so-called superefficient estimator. We focus on Hodges' estimator mainly because it is a simple instance of a “thresholding” estimator, a class of estimators having gained prominence in the wavelet literature in recent years. In fact, we shall consider a slightly more general class of estimators based on hard thresholding. It should perhaps be noted though that such estimators have already been studied earlier under the heading “pre-test” estimators in the statistics and econometrics literature (e.g., Judge and Bock, 1978; Bauer, Pötscher, and Hackl, 1988).
Consider observations Yi,i ≥ 1, that are i.i.d. as N(θ,1) with

. Let Pn,θ denote the distribution of the sample Y1,…,Yn of size n. The class of estimators considered is given by

if |Y | ≤ n−1/2cn and by

if |Y | > n−1/2cn, where Y represents the arithmetic mean of the sample and cn satisfies cn > 0, cn → ∞, and n−1/2cn → 0 for n → ∞. Hodges' estimator (in its simplest form) corresponds to the case cn = n1/4. It is well known and easy to see that

if θ = 0 and that

if θ ≠ 0 as n → ∞. This immediately implies that the asymptotic distribution of

is point-mass at zero if θ = 0 and that it coincides with the asymptotic distribution of Y, the (unrestricted) maximum likelihood estimator, otherwise. This property of the asymptotic distribution is often referred to as “superefficiency” of the estimator.
Let Gn,θ denote the finite-sample distribution of the (scaled and centered) estimator

, i.e.,

for

. It is easy to see that Gn,θ(t) is given by
From the previous paragraph we know that Gn,θ converges weakly to G∞,θ for every

, where G∞,θ(t) = Φ(t) if θ ≠ 0 and G∞,θ(t) = 1(0 ≤ t) if θ = 0. The formulas for the finite-sample c.d.f. even show that Gn,θ(t) converges to G∞,θ(t) for every

. It is now easy to construct a consistent estimator for Gn,θ(t) for any given

: Put

if

; otherwise define

. Alternatively, one can obtain a consistent estimator for Gn,θ(t) by plugging

into the formula for Gn,θ(t) given before. Although both estimators are consistent, it is quite obvious that their performance will be poor if θ is close to, but different from, zero. That this is not only a property of these two particular estimators but is a genuine feature of the estimation problem is shown in the following theorem. As in Section 2.2, we shall—for given

—use the notation

to denote an arbitrary (real-valued) estimator of Gn,θ(t).
THEOREM 2.4. Suppose

is given. Then any consistent estimator

of Gn,θ(t) satisfies

for every δ < ½ and every ρ > |t|. Moreover, for every n ≥ 1

holds for every δ < [Φ(cn + t) − Φ(−cn + t)]/2 and every ρ > |t|, where the infimum extends over all estimators

of Gn,θ(t). In particular,

holds for every δ < ½ and every ρ > |t|.
Remark 2.1. The “superefficiency” property of Hodges' estimator, i.e., the fact that its asymptotic distribution coincides with the asymptotic distribution of the restricted or unrestricted maximum likelihood estimator depending on whether the parameter satisfies the restriction θ = 0 or not, is also shared by post-model-selection (pre-test) estimators based on a consistent model selection procedure (cf., Pötscher, 1991, Lem. 1). The recently introduced SCAD estimators (Fan and Li, 2001, Thm. 2) exhibit a similar property: The asymptotic distribution of these estimators remains unchanged whether or not (valid) zero restrictions are imposed. This property has (somewhat unfortunately) been dubbed the “oracle” property in Fan and Li (2001).3
Although it is of no importance for the present paper, we feel compelled to point out that the “oracle” property is only a pointwise asymptotic concept. In view of the lessons learned from Hodges' estimator and its “superefficiency” one should hence be aware that the “oracle” property may give a very misleading impression of the actual performance of an estimator. For more discussion see Leeb and Pötscher (2005).
In this section we establish some general lower bounds on the performance of estimators; in particular, we provide conditions for the (non)existence of uniformly consistent estimators. These lower bounds form the basis for the results in the preceding section but are also of independent interest. Needless to say, the results in this section build on fundamental ideas that have been extensively used in the literature on lower risk bounds, some of the ideas dating back to Le Cam (1973). For surveys of the literature see Huber (1997) and Yu (1997). The purpose of the present section is to provide variants of such results that (i) are tailor-made for the applications in Section 2 and (ii) allow for the optimization of the lower bounds. These results enable one not only to make qualitative statements regarding the nonexistence of uniformly consistent estimators but also to quantitatively assess the seriousness of the nonuniformity problem.
Consider a sequence of statistical experiments described by a (nonempty) set B, the parameter space, which indexes a set

of probability measures for every n ≥ 1. Typically (but not necessarily), n represents sample size and Pn,β describes the distribution of the sample of size n. For each n, the measures Pn,β are defined on some measurable space

. The quantity of interest to be estimated at sample size n is given by φn(β), where φn is a function on B taking its values in a metric space (M,d). In applications, often M will be the real line or euclidean space. An estimator

for φn(β) is an M-valued function on Ωn that is measurable w.r.t.

and the Borel σ-field on M.
A sequence of estimators

for φn(β) is said to be consistent (on B) if for every β ∈ B and every δ > 0

holds for n → ∞. Furthermore,

is said to be uniformly consistent (on B) if for every δ > 0

holds for n → ∞. For later use we note that (20) is equivalent to requiring that (19) holds along sequences of parameters βn, i.e., that

holds for every sequence βn ∈ B and n → ∞.
The classical paper on (non)existence of (uniformly) consistent estimators is Le Cam and Schwartz (1960), which provides a characterization of existence in the context of an i.i.d. model and in case φn ≡ φ does not depend on sample size n. Related results can be found in Yatracos (1985), Pfanzagl (1998), and Pötscher (2002), the latter allowing for dependent and nonidentically distributed data. Roughly speaking, the common theme in these papers is that the existence of uniformly consistent estimators is tied to (appropriate) continuity properties of the estimand φ(β). In the following discussion we provide lower bounds for the performance of estimators, i.e., for the l.h.s. of (20), allowing in particular for sample-size-dependent estimands φn(β) and also for dependent and nonidentically distributed data. This of course entails conditions for the (non)existence of uniformly consistent estimators. (For a discussion contrasting these results with the results in case φn ≡ φ see Remark 3.1(iv), which appears later.)
If Bn is a sequence of (nonempty) subsets of B, we define the oscillation4
This notion of oscillation is different from the one used in Pötscher (2002).

Note that ω(φn,Bn) may be infinite. Informally speaking, given that the measures Pn,β for β ∈ Bn are “close” to one another in an appropriate sense (e.g., picture Bn as suitably “shrinking” sets), the existence of estimators that are “consistent uniformly over Bn” depends crucially on the behavior of the oscillation ω(φn,Bn) as n → ∞. This is formalized in the following two lemmas.
LEMMA 3.1. Let Bn, n ≥ 1, be a sequence of subsets of B with nonempty intersection and let α be an element of

. Suppose that the sequence Pn,βn is contiguous w.r.t. Pn,α for every sequence βn ∈ Bn.
(i) If δ* = lim infn→∞ ω(φn,Bn) > 0, then any estimator

for φn(β) satisfying

for every δ > 0 and n → ∞ (e.g., any consistent estimator) satisfies

for every δ < δ*/2; furthermore,

holds for every δ < δ*/2, where the infimum in (22) extends over all estimators

for φn(β).
5Although δ in (19) and (20) has to be positive, this is obviously not necessary in statements such as (21), (22), and (25). Moreover, δ* could be allowed to be zero in Lemma 3.1(i) or Lemma 3.2, although this would lead only to completely trivial results.

).
(ii) If lim supn→∞ ω(φn,Bn) = 0, then any estimator

for φn(β) satisfying

for every δ > 0 and n → ∞ (e.g., any consistent estimator) satisfies

for every δ > 0.
Some extensions of Lemma 3.1 are discussed in Remark B.1 in Appendix B. A result somewhat related to (21) is established in Pfanzagl (1998, Cor. 3.1) for i.i.d. models and for the case φn ≡ φ under a considerably stronger assumption on the functional φ. The next lemma provides a lower bound on the performance of arbitrary estimators that improves upon (22). This result is based on the total variation distance as a notion of “closeness” between probability measures and is closely related to Lemma 1 in Chen (1997). As Chen (1997) notes, the basic inequality underlying this lemma has been used in the literature before (e.g., Donoho and Liu, 1987, 1991), at least implicitly. The lemma is also similar in spirit to ideas used in Le Cam (1973); cf. Huber (1997) and Yu (1997). Recall that the total variation distance between finite measures Q and R defined on a measurable space

is given by

.
LEMMA 3.2. Let Bn,n ≥ 1, be a sequence of (nonempty) subsets of B. Suppose that the diameters of the sets {Pn,β : β ∈ Bn} w.r.t. total variation distance satisfy

with Γ < 1. If δ* = lim infn→∞ ω(φn,Bn) > 0, then

holds for every δ < δ*/2, where the infimum in (25) extends over all estimators

for φn(β). In particular, no uniformly consistent estimator for φn(β) exists (neither on B nor on

).
A finite-sample version of Lemma 3.2 is discussed in Remark B.2 in Appendix B. A key condition in Lemmas 3.1 and 3.2, and also in Corollary 3.4, which follows, is that δ* > 0. Simple sufficient conditions for δ* > 0 will be given in Lemma 3.5.
Observe that the l.h.s. of (25) decreases if the sets Bn are replaced by smaller subsets, whereas the r.h.s. increases. This suggests that for a given sequence Bn and a given δ < δ*/2, the lower bound in (25) can often be improved by the following strategy: Try to find Cn ⊆ Bn such that the sets {Pn,β : β ∈ Cn} have diameter w.r.t. total variation distance as small as possible, subject to the requirement that δ < 2−1 lim infn→∞ ω(φn,Cn) holds. (Often a natural choice is Cn = {Pn,βn(1),Pn,βn(2)} where βn(1),βn(2) in Bn are such that Pn,βn(1) and Pn,βn(2) are as close as possible in the total variation distance, subject to the requirement that lim infn→∞ d(φn(βn(1)),φn(βn(2))) > 2δ holds.) A (typically) improved bound for the l.h.s. of (25) is then obtained by applying Lemma 3.2 with Cn replacing Bn. A slightly refined version of this strategy is formalized in Lemma B.1 in Appendix B. This strategy gives rise to the following useful results.
COROLLARY 3.3. Assume B is equipped with a metric π such that the maps β [map ] Pn,β are asymptotically continuous at α ∈ B, i.e.,

holds for some sequence cn → 0, cn > 0. Suppose φn = φ and φ is discontinuous at α. Suppose further that the sets Bn ⊆ B contain α as an interior point for every n ≥ 1. Define η = infU ω(φ,U) where the infimum extends over all open balls U in B with center α. Then η is positive and

holds for every δ < η/2, where the infimum in (26) extends over all estimators

for φn(β).
In the next corollary, ζn will typically (but not necessarily) be a sequence that converges to zero.
COROLLARY 3.4. Let B be a subset of a normed vector space (V,∥·∥) and let α be an interior point of B. Suppose the sets Bn,n ≥ 1, are given by the open balls B(α,ζn) = {β ∈ V : ∥β − α∥ < ζn} for some sequence of real numbers ζn > 0 and suppose Bn ⊆ B holds. Suppose further that the maps γ [map ] Pn,α+γζn (defined on G = {γ ∈ V : ∥γ∥ < 1}) are asymptotically uniformly equicontinuous on G, i.e., satisfy

(i) If δ* = lim infn→∞ ω(φn,Bn) > 0 holds, then

where the infimum in (27) extends over all estimators

for φn(β).
6Suppose the assumptions of Corollary 3.4 are satisfied with ζn = ρξn, ρ > 0. For 0 < ρ′ ≤ ρ consider the sets Bn(ρ′) = B(α,ρ′ξn) ⊆ Bn(ρ) = Bn. If now not only δ* = δ*(ρ) > 0 but also δ*(ρ′) = lim infn→∞ ω(φn,Bn(ρ′)) > 0 holds for all 0 < ρ′ ≤ ρ, we may apply Lemma 3.2 to the sequence Bn(ρ′). Observe that Γ(ρ′) = lim supn→∞ sup(β(1),β(2))∈Bn(ρ′)×Bn(ρ′)∥Pn,β(1) − Pn,β(2)∥TV goes to zero for ρ′ → 0 in view of the asymptotic uniform equicontinuity assumption in Corollary 3.4. Because Bn(ρ′) ⊆ Bn(ρ) = Bn, the lower bound (27) immediately follows. However, the assumption in Corollary 3.4(i) that δ* = δ*(ρ) > 0 does not in general imply δ*(ρ′) > 0 for all ρ′, 0 < ρ′ ≤ ρ. (Just imagine a situation where the oscillation of φn occurs near the boundary of Bn(ρ) and φn is “flat” inside of Bn(ρ/2), say.) Corollary 3.4(i) now shows that the condition δ*(ρ′) > 0 for all ρ′, 0 < ρ′ ≤ ρ, is in fact unnecessary for (27) to hold. This comes in handy in applications where δ*(ρ′) can be zero for some ρ′ < ρ or where we can only establish the existence of a ρ such that δ*(ρ) is positive but where we do not have information on δ*(ρ′) for arbitrarily small ρ′; cf. the proof of (14).
(ii) Suppose there exists a δ*, 0 < δ* ≤ ∞, such that for every ε > 0 there exist βn,1(ε) and βn,2(ε) in Bn satisfying

and

Then

holds for δ < δ* /2, where the infimum in (30) extends over all estimators

for φn(β). (If one of βn,i(ε) can always be chosen equal to α, then the asymptotic uniform equicontinuity condition can be weakened to asymptotic equicontinuity at γ = 0.)
Finite-sample versions of Corollaries 3.3 and 3.4 are discussed in Remark B.4 in Appendix B. The somewhat abstract conditions imposed on the statistical experiment in the preceding results are satisfied in a wide variety of situations. For example, if B is an open subset of euclidean space, the asymptotic uniform equicontinuity condition in Corollary 3.4 can be shown to be satisfied if the experiment satisfies a local asymptotic normality (LAN) condition (and the radii ζn of the balls B(α,ζn) are essentially the reciprocal of the rate appearing in the definition of LAN). Furthermore, under the LAN condition and if Bn = B(α,ζn), the contiguity requirement in Lemma 3.1 is satisfied, and the l.h.s. of (24) can be evaluated explicitly.
In the important special case where the sets Bn are (typically shrinking) balls with a common center, also simple sufficient conditions for the assumptions in Lemma 3.1, Lemma 3.2, and Corollary 3.4 regarding the oscillation of the estimands φn can be given.
LEMMA 3.5. Let B be a subset of a normed vector space (V,∥·∥) and let α be an interior point of B. Suppose the sets Bn, n ≥ 1, are given by the open balls B(α,ζn) = {β ∈ V : ∥β − α∥ < ζn} for some sequence of real numbers ζn > 0 and suppose Bn ⊆ B holds. Let G denote the set {γ ∈ V : ∥γ∥ < 1}. Assume that there is a nonempty subset G0 of G and a function φ∞,α : G0 → M such that the functions γ [map ] φn(α + γζn) converge to φ∞,α(γ) for every γ ∈ G0 and n → ∞.
(i) If φ∞,α is nonconstant on G0, then δ* = lim infn→∞ ω(φn,Bn) is positive. More precisely, δ* ≥ ω(φ∞,α,G0) holds.
(ii) Suppose there exists a δ* > 0 such that for every ε > 0 one can find elements γ1(ε), γ2(ε) in G0 satisfying ∥γ1(ε) − γ2(ε)∥ < ε and d(φ∞,α(γ1(ε)),φ∞,α(γ2(ε))) ≥ δ*. Then the conditions on φn in Corollary 3.4(ii) are satisfied.
(iii) If φ∞,α is discontinuous at some γ0 ∈ G0, then the conditions on φn in Corollary 3.4(ii) are satisfied (for every 0 < δ* < η∞, where η∞ = inf{ω(φ∞,α,U) : γ0 ∈ U ⊆ G0, U relatively open in G0} is positive).
(iv) If φ∞,α is constant on G0 = G and if φn(α + γζn) converges to φ∞,α(γ) uniformly in γ ∈ G0 = G, then δ* = lim infn→∞ ω(φn,Bn) equals zero.
The choice of the set G0 in Lemma 3.5 will depend on the particular situation in which the lemma is being applied. Often one will choose G0 = G (if this is feasible), or one will choose G0 as the largest subset of G on which the maps γ [map ] φn(α + γζn) have a limit. But sometimes other choices are convenient; cf. the proof of Theorem 2.2 or 2.3.
Remark 3.1.
(i) The lower bound of ½ in (26), (27), and (30) cannot be improved in general.
(ii)It is easy to see that the condition in Corollary 3.4(ii) is equivalent to the condition that there exist βn,1 and βn,2 in Bn such that lim supn→∞∥βn,1 − βn,2∥/ζn = 0 and lim infn→∞ d(φn(βn,1),φn(βn,2)) > 0 hold.
(iii) The results in this section concern the performance measures

, which can be viewed as the risk corresponding to the loss function 1(|x| > δ). Quite similar results can also be obtained for a wide variety of other risk functions.
(iv) In case the sets Bn are shrinking balls with a common center and the estimand φn does not depend on n, i.e., φn ≡ φ, the cause for a positive lower bound on the performance measure for estimation is discontinuity of φ. The situation is more complex in case the estimand depends on n. Examples can be given where each φn is continuous, but a lower bound such as (25) holds. Conversely, estimation problems can be constructed such that φn(β) is discontinuous (and even converges to a discontinuous limit) but where a uniformly consistent estimator for φn(β) exists. Lemma 3.5 shows that what matters is not so much continuity properties of φn(β) or of its limit but properties of the limit φ∞,α obtained after rescaling the parameter.
(v) The results in this section are also useful for obtaining bounds on convergence rates of estimators: Suppose ψn(β) is to be estimated, with

denoting corresponding estimators. Setting φn(β) = anψn(β) and

for a sequence an, the results in this section can be used to show that no estimator

for ψn(β) can converge faster than an−1 in a minimax sense.
7We assume implicitly here that there is an appropriate notion of multiplication by scalars defined on M (e.g., M is a vector space). Alternatively, one can work with

instead of φn and

but use the sample-size-dependent metric dn(·,·) = an d(·,·) and appeal to Remark 3.1(vi). Of course, if M is a normed vector space with d as the induced metric, then both approaches coincide.
(vi) All results in this section with the exception of Lemma 3.5 continue to hold if (M,d) is allowed to depend on n and/or to be a pseudometric space. (Lemma 3.5(ii)–(iv) continue to hold if (M,d) is a pseudometric space but does not depend on n.)
The next result shows that Lemmas 3.1 and 3.2 (and hence all results in this paper) also apply to randomized estimators. To this end let

where

is a measurable space for every n ≥ 1. The randomization mechanism is described by a Markov kernel Kn defined on

. For each β ∈ B define Pn,β* via

A randomized estimator for φn(β) is then a function

that is measurable w.r.t.

and the Borel σ-field on M.
LEMMA 3.6.
(i) For any αn ∈ B, βn ∈ B, contiguity of the sequence Pn,βn w.r.t. Pn,αn implies contiguity of Pn,βn* w.r.t. Pn,αn*.
(ii) ∥Pn,α* − Pn,β*∥TV = ∥Pn,α − Pn,β∥TV for any α ∈ B, β ∈ B, and n ≥ 1.
In some applications (cf. Leeb and Pötscher, 2003), it is necessary to transfer the results of this section from a given statistical experiment to one that is obtained by conditioning. Results pertaining to this case are given in Appendix C.
LEMMA A.1. Consider the linear model Yi = Xiθ + ui for i ≥ 1, where Xi is a nonstochastic l × k regressor matrix (l ≥ 1,k ≥ 1),θ is an unknown k × 1 parameter vector, and the errors ui are i.i.d. normal with mean zero and covariance matrix Il, the l × l identity matrix. For

, let Pn,θ denote the distribution of the sample (Y1′,…,Yn′)′. Then
(i)

, where Φ is the standard normal distribution function.
(ii) Pn,ϑn is contiguous w.r.t. Pn,θn if θn − ϑn = O(n−1/2) and

is bounded.
Proof. (i) Because Pn,θ and Pn,ϑ are mutually absolutely continuous we can write the total variation distance as

Set

and assume first that A > 0. The log-likelihood ratio log(dPn,θ /dPn,ϑ) is then distributed as N(A/2,A) under Pn,θ and as N(−A/2,A) under Pn,ϑ as is easily seen. Elementary calculations then show that Pn,θ(log(dPn,θ /dPn,ϑ) > 0) = 1 − Φ(−A1/2/2) and Pn,ϑ(log(dPn,θ /dPn,ϑ) > 0) = 1 − Φ(A1/2/2). The result then follows for A > 0. If A = 0, clearly Xiθ = Xiϑ for i = 1,…,n holds, implying Pn,θ = Pn,ϑ. Because Φ(0) = ½, the result again follows.
(ii) Because

is bounded, any subsequence contains a further subsequence such that along this subsequence

converge to finite limits. By Le Cam's first lemma (cf. van der Vaart, 1998, Lem. 6.4) it thus suffices to show that dPn,θn /dPn,ϑn converges in distribution under Pn,ϑn to a random variable that is almost surely positive, provided that

. The same calculations as in the proof of part (i) show that log(dPn,θn /dPn,ϑn) is distributed as N(−An /2,An) under Pn,ϑn, where

. Here we use the convention that N(−An /2,An) denotes point mass at zero if An = 0. Hence, log(dPn,θn /dPn,ϑn) converges in distribution under Pn,ϑn to Z ∼ N(−A/2,A), where A = χ′Cχ. It follows from the continuous mapping theorem that dPn,θn /dPn,ϑn converges in distribution under Pn,ϑn to exp(Z), which is always positive. █
Proof of Theorem 2.1. We apply the results of Section 3 with

, β = θ, M the real line,

. We first compute the oscillation of

over Bn. It is easy to see that the risk is a strictly increasing and continuous function of θ′θ. Hence, the oscillation is given by

, which equals 2Δ(ρ), where Δ was defined prior to Theorem 2.1. Note that Δ(ρ) is positive. Applying Lemma A.1(ii) with Xi = Ik shows that Pn,θn is contiguous w.r.t. Pn,0 for every sequence θn ∈ Bn. Lemma 3.1(i) then gives (3). From Lemma A.1(i) we obtain

because

. Lemma 3.2 together with Remark B.2 now implies that the l.h.s. of (4) is not less than 1 − Φ(ρ) for every 0 < ρ < ∞ satisfying δ < Δ(ρ), or equivalently Δ−1(δ) < ρ. Because the l.h.s. of (4) is nonincreasing and the lower bound 1 − Φ(ρ) is increasing to 1 − Φ(Δ−1(δ)) when ρ decreases to Δ−1(δ), the result (4) follows. The last claim follows immediately from the first inequality in (4) observing that 1 − Φ(Δ−1(δ)) → ½ for δ → 0. █
LEMMA A.2. Let F be a c.d.f. on

, k > 1, and let U be an open subset of

. Then F is continuous on U if and only if for every t = (t1,…,tk)′ ∈ U and every i, 1 ≤ i ≤ k, the map ui [map ] F(t1,…,ti−1,ui,ti+1,…,tk) is continuous at ui = ti.
Proof. One direction is trivial. To prove the other one, fix t ∈ U and let

denote a sequence converging to t. For sufficiently small εi > 0 we have Πi=1k[ti − εi, ti + εi] ⊆ U and

for n ≥ N(ε1,…,εk). Hence also lim supn F(t(n)) and lim infn F(t(n)) are sandwiched between these bounds. Because (t1 − ε1,…,tk − εk) ∈ U, it follows that F(t1 − ε1,…,tk−1 − εk−1,tk − εk) converges to F(t1 − ε1,…,tk−1 − εk−1,tk) for εk → 0. Similarly, F(t1 + ε1,…,tk−1 + εk−1,tk + εk) converges to F(t1 + ε1,…,tk−1 + εk−1,tk) for εk → 0. This shows that lim supn F(t(n)) and lim infn F(t(n)) are both sandwiched between F(t1 − ε1,…,tk−1 − εk−1,tk) and F(t1 + ε1,…,tk−1 + εk−1,tk). Observing that the arguments of the latter two functions are elements of U, we may repeat the argument until we arrive at the conclusion that F(t) ≤ lim infn F(t(n)) ≤ lim supn F(t(n)) ≤ F(t). █
LEMMA A.3. Let θ, ν, and t be elements of

and let I(θ) denote the set {i : θi = 0}. Then the c.d.f. F∞,θ,ν given by (6) is continuous at t provided that ti ≠ − νi holds for all i ∈ I(θ). In particular, F∞,θ,ν is continuous on all of

if θ has only nonzero components; furthermore, F∞,θ,ν is continuous at t for all θ if ti ≠ −νi holds for all i, 1 ≤ i ≤ k.
Proof. We only need to prove the first claim. The case k = 1 and also the case k > 1 and I(θ) = Ø follow immediately from (8)–(10) and the attending discussion. Hence assume k > 1 and I(θ) ≠ Ø in the sequel. Choose an open neighborhood U of t such that any s ∈ U also satisfies si ≠ −νi for i ∈ I(θ). Assume now that F∞,θ,ν is not continuous at t. Lemma A.2 then implies the existence of an element s* ∈ U and of an index m, 1 ≤ m ≤ k, such that the function taking sm into F∞,θ,ν(s1*,…,sm−1*,sm,sm+1*,…,sk*) is not continuous at sm = sm*. Because this function is cadlag, it follows that it has a jump of positive height at sm = sm*. Hence, the event A, that Tm equals sm*, has positive probability, where Tm denotes the mth coordinate of

. We can now find a subset J ⊆ I(θ), J possibly empty, such that the event B = B(J) defined as the intersection of A with the event {Ti = −νi for i ∈ J and Ti ≠ −νi for i ∈ I(θ)[setmn ]J} has positive probability. By possibly reducing B further, we can even achieve that the sign of Ti + νi is constant over B for all i ∈ I(θ)[setmn ]J, without losing the property that B has positive probability. Let u[J] denote the vector obtained from u by deleting the coordinates for i ∈ J. Note that m ∉ J because sm* ≠ −νm by construction and because sm* equals Tm on the event B. Let Vθ,ν0(u[J]) denote the function resulting from Vθ,ν(u) after replacing ui with −νi for i ∈ J. Observe that on the event B the function Vθ,ν0(u[J]) is a differentiable function in a neighborhood of its argmin, the coordinates of which coincide with the coordinates of

for i ∉ J by construction. Hence, the first derivative of Vθ,νo(u[J]) must be zero at its argmin. This leads to a system of equations of the form

for i ∉ J, where Wi is the ith coordinate of the random vector W appearing in (7) and ci is a constant on B depending only on Q, λ, ν, and θ. Now on B we have m ∉ J and Tm = sm*, a fixed constant, implying that the distribution of (Tj : j ∉ J) puts positive mass on a linear space of dimension k − card(J) − 1. Together with the preceding system of equations, this contradicts the fact that the distribution of (Wi : i ∉ J) is a nonsingular multivariate normal of dimension k − card(J). █
LEMMA A.4. Suppose

is given and γ ∈ G satisfies γi ≠ 0 for all i ∈ I(θ), where

and I(θ) = {i : θi = 0}. Then for any

we have

where

is given by χi = θi for i ∉ I(θ) and χi = γi for i ∈ I(θ) and sign(χ) denotes the vector with ith coordinate equal to sign(χi).
Proof. From (6) and (7) one sees that F∞,θ,ργ(t) can equivalently be expressed as

, where

For ρ → ∞ the random function Vθ,ργ*(u) converges for every

and every value of W to

which is nothing else than Vχ,0(u). In view of Geyer (1996), it follows that F∞,θ,ργ([bull ]) converges weakly to the c.d.f. of

for ρ → ∞, which is given by ΦQ−1([bull ] + λQ−1 sign(χ)/2). Because any

is a continuity point of the latter distribution, the lemma follows. █
Proof of Theorem 2.2. We again apply the results of Section 3 and use the following identifications:

is the real line,

, where ρ > 0 will be chosen later, and φ∞,0(γ) = F∞,0,ργ(t) with γ ∈ G, the open unit ball in

. To obtain information on the oscillation of Fn,θ(t) over Bn, we wish to apply Lemma 3.5(i) with α = 0, ζn = ρn−1/2, and G0 = {e/(2k1/2) : e ∈ {−1,1}k}. Observe that limn→∞ Fn,ργn−1/2(t) = F∞,0,ργ(t) for all γ ∈ G0 and all ρ > (2k1/2)max{|ti| : 1 ≤ i ≤ k}. This follows from the weak convergence of the finite-sample c.d.f. and the fact that F∞,0,ργ is continuous at t by Lemma A.3 (applied with θ = 0) whenever ρ satisfies ±ρ/(2k1/2) ≠ ti for all i. Hence the general assumptions of Lemma 3.5 are satisfied for any such choice of ρ. The oscillation of F∞,0,ργ(t) over G0 now satisfies

by Lemma A.4. Lemma 3.5(i) now implies that

holds. This further implies that for every δ < Δ(t) we can find a ρ large enough (depending on t, δ, Q, and λ), such that δ < lim infn→∞ ω(Fn,θ(t),Bn)/2 holds and that the r.h.s. is positive (because Δ(t) is so by assumption). Now fix this δ and ρ (and hence Bn). Because Lemma A.1(ii) with l = 1 implies that Pn,θn is contiguous w.r.t. Pn,0 for any sequence θn ∈ Bn, we may apply Lemma 3.1(i) to obtain (12). From Lemma A.1(i) we also obtain

Lemma 3.2 now implies (13). Finally, (A.1) shows that we can find a ρ large enough such that lim infn→∞ ω(Fn,θ(t),Bn) is positive. Lemma A.1(i) shows that the asymptotic uniform equicontinuity condition of Corollary 3.4 is satisfied for Bn. Corollary 3.4(i) now implies (14). █
Proof of Theorem 2.3. We again apply the results of Section 3 using the same identifications as in the proof of Theorem 2.2, except that now ρ satisfies ρ > ∥t∥. We now wish to apply Lemma 3.5(ii) with α = 0, ζn = ρn−1/2, and G0 = G[setmn ]{−t/ρ}. Observe that limn→∞ Fn,ργn−1/2(t) = F∞,0,ργ(t) for all γ ∈ G0 by weak convergence and the fact that F∞,0,ργ is continuous at t as long as t ≠ −ργ; cf. (9)–(11). This shows that φn(α + γζn) = Fn,ργn−1/2(t) converges to φ∞,0(γ) = F∞,0,ργ(t) for all γ ∈ G0. Now (9)–(11) furthermore show that F∞,0,ργ(t) equals ΦQ−1(t + λQ−1ι/2) for γ > −t/ρ and equals ΦQ−1(t − λQ−1ι/2) for γ < −t/ρ, where the relation < is to be interpreted coordinatewise. Define δ* = ΦQ−1(t + λQ−1ι/2) − ΦQ−1(t − λQ−1ι/2) and note that δ* is positive. Because −t/ρ ∈ G, which is open, it now follows that for every ε > 0 we can find γi(ε) ∈ G0, i = 1,2, such that |γ1(ε) − γ2(ε)| < ε and |φ∞,0(γ1(ε)) − φ∞,0(γ2(ε))| ≥ δ* hold; hence the assumptions of Lemma 3.5(ii) are satisfied. Applying Corollary 3.4(ii) and observing that Lemma A.1(i) implies the asymptotic uniform equicontinuity condition in Corollary 3.4 completes the proof of (15). That (12) holds for δ < Δ(t) and ρ > ∥t∥ follows from Lemma 3.1(i) and Lemma 3.5(i) because ω(φ∞,0,G0) ≥ δ* > 0 holds for ρ > ∥t∥. █
Proof of Theorem 2.4. We again apply the results of Section 3 and use the identifications

the real line,

. We first prove (17). For given ρ > |t| and n ≥ 1, the sets Cn(ε) = {−n−1/2t,−n−1/2(t + ε)} are subsets of Bn = {θ : |θ| < ρn−1/2} provided, e.g., 0 < ε < (ρ − |t|)/2 holds. From the formula for Gn,θ given in Section 2.3 we obtain that the oscillation satisfies

whenever ε also satisfies ε < cn. Furthermore, Lemma A.1 implies that the total variation distance between the measures Pn,θ, θ ∈ Cn(ε), is 2Φ(ε/2) − 1. Applying the finite-sample version of Lemma 3.2 given in Remark B.2 in Appendix B with A = {n} for fixed n gives

for all δ < |Φ(cn + t) − Φ(−cn + t + ε)|/2 and for all 0 < ε < min{cn,(ρ − |t|)/2}. Observing that Cn(ε) ⊆ Bn holds and letting ε go to zero establishes (17), from which we immediately obtain (18) by letting n go to infinity.
To prove (16), we apply Lemma 3.1 with

. The contiguity condition in that lemma follows immediately from Lemma A.1(ii). Choose a sequence εn satisfying 0 < εn < min{cn,(ρ − |t|)/2}. Then using (A.2) we obtain

which completes the proof of (16). █
Proof of Lemma 3.1. (i) By definition of δ*, we can find sequences βn(1) ∈ Bn and βn(2) ∈ Bn such that lim infn→∞ d(φn(βn(1)),φn(βn(2))) ≥ δ*. Fix a δ < δ*/2. Because

it follows for any δ′ satisfying δ < δ′ < δ*/2 that at least one of the terms on the r.h.s. of (B.1) exceeds δ′ for sufficiently large n. Thus we can find a sequence βn ∈ Bn (in fact βn ∈ {βn(1),βn(2)}) such that lim infn→∞ d(φn(βn),φn(α)) ≥ δ′. For any δ′′ satisfying δ < δ′′ < δ′ we have

By construction, the l.h.s. of (B.2) converges to one. By contiguity, by the assumption on

, and because δ′′ − δ > 0, the second term on the r.h.s. of (B.2) converges to zero. Hence, the first term on the r.h.s. of (B.2) converges to one, which completes the proof of (21). Assume now that (22) is not true. Then we can find a sequence of estimators

and a subsequence n(i) → ∞ such that

It follows that

along this subsequence. Observe that the statistical experiment corresponding to the subsequence n(i) and the estimators

satisfies the requirements of Lemma 3.1(i). Applying the already established result (21) to this experiment we conclude that

, which leads to a contradiction.
(ii) It suffices to show that

for every δ > 0 and every sequence βn ∈ Bn. Because d(φn(βn),φn(α)) ≤ ω(φn,Bn) holds, this follows from the assumption on

, from contiguity, and from

Remark B.1 (Extensions of Lemma 3.1). (i) If lim supn→∞ ω(φn,Bn) > 0 but lim infn→∞ ω(φn,Bn) = 0 holds, applying Lemma 3.1 to appropriate subsequences shows that (21) and (22) hold for δ < lim supn→∞ ω(φn,Bn)/2 provided the limit inferior in (21) and (22) is replaced by a limit superior; similarly, (23) holds for every δ > 0 provided the limit superior is replaced by a limit inferior. In particular, it follows that the condition lim supn→∞ ω(φn,Bn) = 0 is not only sufficient but also necessary for (23) to hold for every δ > 0. (ii) Inspection of the proof shows that Lemma 3.1 continues to hold if α is replaced by αn ∈ Bn at every occurrence in the formulation of the lemma.
Proof of Lemma 3.2. Again we can find sequences βn(1) ∈ Bn and βn(2) ∈ Bn such that lim infn→∞ d(φn(βn(1)),φn(βn(2))) ≥ δ*. For every given δ < δ*/2 and for every estimator

we then have
for an appropriate choice βn ∈ {βn(1),βn(2)} ⊆ Bn, the choice possibly depending on

. Now for every ε > 0 there exists n0 = n0(δ,ε) such that for n ≥ n0 the leftmost side of (B.3) equals one and ∥Pn,βn(1) − Pn,βn(2)∥TV < Γ + ε. Hence,

holds for n ≥ n0 and every estimator

. It follows that

holds for n ≥ n0, which implies (25). █
Remark B.2 (Finite-sample version of Lemma 3.2). Lemma 3.2 is at its core actually a finite-sample result. Let A be a nonempty subset of

. (Of primary interest is the case

or the case where A contains only one element.) If the limit superior in (24) is replaced by the supremum over A and if the limit inferior in the definition of δ* is replaced by the infimum over A, then (25) holds with the limit inferior replaced by the infimum over A. (This follows either from inspection of the proof of the lemma or from applying the lemma for every m ∈ A to φn′ and {Pn,β′ : β ∈ Bn′} given by φn′ = φm, Pn,β′ = Pm,β, and Bn′ = Bm for all n ≥ 1.)
LEMMA B.1. Let Bn, n ≥ 1, be a sequence of (nonempty) subsets of B. For every k ≥ 1, n ≥ 1, let Cn,k be a (nonempty) subset of Bn. Define

and assume that Γk < 1 holds for every k. Suppose δk* = lim infn→∞ ω(φn,Cn,k) is positive for every k. Then

holds. If, additionally, δ** = infk δk* is positive, then even

holds for every δ < δ**/2. In particular, if infk Γk = 0, then the lower bound in (B.5) and (B.6) reduces to ½.
Proof. Applying Lemma 3.2 to Cn,k and noting that Cn,k ⊆ Bn we obtain

for every δ < δk*/2 and for every k ≥ 1. Inequality (B.6) is then an immediate consequence, and (B.5) follows because the l.h.s. of the preceding inequality is nonincreasing in δ. █
Remark B.3 (Finite-sample version of Lemma B.1). Let A be a nonempty subset of

. If the limit superior in (B.4) is replaced by the supremum over A and if the limit inferior in the definition of δk* is replaced by the infimum over A, then (B.5) and (B.6) hold with the limit inferior replaced by the infimum over A.
Proof of Corollary 3.3. Because α is interior to Bn, we may without loss of generality set Bn = {β ∈ B : π(α,β) < ζn} for sufficiently small ζn that are positive and decrease to zero. By further reducing ζn if necessary, we may—in view of the asymptotic continuity of the maps β [map ] Pn,β at α and the triangle inequality—conclude that (24) holds with Γ = 0. Because ω(φ,Bn) ≥ η clearly holds, δ* defined in Lemma 3.2 is not less than η, which is positive as a result of discontinuity of φ at α. An application of Lemma 3.2 then completes the proof. █
Proof of Corollary 3.4. (i) We first construct, for every k ≥ 1, sequences βn,1(k) and βn,2(k) in Bn satisfying

for every n ≥ 1 and

By definition of δ*, we can obviously find βn,1(1) and βn,2(1) in Bn such that (B.8) holds for k = 1. The triangle inequality applied to βn,1(1),βn,2(1), and α shows that also (B.7) is satisfied for k = 1. For k > 1 define χn(k)(i) = βn,1(1) + (i/k)(βn,2(1) − βn,1(1)), 0 ≤ i ≤ k, and observe that χn(k)(i) ∈ Bn by convexity of Bn. Because

there exists an index in, 0 ≤ in < k, such that

Define βn,1(k) = χn(k)(in) and βn,2(k) = χn(k)(in + 1). Relation (B.8) immediately follows, and (B.7) follows because ∥βn,1(k) − βn,2(k)∥ ≤ ∥βn,1(1) − βn,2(1)∥/k holds by construction.
Define the sets Cn,k = {βn,1(k),βn,2(k)} and apply Lemma B.1. Clearly, δk* = lim infn→∞ ω(φn,Cn,k) is not less than δ*/k and hence is positive for every k ≥ 1. Furthermore, Γk reduces to lim supn→∞∥Pn,βn,1(k) − Pn,βn,2(k)∥TV, which converges to zero for k → ∞ in view of (B.7) and the asymptotic uniform equicontinuity assumption. Hence Γk < 1 holds at least for k ≥ k0. The result now follows from (B.5). The final claim follows from (B.6) upon observing that now δ** = δk* = ∞.
(ii) Define Cn,k = {βn,1(k−1),βn,2(k−1)} and apply Lemma B.1. Observe that δk* ≥ δ* > 0, and hence δ** ≥ δ*, holds in view of (29). Furthermore, Γk converges to zero for k → ∞ in view of (28) and the asymptotic uniform equicontinuity assumption. The result then follows from (B.6). █
Remark B.4 (Finite-sample versions of Corollaries 3.3 and 3.4). Let A be a nonempty subset of

. (Of primary interest is the case

or the case where A contains only one element.)
(i) Suppose the asymptotic continuity condition in Corollary 3.3 is replaced by continuity of the maps β [map ] Pn,β at α for every n ∈ A. Then (26) continues to hold provided the limit inferior is replaced by the infimum over n ∈ A. (This follows from Lemma B.1 together with Remark B.3 upon observing that the assumed continuity property of β [map ] Pn,β allows one to choose open balls Cn,k ⊆ Bn centered at α such that Γk → 0 for k → ∞, and from the fact that ω(φ,Cn,k) ≥ η > 0 holds for n ∈ A and all k ≥ 1.)
(ii) Suppose the asymptotic uniform equicontinuity condition in Corollary 3.4 is replaced by the condition

Then (i) and (ii) of that corollary continue to hold if at every occurrence a limit inferior (superior) is replaced by an infimum (supremum) over n ∈ A. The proof is similar to the proof of Corollary 3.4 using Remark B.3 instead of Lemma B.1 (and replacing δ* on the r.h.s. of (B.8) by some δ+, 0 < δ+ < δ*).
Proof of Lemma 3.5. (i) For every ω′ < ω(φ∞,α,G0) we can find γ1, γ2 in G0 such that d(φ∞,α(γ1),φ∞,α(γ2)) > ω′. From pointwise convergence it follows that δ* ≥ ω′ and hence δ* ≥ ω(φ∞,α,G0) because ω′ has been chosen arbitrarily, subject to ω′ < ω(φ∞,α,G0). The oscillation ω(φ∞,α,G0) is positive, because φ∞,α is nonconstant on G0.
(ii) Define βn,i(ε) = α + γi(ε)ζn. Then (28) and (29) are obviously satisfied.
(iii) Discontinuity implies that η∞ is positive. Now, for every 0 < δ* < η∞ we can find γ1(ε), γ2(ε) in G0 (near γ0) satisfying the assumptions of the already established part (ii) of the lemma.
(iv) Follows trivially from uniform convergence. █
Proof of Lemma 3.6. (i) Assume Pn,αn*(Fn*) → 0. This can be rewritten as En,αn(fn) → 0, where fn is given by fn(ω) = ∫1Fn*(ω,ξ)Kn(ω,dξ) and En,αn denotes expectation w.r.t. Pn,αn. Clearly, 0 ≤ fn ≤ 1 holds. For every ε > 0 we have En,αn(fn) ≥ εPn,αn(fn ≥ ε), implying Pn,αn(fn ≥ ε) → 0. By contiguity also Pn,βn(fn ≥ ε) → 0. Because of 0 ≤ En,βn(fn) ≤ ε + Pn,βn(fn ≥ ε), we obtain lim supn→∞ En,βn(fn) ≤ ε. But this proves Pn,βn*(Fn*) = En,βn(fn) → 0.
(ii) By specializing to the events F × Ξn with

, one immediately sees that the l.h.s. in (ii) is not less than the r.h.s. The reverse inequality is proved, e.g., in Pötscher (2002), Remark 2.1. █
In this Appendix we show how the results in Section 3 can be easily transferred from a given statistical experiment to a derived experiment obtained by conditioning. We start with the following lemma.
LEMMA C.1.
(i) Let Q and R be probability measures defined on some measurable space

and let

satisfy Q(E) > 0 and R(E) > 0. Then ∥Q(·|E) − R(·|E)∥TV ≤ 2∥Q − R∥TV /max(Q(E),R(E)).
(ii) For n ≥ 1, let Qn and Rn be probability measures defined on measurable spaces

and let

satisfy Qn(En) > 0 and Rn(En) > 0 for each n ≥ 1. Suppose lim infn→∞ Rn(En) > 0 holds. If Rn is contiguous w.r.t. Qn, then Rn(·|En) is contiguous w.r.t. Qn(·|En).
Proof. (i) For arbitrary

we have |Q(A|E) − R(A|E)| = |R(E)Q(A ∩ E) − Q(E)Q(A ∩ E) + Q(E)Q(A ∩ E) − Q(E)R(A ∩ E)|/(Q(E)R(E)) ≤ |Q(E) − R(E)|Q(A ∩ E)/(Q(E)R(E)) + |Q(A ∩ E) − R(A ∩ E)|/R(E) ≤ 2∥Q − R∥TV /R(E). Reversing the rôles of Q and R we obtain |Q(A|E) − R(A|E)| ≤ 2∥Q − R∥TV /Q(E).
(ii) If Qn(Fn|En) → 0 then Qn(Fn ∩ En) → 0. Contiguity gives Rn(Fn ∩ En) → 0. Because lim infn→∞ Rn(En) > 0 holds, Rn(Fn|En) → 0 follows. █
For the rest of this Appendix we use the notation of Section 3. In particular, let Bn, n ≥ 1, denote a sequence of (nonempty) subsets of B and let

satisfy Pn,β(En) > 0 for every β ∈ Bn and n ≥ 1. The first corollary follows immediately from Lemma C.1.
COROLLARY C.2. Suppose

holds.
(i) If the sequence Pn,βn is contiguous w.r.t. Pn,αn for sequences αn ∈ Bn and βn ∈ Bn, then Pn,βn(·|En) is contiguous w.r.t. Pn,αn(·|En).
(ii) If {Pn,β : β ∈ Bn} satisfies (24), then {Pn,β(·|En) : β ∈ Bn} satisfies (24) with Γ replaced by 2Γ/M.
A simple sufficient condition for (C.1) is that lim infn→∞ Pn,αn(En) > 0 for some sequence αn ∈ Bn and that Pn,αn is contiguous w.r.t. Pn,βn for all sequences βn ∈ Bn.
COROLLARY C.3. Let αn ∈ Bn, n ≥ 1, be a given sequence and assume that m = lim infn→∞ Pn,αn(En) > 0 holds. If {Pn,β : β ∈ Bn} satisfies (24), then {Pn,β(·|En) : β ∈ Bn} satisfies (24) with Γ replaced by 4Γ/m.
Proof. Applying the triangle inequality and Lemma C.1 we obtain for β, γ ∈ Bn

Taking the supremum over Bn × Bn followed by the limsup leads to the bound 4Γ/m. █
Remark C.1. The asymptotic continuity condition in Corollary 3.3 immediately carries over from the measures Pn,β to the conditional measures Pn,β(·|En) provided lim infn→∞ Pn,α(En) > 0 holds. The same is true for the asymptotic uniform equicontinuity condition in Corollary 3.4 provided condition (C.1) is satisfied.