Applying Our Theory to Latinos

Generally speaking, ethnic and racial minorities have at least two group identities of possible relevance to their voting behavior: their minority subgroup identity and a superordinate national identity (c.f. Transue Reference Transue2007). In applying our theory to Latino citizens, we focus on pan-ethnicity (Latino or Hispanic) as the subgroup identity and nationality (American) as the superordinate group identity.Footnote ⁴ Prior research shows that pan-ethnic Latino identity is a politicized group construct at the center of recent debates over immigration policy, the electoral fortunes of the two major parties, and recent patterns of Latino political preferences and voting behavior (Barreto and Segura Reference Barreto and Segura2014; Hersh and Schaffner Reference Hersh and Schaffner2013; Hopkins Reference Hopkins2010; Sanchez Reference Sanchez2006a; Weiner Reference Weiner2013). Existing scholarship suggests that the current climate in American politics has raised the political salience of Latino pan-ethnic identity through a confluence of group appeals and attacks on the Latino community over the issue of immigration (Barreto and Segura Reference Barreto and Segura2014), helping make explicit the psychological and tangible benefits of Latinos turning out in support of their group's interests (Barreto Reference Barreto2007; Michelson and García Bedolla Reference Michelson and Bedolla2014). Thus, we argue that the current political context is one in which Latino pan-ethnic identity is highly politicized.

At the same time, previous studies have documented substantial variation in the strength of individual Latino attachments to Latino and American identities (Golash-Boza Reference Golash-Boza2006; Pulido and Pastor Reference Pulido and Pastor2013; Sanchez and Masuoka Reference Sanchez and Masuoka2010; Schildkraut Reference Schildkraut2011). For example, in a recent survey (Fraga et al. Reference Fraga, Garcia, Hero, Jones-Correa, Martinez-Ebers and Segura2006), 63% of Latinos identified strongly as Latino, 24% said they identified somewhat, and 10% identified weakly or not at all. On the same survey, 40% of Latinos said they identified strongly as American, 25% identified somewhat, and 31% identified weakly or not at all. As reviewed previously, studies have also shown that Latino identities vary across community characteristics (Maltby, Rocha, and Alvarado Reference Maltby, Rocha and Alvarado2015; Pulido and Pastor Reference Pulido and Pastor2013; Schildkraut Reference Schildkraut2011; Valenzuela Reference Valenzuela2011). Thus, we expect effects of GOTV identity appeals that cue either a Latino identity or an American identity to vary across both individuals and communities depending on the strength of those identities. Specifically, we posit the following hypotheses:

In sum, our theory and hypotheses suggest that the apparent weakness of previous results on ethnic and racial group targeting with GOTV appeals may be explained by the failure of these prior studies to make distinctions between those who are strongly and weakly identified group members. Taking this variation into account is both necessary and challenging because of variation across individuals and communities. In the next section we describe how we addressed this challenge using publicly available data on Latino voters and the communities in which they live.

Measuring Identity Strength and Turnout

How can we identify individuals and communities with strong group identities without relying on expensive additional survey data? Building on existing research documenting variation in the strength of racial and ethnic identification, we argue that socioeconomic status at the individual level and economic resources at the community level are effective proxies for the strength of Latinos’ ethnic and national identity attachments. For individuals and communities, respectively, lower status and fewer resources can proxy for strong ethnic attachments and weak national attachments. At the individual level, lower status Latinos tend to be less educated and less acculturated into mainstream society, and are often first-generation immigrants with limited English-language skills (Barreto and Pedraza Reference Barreto and Pedraza2009; Chong and Kim Reference Chong and Kim2006). As a result, they are less integrated into American politics, have less contact outside of their Latino community, and are more likely to hold strong ethnic attachments and less likely to develop strong American identities (Golash-Boza Reference Golash-Boza2006; Sanchez and Masuoka Reference Sanchez and Masuoka2010; Schildkraut Reference Schildkraut2011; Valenzuela Reference Valenzuela2011). At the community level, lower levels of economic resources often mean lower neighborhood quality, which leads to a sense of relative deprivation, alienation from the broader polity, and stronger ethnic and racial subgroup identities (Gay Reference Gay2004; Pulido and Pastor Reference Pulido and Pastor2013; Valenzuela Reference Valenzuela2011). In other words, low resource levels signal a set of experiences and processes that cultivate and sustain ethnic subgroup identities while simultaneously limiting the potential for mainstream acculturation and national identity adoption.

Conversely, high individual status and high levels of community resources are indicators of strong national identification. For high-status individuals, greater resources and acculturation pave the way for increased contact outside of the Latino community and an enhanced sense of societal integration and political efficacy, all of which make the adoption of a strong national identity more likely (Golash-Boza Reference Golash-Boza2006; Portes and MacLeod Reference Portes and MacLeod1996; Schildkraut Reference Schildkraut2011; Taylor et al. Reference Taylor, Lopez, Martínez and Velasco2012). Similarly, high-resource communities tend to promote feelings of well-being and inclusion that may foster identification with a broader American community.Footnote ⁵

However, the relationship between high status, resources, and ethnic identification is more complicated. First, processes that promote national identification among high-status individuals and communities do not necessarily undermine ethnic attachments, so we should not assume that strong national identities imply weak ethnic identities. Second, social group identification is not a zero-sum game. Individuals can and do hold multiple strong identities, often negotiating between them in response to different contexts and personal experiences (Ellemers, Spears, and Doosje Reference Ellemers, Spears and Doosje2002; García Bedolla Reference García Bedolla2005; Golash-Boza Reference Golash-Boza2006; Masuoka Reference Masuoka2006; Nagel Reference Nagel1994; Padilla Reference Padilla1985; Portes and MacLeod Reference Portes and MacLeod1996; Sanchez and Masuoka Reference Sanchez and Masuoka2010; Schildkraut Reference Schildkraut2011). Thus, the strength of ethnic identification among high-status individuals and in high-resource communities will depend on whether other factors are working to sustain or undermine that identity.

Prior research suggests that Latino population concentration is one such critical factor. Studies have shown that larger in-group populations increase the salience of group membership (Bledsoe et al. Reference Bledsoe, Welch, Sigelman and Combs1995; Brewer and Miller Reference Brewer, Miller, Miller and Brewer1984; Lau Reference Lau1989), foster a sense of group empowerment and political efficacy (Barreto, Segura, and Woods Reference Barreto, Segura and Woods2004; García Bedolla Reference García Bedolla2005), and promote stronger racial and ethnic identities and feelings of linked fate (Bledsoe et al. Reference Bledsoe, Welch, Sigelman and Combs1995; Gay Reference Gay2004; Lau Reference Lau1989; Pulido and Pastor Reference Pulido and Pastor2013; Valenzuela Reference Valenzuela2011). For Latinos specifically, larger Latino population proportions are likely to be correlated with more extensive co-ethnic social networks, reliance on Spanish-language communication and business transactions, and greater ethnic media exposure (both political and nonpolitical), which help create, reinforce, and politicize ethnic identity attachments. Thus, we expect Latinos in high-resource communities with large Latino populations to hold strong ethnic identities alongside strong national identities. In contrast, Latinos in high-resource communities with small Latino populations should hold weak ethnic identities.Footnote ⁶ We summarize our expectations about the link between status, resources, and the strength of ethnic and national identities among Latinos in Table 1.

TABLE 1.

Theoretical Expectations about Status and Latino Identities

If our hypotheses are correct, then we should see ethnic identity appeals increase turnout among low-status Latinos and in low-resource communities, and among high-status Latinos and in high-resource communities where Latinos represent a large share of the population. Conversely, we should see that national identity appeals are effective only among high-status Latinos and in high-resource communities.

To measure community-level resources, we used data on median household income from the 2000 U.S. Census.Footnote ⁷ To measure individual-level status, we used indicators of acculturation and political incorporation. Following previous research (Abrajano Reference Abrajano2010; Abrajano and Panagopoulos Reference Abrajano and Panagopoulos2011; Branton Reference Branton2007; DeFrancesco Soto and Merolla Reference DeFrancesco Soto, Merolla, Junn and Haynie2008), we defined low-acculturation (low-status) Latinos as foreign bornFootnote ⁸ and Spanish speaking, and high-acculturation (high-status) Latinos as U.S. born and English speaking. In California, nativity data are available in the voter file, allowing us to use nativity as our measure of acculturation. The Texas data file does not include information on nativity, so in our replication we instead used data collected during the experiment about the voter's preferred language.Footnote ⁹ We defined low political-incorporation Latinos as those registered to vote for less than five years, and high-incorporation Latinos as those registered to vote for five years or more. Our outcome measure was validated turnout among Latinos treated in our experiments, data that we purchased from election officials. By using readily available information as a proxy for status and resources, our research design makes a methodological and practical contribution to the experimental study of voter turnout.

Study Contexts

We tested our hypotheses using two placebo-controlled nonpartisan GOTV field experiments conducted on Latino-surname registered voters in Los Angeles County, California, and Hidalgo County, Texas. Within each county, we purposefully selected adjacent communities with super-majority Latino populations that varied significantly in median household incomes. This variation in community-level resources was crucial to testing our expectations about differences in responsiveness to ethnic and national identity appeals depending on the strength of these group identities (Hypotheses 1b and 2b). Moreover, by choosing adjacent communities within the same county we limited differences in culture, issues, and candidates featured in the elections that might have influenced Latino turnout. We conducted our first experiment in the 2010 California primary election and then replicated our design in the 2012 Texas primary election to confirm that our results were not the product of some idiosyncratic feature of California politics. We chose primary election contests because low-salience elections maximize the visibility and potential impact of our GOTV treatments.Footnote ¹⁰

In both California and Texas, we chose study contexts in which the Latino population was primarily of Mexican origin, a design feature we used to isolate the effects of differences in community resources. We decided to hold national-origin heterogeneity constant because it may weaken ethnic identification. Although direct evidence is lacking for Latinos, prior work on African Americans indicates weaker racial attachments in mixed neighborhoods, compared to in predominantly black neighborhoods (Bledsoe et al. Reference Bledsoe, Welch, Sigelman and Combs1995; Lau Reference Lau1989), suggesting that Latinos in more heterogeneous environments will exhibit less group cohesion than Latinos in more homogeneous environments. At minimum, group identification and intragroup relations are complicated by the significant presence of multiple Latino subgroups in a local community.Footnote ¹¹

In California, we conducted the experiment in East Los Angeles (low resources) and Montebello (high resources), immediately adjacent communities with super-majority Latino populations that vary significantly by median household income.Footnote ¹² The California primary in 2010 featured several Latinos running for office, but they were mostly unopposed candidates seeking reelection. One exception was John Noguez, who ran for county assessor in a field of 12 candidates; his eventual victory marked the first time a Latino had ever been elected to this post.

In Texas, we conducted the experiment in three communities: San Juan (low resources), Edinburg (medium resources), and McAllen (high resources).Footnote ¹³ As in California, these are super-majority Latino communities that are predominantly of Mexican origin with sizable foreign-born populations.Footnote ¹⁴ Much like in the 2010 California primary, several Latino candidates appeared on the ballot in Texas, but most for reelection or in uncontested races. One exception was the Republican primary for U.S. Senate, which featured David Dewhurst and Ted Cruz and was the subject of considerable media coverage. However, because most Latinos are Democrats (especially in Hidalgo County, which voted 70% for President Obama in 2012), this race was not of great relevance to the voters in our experiment. Table 2 shows descriptive statistics for all of our study contexts and the U.S. overall.

TABLE 2.

Select Characteristics of the U.S. Latino Population and Study Contexts

Sources: 2006–2010 American Community Survey and 2010 Census, factfinder2.census.gov.

One limitation of our choice of study contexts is that because they are all Latino-majority areas, we could not fully test whether the effects of ethnic identity appeals for high-status individuals and in high-resource communities are conditional on the share of the population that is Latino. To do this, we would have needed to run our experiment in contrasting communities with small Latino population shares. Practically speaking, however, the need to contact a large sample of Latino voters in these communities using finite resources and in the short GOTV window before the election made a reliable test highly uncertain and ultimately infeasible. We therefore cannot observe whether, as our theory predicts, ethnic appeals have weak or insignificant effects on turnout among high-status individuals and in high-resource communities where Latinos are in the minority.

Experimental Design and Analysis

In both experiments we relied on placebo-controlled designs to estimate treatment effects of our interventions among those who were successfully contacted. We chose this approach because we expected high noncompliance within our subject pools, which would lead to large standard errors and reduced power to detect treatment effects (Gerber and Green Reference Gerber and Green2012; Nickerson Reference Nickerson2005). The placebo conditions overcame this problem by providing appropriate baseline voting rates to which voting rates in the treatment conditions could be compared (see Nickerson Reference Nickerson2005, 244). This design allowed us to calculate complier average causal effects (CACE) of our identity appeals by comparing turnout rates among those in the placebo condition who successfully received the placebo message to turnout rates among those in the treatment conditions who were successfully treated with identity appeals.Footnote ¹⁵

Latinos within each of our study contexts were randomized to receive either a placebo recycling encouragement, an ethnic identity GOTV appeal, or a national identity GOTV appeal. All treatment and placebo messages were delivered in English or Spanish, as preferred by the contacted voter, using a live telephone bank. Local students were trained to deliver the messages in a conversational manner, and all calls were made under the supervision of one of the authors and a research assistant, procedures that have been shown to increase the effectiveness of GOTV calls (Nickerson Reference Nickerson2007). The callers identified themselves as part of the Waste Recycling Project, a local campaign encouraging recycling (placebo message); the Latino (Hispanic) Voter Project, a local campaign encouraging greater turnout among Latino (Hispanic) citizens (ethnic identity appeals); or the American Voter Project, a local campaign encouraging greater turnout among U.S. citizens (national identity appeal).Footnote ¹⁶

In California, the ethnic identity messages used the word “Latino,” whereas in Texas the ethnic identity messages used “Hispanic,” reflecting local preferences.Footnote ¹⁷ After the subject received a call from the telephone bank, a reminder with the original message was delivered to all contacted voters, another tactic previously shown to increase the effectiveness of GOTV calls (Michelson, García Bedolla, and McConnell Reference Michelson, Bedolla and McConnell2009). In California, the reminders were bilingual postcards sent to contacted voters less than a week before the election. In Texas, the reminders were prerecorded telephone calls made the evening before the election in the contacted voters’ preferred language.

To test our expectations about the effects of ethnic and national identity appeals in high- and low-resource communities, we calculated CACE separately for our low-resource communities (East Los Angeles in the California experiment; San Juan and Edinburg in the Texas experiment) and for our high-resource communities (Montebello in California and McAllen in Texas). We expected that ethnic identity appeals would have positive effects on turnout in both the low- and high-resource communities because of their super-majority Latino population proportions. We expected that national identity appeals would have a positive effect on turnout only in the high-resource communities.

To test our expectations about the effects of these appeals among high- and low-status individuals, we pooled subjects within each experiment and calculated CACE separately for Latinos with high acculturation and high political incorporation (i.e., high status) and for Latinos with low acculturation and low political incorporation (i.e., low status). We expected that national identity appeals would increase turnout among the high-acculturation and high-political-incorporation subgroups but not among the low-acculturation and low-political-incorporation subgroups. We expected ethnic identity appeals to increase turnout among all of our subgroups.