There is no shortage of books on the role of political parties in congressional politics. Whereas most of this scholarship prominently features the majority party—carefully detailing its leadership structure, procedural advantages, and policy successes—there has been much less attention paid to the role of the minority party in United States legislative politics. In Minority Party Misery, Jacob Smith makes important contributions to this understudied, yet growing, area by examining how politicians’ electoral decisions are shaped by their prospective evaluations of their party’s fate in the upcoming election. Because the minority party faces a challenging legislative environment (e.g., the general inability to advance their legislative proposals), this makes it more likely that they will retire, creates challenges in recruiting quality candidates, and leads to less engagement in members’ fundraising on behalf of their party. These consequences—individually and collectively—have broad implications for the degree of competitiveness in US elections.

Minority Party Misery will have a significant impact on the field of congressional elections because it provides the necessary building blocks for a novel research agenda. Smith situates his theory in the voluminous literature on candidate emergence and ambition theory, yet pushes us to consider how members’ prospective evaluations of the broader context (i.e., whether or not their party will be in the majority) could also influence their electoral activity and decisions. In this sense, the book moves us away from solely considering these decisions as unique to the individual legislator and suggests broader forces at work driving candidate emergence and member retirements. This seems very plausible given that we saw an exodus of many seasoned GOP senators and representatives (26 representatives and four senators) in the lead-up to the 2020 election, which some had forecasted would be a “Blue Wave.” Interestingly, the exodus was not confined solely to members in competitive districts. This is also consistent with Smith’s analysis of retirements of super-vulnerable and super-safe members.

Smith relies on data from Gary Jacobson and Jamie Carson’s research on congressional retirements for much of his analysis. However, in Chapter 5, which examines candidate recruitment by party leaders, he conducts a content analysis of four leading publications that specifically focus on Congress to investigate whether party recruitment activities were occurring and in which districts. This level of detail allows him to investigate variation in the level of overall party recruitment activity over time as well as, in some cases, whether the parties were able to recruit their preferred candidates successfully. One factor not accounted for in recruitment attempts and failure or success to recruit for congressional seats is the opportunity structure for state-level offices. It is likely that the political environment within the state would also affect the incentives of members to run for congressional seats. The level of professionalization of the legislature, membership turnover of state-level offices, and compensation are a few of the factors that could potentially influence the success of party leaders to recruit quality candidates for congressional office. Additionally, previous work demonstrates significant gender and racial differences in candidate recruitment. Although the book does touch on how members who are a “minority within the minority party” view their experiences, more systematic analysis could help uncover exactly how these individual factors interact with the larger political environment to shape electoral competition. Whether perceptions of partisan electoral prospects differ between male and female candidates (as well as white and non-white candidates) and how that could influence their likelihood to run for office would be a fruitful extension of this work.

Another important contribution of Smith’s book is the creation of a new measure of the electoral prospects of the minority party, which serves as the key independent variable in his analyses. This measure is constructed using regression analysis on a variety of macrolevel political and economic variables, such as previous seats, public approval, and income. The measure performs remarkably well in explaining not only member retirements but also candidate recruitment and engagement in party fundraising efforts. It is likely that many of the factors that shape the parties’ prospects of being in the majority are also influenced by the retirements, candidate recruitment, and fundraising. The factors may be mutually reinforcing.

A strength of this study is Smith’s efforts of testing the primary theory across a variety of institutional contexts to establish its generalizability. He not only analyzes the US House, but also examines the US Senate as well as state legislatures. As Smith notes, “the typical Senator [in the minority party] does not experience the same amount of unpleasantness as does a House member” (p. 119). Given the broader range of institutional prerogatives afforded to individual senators compared to representatives, they have a greater capacity to potentially wield influence over policy. Indeed, the results do suggest that the prospects of one’s party being in the minority affects some members more than others. In particular, it seems to affect northern senators more than southern senators. This analysis provides important nuance to the overall theory presented in the book and illustrates the importance that institutional context may ultimately have on electoral competition.

The skillful use of candidate interviews throughout the book adds considerable depth to the quantitative models. Specifically, Smith follows up unexpected results in his chapter examining state legislatures—where prospects of minority party status produced an increased likelihood of candidate emergence—with interviews of both successful and unsuccessful state legislative candidates. One insight gleaned from such interviews was that state legislative candidates were more likely to believe that bipartisanship and compromise could occur and, therefore, they had a more optimistic outlook on running for office even if they would be a member of the minority party. He attributes this at least in part to the candidates’ prior officeholding experience, arguing that many state legislative candidates come from environments that perhaps are more conducive to bipartisanship, such as local politics. Given the significant variation in partisan competition, institutional prerogatives of the majority and minority parties, and degree of partisan polarization in state legislative chambers, the context may indeed be more favorable for these candidates even if they are in the minority party than it would be in the US Congress.

Minority Party Misery will have an important influence on the way scholars think about the factors that shape legislators’ electoral decisions. By broadening the scope to include not only individual characteristics of legislators but also their perceptions of their party’s fortunes, Smith has advanced our knowledge of the factors underpinning electoral competition. This has significant implications for the quality of democratic governance enjoyed by citizens. These contributions ensure that Minority Party Misery will have a major impact on scholarship to come.