The end of perceived stability, a changing monetary environment, uncertain political and economic conditions that grew more tense with the expansion of empire—these are the important factors shaping the historical narrative of Accounting for the Fall of Silver: Hedging Currency Risk in Long-Distance Trade with Asia, 1870–1913, by Michael Schiltz. Schiltz, whose previous book, Money Doctors from Japan: Finance, Imperialism and Building the Yen Bloc, 1895–1937 (2012), examined the role of financiers in the Japanese Empire, takes the reader inside financial institutions in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries as much of the world adopted some form of the gold or gold-exchange standard while many places in Asia, particularly China during the Qing dynasty and Nationalist period, remained on the silver standard.
The first two chapters provide a concise and cogent overview of important debates in economic history. The relationship between gold and silver was mostly stable in the first part of the nineteenth century with France playing a key role in the broader bimetallic system. That meant there was little currency risk in the trade between Europe and Asia. However, in the 1870s the price of silver in terms of gold began to decline. Schiltz, in line with arguments by economist Marc Flandreau, contends that the shift away from bimetallism was not preordained but the result of several contingent events. Even more important, we can look at a graph of historical silver prices today and see a clear and lasting fall beginning in the latter part of the nineteenth century, but people at the time did not know where silver prices were headed. “Silver's confidence crisis was protracted,” Schiltz concludes, “but [it] did not cause a massive rush away from holding silver liabilities” (p. 15). He argues that previous studies in economic and business history have overlooked the fundamental uncertainty of silver prices. Most of the former are “not aimed at understanding institutions within their specific historical and social context” while most of the latter, often “company-sponsored studies,” have not “delved into the intricacies of nineteenth-century exchange banking practice.” (pp. 1, 16). He employs the opposite approach. Acknowledging the peripheral place of silver-using countries in Asia during the development of the gold standard, Schiltz relies on what he calls an “archeological and forensic” approach to understanding how exchange bankers operated (p. 2). In short, a key question structures the work: How did trade, banking, and financial relationships transform during this period of significant monetary change?
The book then moves deep into the actual business of exchange banks to explain how different financial intermediaries and institutions managed their business in the context of declining—but still uncertain—silver prices. In chapter 3, Schiltz patiently sketches out the role of bills of exchange in the finance of trade between London and Asia before and after significant changes in the price of silver. Before about 1876, merchants in England took part in “adventuring”; that is, they shipped goods to Asia without a buyer and, thanks to the stable gold-silver, did not have to worry about currency risk. Their risk was a much more straightforward business proposition. Later, because of the falling silver, they fretted that “adverse exchanges” would prevent their goods from finding a buyer “and, instead, sought to secure a safe return on their shipments rather than engage in speculation” (p. 50). Bankers worried too; many ascribed the failures of the Oriental Bank to wrong bets on the direction of silver. Finally, technological and transportation developments—specifically, the opening of the Suez Canal and the spread of the telegraph—further changed the contours and timing of international trade. These developments gave rise to a new financial instrument, interest bills, which unlike bills of exchange until that point, had a set rate of exchange between silver and British Pounds.
Chapter 4 provides more detail on these general principles by explaining the financial relationships between exchange banks in London and their branches throughout Asia. Exchange banks—and here Schiltz mostly focuses on the Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation—attempted to remain on “an even keel” buying and selling bills on different sides of exporting and importing transactions, as well as selling remittances, to cover or offset their positions (p. 75). In the final chapter, the author's method of “forensic accounting” is most on display as he reconstructs the banking strategies of Yokohama Specie Bank from 1893 to 1908 and how the practices of the bank changed along with the currency system of Japan, which adopted the gold standard, and as the Japanese empire expanded in East Asia. Schiltz also includes a valuable appendix, which is almost another stand-alone chapter, discussing the history of the Yokohama Specie Bank archives, as well as the interpretive challenges in using these materials. It is a very helpful appendix, and we should be grateful that the publisher assented to its inclusion.
From the author's mastery of debates about macroeconomic conditions in the late nineteenth century to his minute understanding of the business, balance sheets, and accounting procedures of exchange banks, the work is a stunning achievement. Chapters 3, 4, and 5 will be particularly important for business historians working on financial history and international trade during this period by serving as a reference for how trade and banking practices changed over time. Given its scope and level of detail, the book, though lucidly argued, does have a high barrier to entry, and one that is likely prohibitive for use at the undergraduate level. However, the book could be profitably deployed in graduate seminars in a wide range of areas from Asian history to business history and the history of global capitalism.