1 Introduction
Demographic changes are going to turn the population pyramids upside down in the industrialized countries. Pension systems based on intergenerational transfers, like the German Federal Pension Fund, may get severe problems in financing the pensions of future retirees. Therefore, private retirement provisions become more and more important. The question how people should optimize their asset allocation over life cycle to accumulate a sufficient buffer stock of wealth has been widely discussed in the literature so far (e.g., Merton, Reference Merton1969, Reference Merton1971; Richard, Reference Richard1975).Footnote 1
In this paper, however, we do not look at the whole life cycle but concentrate on the third stage of life, i.e., the retirement period beginning at, e.g., 65 years. At this point in time income usually decreases so that retirees might be forced to decumulate assets. We assume that people reaching retirement age have built up a buffer stock of wealth in former years so that a certain amount of money is paid out, e.g., from a cash-value life insurance. Then the retirees have to decide how much money to consume (and how much to invest) and how to invest the residual capital. To concentrate on the retirement period we do not consider the optimal decisions of investing and consumption to build up such a capital stock. Instead we analyze optimal consumption and asset decisions conditional on given capital at the beginning of the retirement period.
Since a retiree's remaining years of life are uncertain, he faces the risk of longevity. His funds might be exhausted too soon because the consumption in the first years of retirement was too high. So he might fall into poverty before dying (Horneff et al., Reference Horneff, Maurer and Stamos2008b). For this reason it is important to model the uncertainty about the age of death, i.e., mortality risk, as realistic as possible to determine optimal consumption and portfolio choice.
We also analyze the impact of the bequest motive allowing for variations in its intensity. It is reasonable to assume that this motive is rather important for elderly people (but not for younger ones). The retirees might want to keep a positive fraction of their funds in bequestable forms until death.
The aim of the paper is thus twofold: First and most importantly, we want to find optimal consumption and portfolio-choice strategies for a random life time with realistic mortality rates thus taking into account the longevity risk. Second, we study the influence of the weight of the bequest motive on the optimal strategies.
The widely used exponential distribution of life time has a constant mortality rate, a condition that is certainly not fulfilled for retirees. However, the exponential distribution simplifies the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellmann (HJB) equation considerably so that the optimal consumption strategy can be given in an explicit form. This is one of the main reasons why this lifetime distribution often appears in recent papers and monographs. To reach the first aim of our paper we refer to another, more realistic model for the mortality rate. We use the parametric logistic model and fit this model to data from the Statistical Yearbook for the Federal Republic of Germany 2006/2008. As far as we know, this paper is the first which uses the logistic model, to describe the process of aging especially for very old people very well, in a combined consumption and portfolio-choice problem.
For any mortality rate the optimal consumption strategy and portfolio choice are found by reducing the HJB equation to the solution of an ordinary differential function (ODF) that includes the mortality rate. Besides we show that for the special case of an exponential distribution the ODF reduces to a non-linear equation that provides the result of Merton (Reference Merton1969). For our logistic model the initial value a 0* needed to solve the ODF that belongs to the optimal consumption is unknown. Therefore, we consider the total expected discounted utility as a function of an arbitrary initial value a 0 and find a 0* by numerical maximization.
To reach the second aim, we also model the utility resulting from bequest. By numerical calculations, we derive the impact of the bequest motive on the changes of the optimal consumption ratio, i.e., the ratio of optimal consumption to wealth.
One of the main results of this paper is that optimal consumption is proportional to wealth where in contrast to Merton (Reference Merton1969) this factor is time dependent. After retirement the optimal consumption ratio rises over time but later on it decreases again. Without bequest motive the application of the data of the Statistical Yearbook for the Federal Republic of Germany 2006/2008 show a large increase in the optimal consumption ratio up to about 92 years followed by a sharp decrease.
A bequest motive dampens the magnitudes of the ups and downs of the consumption ratio but does not change the basic shape. A retiree who wants to have a positive property at his stochastic date of death chooses a relatively low consumption ratio (and does not increase it that much) whereas for a retiree without any intention to leave some money to his heirs a higher, more rapidly increasing (and later decreasing) consumption ratio is optimal.
Finally, the result of Merton (Reference Merton1969) and Samuelson (Reference Samuelson1969) of constant portfolio choice for a constant mortality is confirmed for arbitrary mortality. As we assume CRRA (constant relative risk aversion) utility functions and lifetime being uncorrelated with asset returns, a retiree's optimal portfolio choice is only influenced by risk and return of his assets and hence independent of consumption, wealth, and any bequest motive. The expected return has a positive impact on the share of the risky asset in the portfolio whereas the riskless returns, the volatility of the risky asset, and the measure of relative risk aversion have a negative impact.
The paper is organized as follows: After a brief overview on the related literature in Section 2 we discuss the model for mortality in Section 3. A special issue is the fit of the logistic model to the hazard function calculated by the Statistical Yearbook for the Federal Republic of Germany 2006/2008. In Section 4 we discuss the capital market model and the structure of the retiree's utility to be maximized. For the power utility function of the consumption and the bequest motive we solve the HJB equation in Section 5 and consider the optimal control problem in Section 6. A numerical maximization can be found in Section 7. Finally, Section 8 provides some concluding remarks.
2 Literature review
Our paper contributes to the literature on optimal consumption and investment decisions by focusing on people at retirement age. Keynes (Reference Keynes1936) has already mentioned eight motivations for saving: (1) precautionary motive, (2) consumption smoothing, (3) realization of capital gains, (4) increase in standard of living, (5) independence, (6) saving for risky projects, (7) bequest motive, and (8) meanness (Dummann, Reference Dummann2008). Our approach is based on the second (and seventh) motivation, which is basically represented by the life-cycle model of Modigliani and Brumberg (Reference Modigliani, Brumberg and Kurihara1954). They describe saving as a means of consumption smoothing, i.e., consumption is separated from variations in income, which usually sharply decreases at retirement age.
Beside the quite simple deterministic model of Modigliani and Brumberg (Reference Modigliani, Brumberg and Kurihara1954), more detailed stochastic theories for optimal consumption and saving behavior have been developed. Phelps (Reference Phelps1962) presents an initial approach based on stochastic dynamic programming, which may be used to derive optimal consumption rules under certain conditions. Merton (Reference Merton1969, Reference Merton1971) extends this approach to optimal portfolio selection rules using less restrictive assumptions. Like Merton we consider a two-asset model. A retiree may thus choose between a riskless and a risky asset whose yield is generated by a stochastic process. As a result Merton (Reference Merton1971) derives closed form solutions for optimal consumption and asset allocation based on an exponential distribution of lifetime. He shows that optimal consumption is a constant fraction of wealth. Since we focus on people who retire and thus are rather old, general life-cycle models like Merton (Reference Merton1971) and Richard (Reference Richard1975) cannot be used in our analysis. They do not take into account the notable increase of the mortality over the years of retirement. Deriving a more realistic mortality function in this paper, we get different optimal consumption rules.
With regard to asset allocation Merton's conclusions correspond to the seminal papers of Samuelson (Reference Samuelson1969, Reference Samuelson1989), who demonstrates that optimal asset allocation is independent of the time horizon if the investor shows constant relative risk aversion.Footnote 2 Although this conclusion contradicts to intuition and rules of thumb commonly used in asset management, we follow this approach insofar as we look at retirees with constant relative risk aversion.
Based on the seminal papers mentioned above there exists a large number of papers about life-cycle finance. According to Bodie et al. (Reference Bodie, Merton and Samuelson1992) and Bodie et al. (Reference Bodie, Detemple and Rindisbacher2009) three dimensions of choice that people face during their life cycle are often distinguished: labor-leisure, consumption-savings, and risk-return choices. In this paper, we disregard the first dimension because, by definition, retirees do not work and leisure is thus costless. As another important difference to the basic life-cycle model reviewed by Bodie et al. (Reference Bodie, Detemple and Rindisbacher2009), we allow a stochastic lifetime and especially the (unrestricted) risk of longevity.
Modeling mortality has a long history in mathematics and demography. Already de Moivre (Reference de Moivre1725) has postulated a time dependent mortality function with a strictly increasing mortality rate over the years whereas an exponential pattern of mortality with constant mortality rates is usually assumed in (the basic) life-cycle models (Merton, Reference Merton1971; Richard, Reference Richard1975). Gompertz (Reference Gompertz1825) formulates a function with exponentially increasing mortality rates, which has also been used in insurance economic models (Gerrad et al., Reference Gerrad, Haberman and Vigna2003; Milevsky et al., Reference Milevsky, Moore and Young2006; Horneff et al., Reference Horneff, Maurer and Stamos2008b). Makeham (Reference Makeham1860) and Weibull (Reference Weibull1939), among others, refine the Gompertz function. In this paper, however, we follow Thatcher et al. (Reference Thatcher, Kannisto and Vaupel1999) who use the logistic model, and show that the logistic mortality of elderly people matches the empirical mortality in Germany quite well.
In addition to the more general microeconomic models mentioned above, there are specific insurance economic models that focus on the option to annuitize existing wealth in order to insure people against the risk of longevity.Footnote 3Hakansson (Reference Hakansson1969) and Richard (Reference Richard1975) extend Merton's model by the option to annuitize existing wealth using life insurance products. Yaari (Reference Yaari1965) and Davidoff et al. (Reference Davidoff, Brown and Diamond2005) examine the annuitization option and figure out that annuitization is optimal for risk-averse people without bequest motive.Footnote 4
However, we disregard the option of annuitization via life insurance products because the aim of our paper is to show the optimal consumption pattern and self-controlled liquidation of wealth throughout retirement. Even though full annuitization via life insurance products would remove mortality risk, in reality the option of annuitization is not popular among elderly at all. The market for private annuitization is rather small (Modigliani, Reference Modigliani1986; Maurer and Somova, Reference Maurer and Somova2009). This might be explained, e.g., by the advantages of self-controlled liquidation like potentially higher payouts, higher flexibility, or the bequest motive, which plays an important role in our paper.Footnote 5
Horneff et al. (Reference Horneff, Maurer, Mitchell and Dusy2008a) examine strategies of ‘self-annuitization’ as an alternative to, or in combination, with the annuitization via life insurance products. In this context ‘self-annuitization’ describes the self-controlled withdrawing of existing wealth by rules of thumb (Polyak, Reference Polyak2005; Whitaker, Reference Whitaker2005). In contrast to Horneff et al. (Reference Horneff, Maurer, Mitchell and Dusy2008a), we do not follow exogenously given rules of thumb but derive an optimal self-controlled withdrawal rule.
The retirement payout research literature concentrates on questions like whether, how, and when to annuitize or why in reality people do not annuitize. Even though this is not in line with the purpose of our paper, some features of the models in this body of literature are in a sense similar to some characteristics of our model. Yaari (Reference Yaari1965), e.g., also introduces stochastic mortality within a life-cycle model. Current papers on consumption, asset allocation, and life insurance decisions with special focus on elderly people also offer quite realistic patterns of mortality. However, in a lot of these (and other life-cycle) papers the lifespan is bounded by assumption to a universal and exogenously given constant (e.g., Hubbard et al. Reference Hubbard, Skinner and Zeedes1994; Feinstein and Lin, Reference Feinstein and Lin2006; Horneff et al., Reference Horneff, Maurer, Mitchell and Dusy2008a, Reference Horneff, Maurer and Stamosb; Zeng, Reference Zeng2008; Yogo, Reference Yogo2009; Inkmann et al., Reference Inkmann, Lopes and Michaelides2011). This assumption allows for solving the models numerically by backward induction. The maximum lifespan is important information for the retiree so that optimal consumption rises rapidly just before maximum lifetime will be reached.
In this paper, we refrain from modeling a curtailed lifetime because we want to include the entire effect of longevity in our model. Since we assume an infinite time horizon, we are not able to find optimal consumption (and portfolio choice) strategies via dynamic programming, which is typically applied in the papers mentioned above. Without this exogenously given upper bound of lifetime the optimal consumption strategy is not that obvious anymore. We show that in case of an exponential distribution of lifetime with constant mortality the optimal consumption ratio is constant over time whereas in case of the more realistic logistic model of mortality this ratio first increases and later on decreases again.
Some of the authors who focus on annuitization, like Milevsky and Young (Reference Milevsky and Young2007), also introduce unrestricted stochastic lifespans. The aim of Milevsky and Young (Reference Milevsky and Young2007) is to find optimal annuitizations for a model that has been obtained by including the option of annuitization in the classical Merton model. One of their main results concerns an open-market arrangement where retirees can annuitize any fraction of their wealth at any time. Here, the lifetime distribution is assumed to be exponential. Furthermore, the current literature, like Wang and Young (Reference Wang and Young2012) or Gerrad et al. (Reference Gerrad, Haberman and Vigna2012), enhances Milevsky and Young (Reference Milevsky and Young2007), but they all use the exponential distribution thus simplifying the theoretical analysis. Although some of the technical details (Itô formula, HJB equation) of these papers are similar to technical details in our paper, one can say that both the model and the aim differ from our approach and their results do not include ours.
Finally, we want to emphasize that in other life-cycle models the portfolio choice is sometimes modeled in a quite simple way. For example, compared with Hubbard et al. (Reference Hubbard, Skinner and Zeedes1994) we have one random component more in our model because here the risky asset follows a stochastic process.Footnote 6 To the best of our knowledge, our paper presents the only life-cycle portfolio-choice model that includes the two-asset model of Merton (Reference Merton1969)and the logistic model for a time dependent mortality risk with infinite horizon. Neglecting any life annuity contracts we are able to concentrate on the combined dynamic consumption and portfolio-choice problem of retirees under realistic mortality.
3 The model for mortality
The lifetime of an individual is a non-negative continuous random variable. We consider the subpopulation of the retirees and denote by T the random time after 65 that the retiree survives. We denote by F(t),t⩾0 the cumulative distribution function and by f(t),t⩾0 the density function. Furthermore, we set
$\hskip2pt\overline{\!F} \equals 1 \minus F$ Then for every t⩾0
is the probability that the retiree is getting at least 65+t years. To model the process of aging it is useful to express this probability in terms of the mortality function λ which is defined by
It holds
This means that in the process of choosing a suitable model for lifetime data one may look for a suitable mortality function instead of operating with the density directly. The background is that the probability that the individual dies in the infinitesimal interval [t,t+dt] under the condition that he has survived the time t can be approximately expressed with the help of the mortality function
The exponential distribution F(t)=1−exp{−λt}, t⩾0, is one of the mostly used lifetime distributions. It has the constant mortality rate λ(t)=λ. Unfortunately, although this distribution is easy to handle in concrete calculations, it models the lifetime of an individual only for time before the aging process has been started. Since we exclusively investigate the survival time of retired persons, the exponential distribution cannot be used for our purposes because of its constant mortality. Instead we have, according to (1), to choose a suitable monotonously increasing mortality function. Classical mortality functions are those of Gompertz (Reference Gompertz1825), Weibull (Reference Weibull1939), and Makeham (Reference Makeham1860) . These mortality functions describe the process of aging by their monotonicity property in the one or different way. However, the aging process at high ages is overemphasized by these models, which is noted by several authors. Thatcher et al. (Reference Thatcher, Kannisto and Vaupel1999) show that the logistic model fit the mortality particularly for the oldest old best. The model for the logistic mortality rate is given by
where θ=(a,b,c,d) is the vector of unknown parameters.
This definition of the mortality function improves the fit of the model to real data of elderly people in several countries compared with other models (see e.g., Thatcher et al., Reference Thatcher, Kannisto and Vaupel1999). The main property of the logistic function is that it converges to a plateau, a constant, for high ages (>120 years). This was also shown by Gampe (Reference Gampe2010) by means of a fit to real data. For a detailed discussion of the pros and cons of this mortality function we refer to Thatcher (Reference Thatcher1999) .
To estimate the parameters a,b,c,d we follow Thatcher et al. (Reference Thatcher, Kannisto and Vaupel1999) and DAV-Unterarbeitsgruppe Rentnersterblichkeit (2005) . Let Lx be the number of individuals who reach age x⩾65 and Tx be the number of individuals who die within 12 month. Furthermore, qx(θ) denotes the probability of dying within 12 month of reaching the age x that is given by
According to Thatcher et al. (Reference Thatcher, Kannisto and Vaupel1999) we assume that the number of deaths has a binomial distribution so that the log likelihood is given by
The concrete values of Lx and Tx are taken from the Statistical Yearbook for the Federal Republic of Germany 2006/2008. To meet the requirements that the data are discrete and the model is continuous, we follow Wilmoth et al. (Reference Wilmoth, Andreev, Jdanov and Glei2007)
and use λθ(t+0.5) instead of λθ(t) to calculate qx(θ). The following numerical values for
$\hskip 2pt\hat{a}\comma \hats{b}\comma \; \hat{c}$ and
$\hats{d}$ are obtained by maximizing L(θ):
Unlike Thatcher (Reference Thatcher1999), we do not neglect the parameter d and do not assume a=b, which leads to the model of Kannisto (Reference Kannisto1992) . We see from Figure 1 how the fitted logistic mortality behaves.
In order to asses the fit we calculate the mortality rate directly from the Statistical Yearbook via
$D_{x} \sol \hats{L}_{x} $, where
$\hats{L}_{x} $ is the average number of individuals that live through the interval [x, x+1) with
$\hats{L}_{x} \equals \lpar L_{x} \plus L_{x \plus \setnum{1}} \rpar \sol 2$ We do not plot the hazard rate from the Statistical Yearbook for the Federal Republic of Germany 2006/2008 in Figure 1 because the curves coincide as desired. To demonstrate the goodness of the fit, we show the numerical distance of the fitted hazard rate and the female hazard rate from the Statistical Yearbook in Table 1 for selected ages.
(colour online) Estimate of the logistic model to Statistical Yearbook for the Federal Republic of Germany 2006/2008.
Distance of fit and Statistical Yearbook

4 The capital market model and the control problem
In this paper we focus on the effects that origin from the aging process that has just been described in Section 3. Therefore, we refrain from using a convoluted market model. Instead we confine ourselves to the simple model of a complete and perfect capital market with a riskless and a risky asset. The price of the riskless asset follows the process
where St ,0 denotes the price of the riskless asset at time t and r is the interest rate. The risky asset follows a geometric Brownian motion. We assume that
where St ,1 denotes the price of the risky asset at time t, μ is the expected rate of return, σ is the volatility of the risky asset at time t and Bt is the Brownian motion.
At date of retirement a certain amount of money is paid out, e.g. from a cash-value life insurance, so that a retiree is endowed with an initial amount of liquid wealth w 0. He has to decide how much money to consume (and how much to invest) and how to invest the residual capital. Since he can choose only between two assets, the trade strategy is easy to describe. If Wt denotes the wealth at time t, then the fraction πt⋅Wt is invested in the risky asset whereas (1−πt)⋅W t is invested in the riskless asset.
Other sources of income like a remaining human capital or real estate investments are not taken into account. Therefore, we can concentrate on the retiree's utility drawn from the conversion of his initial wealth into a stream of income.
To complete the model we denote by ct the consumption process. As the wealth process Wt is Markovian, we may, without restriction of generality, confine ourselves to a Markovian control, i.e., πt and ct depend on the current value Wt only. In other words the control vector (πt,ct) is a function of (t,Wt). Putting together the components we get
This means that the wealth process Wt satisfies the following stochastic differential equation
where α(s,w,c,π)=w[πs(w)(μ−r)+r]−cs (w) and β(s,w,π)=wπσ.
By assumption, the retiree maximizes his expected utility. On the one hand, his utility is determined by an intertemporal consumption process which is described by a time depending non-negative utility function U(t, w, c, π) that depends on the wealth and the control ut=(ct, πt) consisting of the consumption ct and the portfolio function πt. On the other hand, the retiree's utility is influenced by the bequest motive. The utility resulting from bequest, G(⋅), describes the individual utility if the retiree is passing by before full consumption of his wealth, leaving a legacy to the beneficiaries. Thus, the retiree's maximization problem can be described as follows:
where T denotes the retiree's remaining lifetime, Wt is the stochastic process of the retiree's wealth in (5) and the maximum is taken over the Markovian control ut=(ct, πt).
To specify the model we assume that the Brownian motion Bt in the capital market model and the random lifetime T are independent. This means that we do not study strategies for which some fraction of the wealth is invested in additional medical treatment or cures that influence lifetime. Although such dependencies between wealth and lifetime exist, the mathematical modeling seems to be rather convoluted. The reason is that there are not any mathematical models that describe the influence of additional medical treatment on a possible extension of lifetime. Thus we exclude models which allow that the consumption has influence on the lifetime.
To evaluate (6) we transform the control problem with a random horizon into a control problem with a non-random but infinite horizon and a new utility function that includes the lifetime distribution. More precisely, let I [t,∞)(x) be the indicator function of [t,∞), i.e., I [t ,∞)(x)=1 if x⩾t and I [t ,∞)(x)=0 otherwise and recall that U(t,Wt,ct,πt) and I [t ,∞)(T) are independent. Then, similar as in Pham (Reference Pham2009),
$$\eqalign{ E\int_{\setnum{0}}^{T} {U\lpar t\comma W_{t} \comma c_{t} \comma \pi _{t} \rpar dt} \equals \tab E\int_{\setnum{0}}^{\infty } \!\!{U\lpar t\comma W_{t} \comma c_{t} \comma \pi _{t} \rpar I_{\lsqb t\comma \infty \rpar } \lpar T\rpar dt} \cr \equals \tab \int_{\setnum{0}}^{\infty }\!\! {EU\lpar t\comma W_{t} \comma c_{t} \comma \pi _{t} \rpar P\lpar T\ges t\rpar dt} \cr \equals \tab E\int_{\setnum{0}}^{\infty }\!\! {U\lpar t\comma W_{t} \comma c_{t} \comma \pi _{t} \rpar \bar{F}\lpar t\rpar dt.} \cr} $$As T has the density f we get
Putting the last two equations together we arrive at
where the new utility function is given by
Thus we see that the original control problem (6) with random horizon is transformed into a new control problem
with an infinite time horizon but with a new utility function that includes the lifetime distribution. The new utility function admits the following interpretation: A retiree acts as if he will live forever but weighs his utility of consumption with the survival probabilityFootnote 7 and his utility of leaving some wealth to his heirs with the probability of living exactly until date t.
5 Solution of the HJB equation
We have seen in Section 4 that the problem of finding the optimal consumption leads to the control problem (8). Denote by Ew0 the expectation with respect to a wealth process that has the initial value w 0 at t=0. The crucial point in the control theory is the value function defined by
where Ws is a wealth process that has the value w at time t, i.e., it is the solution of the equation
Similar to Fleming and Soner (Reference Fleming and Soner1993), Korn (Reference Korn1997)
or Pham (Reference Pham2009)
one can, at least formally, show that the value function
(t,w) of the control problem (9) satisfies the HJB equation
To specify the utility function
${\cal U}$ we recall to the representation (7) and construct
${\cal U}$ as a product of a purely time depending component and a component that exclusively depends on the wealth. For the latter a CRRA utility function (e.g., Cagetti, Reference Cagetti2003; Edwards, Reference Edwards2008) will be taken as this class shows fairly realistic features implicating a decreasing absolute risk aversion and a constant relative risk aversion. Similar to Stabile (Reference Stabile2006)
we set
The definition for γ=1 is motivated by
The value U γ(c) is the utility of consumption c. By assumption, the measure of individual relative risk aversion γ is lower or equal to 1 to avoid negative utility of consumption, which economically would not make any sense. It is common (e.g., Karatzas and Shreve, Reference Karatzas and Shreve1998, p. 142) to discount the utility with the time preference rate δ so that
A high value of δ>0 means that the retiree prefers consumption in the near future whereas low values emphasize the benefit of consumption in the far future.
For the bequest motive we use the same utility function as for the consumption together with the same discount factor exp{−δt}. As this homogeneity assumption is a crucial point, it has been widely used in the literature so far (e.g., Cagetti, Reference Cagetti2003; Cocco et al., Reference Cocco, Gomes and Maenhout2005; Horneff et al., Reference Horneff, Maurer, Mitchell and Dusy2008a). According to Feinstein and Lin (Reference Feinstein and Lin2006) it is reasonable to assume the same curvature of both utility functions, i.e., the same degree of risk aversion, if a retiree feels obliged to leave some money to his heirs, e.g., because of family traditions.
The utility function for the bequest motive is given by
We introduce the parameter ξ as the weight of the bequest motive. A positive weight, ξ>0, means that the retiree always desires to leave some wealth to his beneficiaries. If ξ=0, however, bequests are purely accidental due to the fact that lifetime is uncertain (Cagetti, Reference Cagetti2003).
Putting U(t,w,c,π)=U γ(t,c) and G(t,w)=ξG γ(t,w) in (7) we arrive at the following time-dependent utility function
for the control problem (8), where we suppose 0<γ⩽1. Then with
the HJB equation turns into
To solve this equation we use an approach that separates the variables and set
Suppose 0<γ<1, set
and consider a function a that satisfies the ordinary differential equation
$$\openup3\eqalign{ \tab a\prime \lpar t\rpar \plus a\lpar t\rpar \chi \plus {\rm \gamma }a^{\setnum{1} \minus \setnum{1}\sol \gamma } \lpar t\rpar \bar{F}^{\,\setnum{1}\sol \gamma } \lpar t\rpar \plus \xi f\hskip 1\lpar t\rpar \equals 0\comma \cr \tab \chi \equals {1 \over 2}{{\lpar 1 \minus \gamma \rpar } \over \gamma }{{\lpar \mu \minus r\rpar ^{\setnum{2}} } \over {\sigma ^{\setnum{2}} }} \minus \delta \plus \lpar 1 \minus \gamma \rpar r. \cr} $$Proposition 1 states that the separation of variable approach in (13) leads to a solution of the HJB equation provided a is a solution of (15). For the proof of this proposition we refer to the Appendix.
Proposition 1For the retiree's maximization problem
we suppose that the capital market model is given by (3) and (4). The utility functions are assumed to be
If
$\bar{F}$and f are the survival and density function of the lifetime, respectively, then &calV;(t,w) in (13) together with c* and π* in (14) are solutions of the HJB equations, provided that a(t) is a solution of the ordinary differential equation (15).
Proposition 1 is a main step towards the solution of the optimization problem (16). But it does not provide the complete solution.
(1) Similar as in the majority of books and papers, we have established the HJB equation only heuristically. Therefore, it remains open whether there exists an optimal solution and, provided it exists, it satisfies the HJB equation.
(2) One way for a rigorous mathematical treatment of optimization problems of the type (16) is to consider a suitable solution of the formally established HJB equation and to prove the optimality by an application of a verification theorem whose proof consists of an application of Ito's lemma and the verification of
(17)where Wt* is the wealth process governed by cT*, πT* (Fleming and Soner, Reference Fleming and Soner1993; Korn, Reference Korn1997; Pham, Reference Pham2009). A verification of the condition (17) will be intractable unless we can solve the ordinary differential equation (15) explicitly which brings us in the position to select a suitable initial value a 0 whose associated solution a of (15) satisfies (17).
$$\mathop {\lim }\limits_{T \to \infty } E{\cal U}\lpar T\comma W{\vskip-2pt\ast }_{\hskip-6ptT} \comma c{\vskip-2pt\ast }_{\hskip-5pt T} \comma {\rm \pi }{\vskip-2pt\ast }_{\hskip-5pt T} \rpar \equals 0\comma $$
Now we will discuss the situation of Proposition 1 if the lifetime has an exponential distribution, a problem that has already been considered by Merton (Reference Merton1971) . In this case the differential equation (15) turns into
We set a(t)=b(t)exp{−λt} and obtain
Hence
$$\eqalign{ \tab b\prime \lpar t\rpar \plus \lpar \chi \minus \lambda \rpar b\lpar t\rpar \plus {\rm \gamma }b^{\setnum{1} \minus \setnum{1}\sol {\rm \gamma }} \lpar t\rpar \plus \xi \lambda \equals 0\comma \quad {\rm where} \cr \tab \chi \equals {1 \over 2}{{\lpar 1 \minus {\rm \gamma }\rpar } \over {\rm \gamma }}{{\lpar \mu \minus r\rpar ^{\setnum{2}} } \over {\sigma ^{\setnum{2}} }} \plus \lpar 1 \minus {\rm \gamma }\rpar r \minus \delta . \cr} $$If 0<γ<1 and χ<λ, then the continuous function ψ(b)= (χ−λ)b+γb 1− 1/γ+ξλ is strictly decreasing and satisfies
$\mathop {\lim }\limits_{b \downarrow \setnum{0}} \psi \lpar b\rpar \equals \infty $ and
$\mathop {\lim }\limits_{b \to \infty } \psi \lpar b\rpar \equals \minus \infty $. Hence the non-linear equation
has a unique solution that is denoted by b* and it can be shown that the verification theorem holds (Pham, Reference Pham2009). Finally we note that for ξ=0 (no bequest motive) b*=(γ/(λ−χ))γ. Thus we have the following result that is due to Merton (Reference Merton1969).
Conclusion 1.If the conditions in Proposition 1 are satisfied, the conditions 0<γ<1 and χ<λ hold and the lifetime distribution is exponential with parameter λ then
is an optimal control of the retiree's maximization problem (16). In the maximization problem without bequest motive, i.e., ξ=0, the optimal control c* is given by
If the lifetime T follows an exponential distribution, the optimal share π* of the risky asset does neither depend on wealth nor on time. The independence of wealth is not surprising because by assumption we look at a retiree with constant relative risk aversion. Only if the return of the riskless asset, the volatility of the risky asset, or the relative risk aversion decrease, or the expected return of the risky asset increases the investment in the risky asset becomes more attractive compared with the riskless investment. The retiree raises the share of the risky assets. His portfolio selection is thus independent of consumption (Merton, Reference Merton1969). The optimal consumption strategy is constant and also consistent with Merton (Reference Merton1969) .
As for an exponential lifetime distribution the differential equation (18) reduces to the non-linear equation (19), in contrast with the case of a general lifetime distribution, there is no problem of finding an appropriate initial value a 0 for which the solution of (18) satisfies the conditions of the verification theorem and is an optimal control therefore. Later in Section 6 we circumvent the verification theorem in the general case by maximizing the total discounted utility as a function of a 0.
6 Optimal control
The structure of c* and π* in (20) is the motivation to study the class of all control strategies for which consumption is proportional to wealth, where the corresponding factor may depend on time t, and the portfolio function πs does not depend on wealth. Set
where ρ is non-negative and both κ and ρ are continuous. Note that by the construction of the capital market model the two functions ct and πt act, with respect to wealth, in a different way. Whereas by construction πt is already a proportion of wealth (πtWt is to be invested in the risky asset) the consumption ct(Wt) is any function of Wt. But now ρ(t) is the proportion of Wt that can be consumed so that both ρ and κ play the role of proportions.
By (5) the wealth process is given by
With
Ito's formulaFootnote 8 shows that the unique solution is given by
Using the modified utility function
${\cal U}_{\gamma } $ in (12) the total discounted utility is defined by
$$\eqalign{ J_{\gamma } \lpar \kappa \comma \rho \rpar \equals \tab E\int_{\setnum{0}}^{\infty } {{\cal U}_{\gamma } \lpar s\comma \rho \lpar s\rpar W_{s} \comma W_{s} \rpar } ds \cr \equals \tab E\int_{\setnum{0}}^{\infty } {\exp \lcub \minus \delta s\rcub \lpar U_{\gamma } \lpar \rho \lpar s\rpar W_{s} \rpar \bar{F}\lpar s\rpar \plus \xi G_{\gamma } \lpar W_{s} \rpar f\hskip 1\lpar s\rpar \rpar ds.} \cr} $$Confining to 0<γ<1 we have
so that we may write the total discounted utility as
$$\eqalign{ J_{\gamma } \lpar \kappa \comma {\kern 1pt} \rho \rpar \equals \tab E\int_{\setnum{0}}^{\infty } {{1 \over {1 \minus \gamma }}} \exp \lcub \minus \delta t\rcub \lpar \bar{F}\lpar t\rpar \lpar \rho \lpar t\rpar W_{t} \rpar ^{\setnum{1} \minus \gamma } \plus \xi f\hskip 1\lpar t\rpar W_{t}^{\setnum{1} \minus \gamma } \rpar dt \cr \equals \tab \int_{\setnum{0}}^{\infty } {\lpar EW_{t}^{\setnum{1} \minus \gamma } \rpar } {1 \over {1 \minus \gamma }}\exp \lcub \minus \delta t\rcub \lpar \bar {F}\lpar t\rpar \lpar \rho ^{\setnum{1} \minus \gamma } \lpar t\rpar \plus \xi f\hskip 1\lpar t\rpar \rpar dt. \cr} $$In order to evaluate EWt 1−γ we use (33) in the Appendix where A and D are specified by (24). This gives
$$\eqalign{ J_{\gamma } \lpar \kappa \comma {\kern 1pt} \rho \rpar \equals \tab {{w_{\setnum{0}}^{\setnum{1} \minus \gamma } } \over {1 \minus \gamma }}\int_{\setnum{0}}^{\infty } {\exp \lcub \minus \delta t\rcub } \lpar \bar{F}\lpar t\rpar \rho ^{\setnum{1} \minus \gamma } \lpar t\rpar \plus \xi f\hskip 1\lpar t\rpar \rpar \cr \tab \times \exp \left\{ {\lpar 1 \minus \gamma \rpar \int_{\setnum{0}}^{t} {\lpar 1 \minus \kappa \lpar s\rpar \rpar r \plus \kappa \lpar s\rpar \mu \minus \rho \lpar s\rpar } \minus {{\gamma \sigma ^{\setnum{2}} \kappa \lpar s\rpar ^{\setnum{2}} } \over 2}ds} \right\}dt. \cr} $$Our aim is to maximize the functional J γ(κ, ρ). As the exponent is quadratic in κ and linear in ρ, we may carry out the maximization with respect to κ in a first step. The function
attains the maximum at
This means that the optimal proportion of wealth that is invested in risky assets is again independent of time. Instead it depends on the difference between the expected return of the risky asset and the return of the riskless asset as well as on the volatility of the risky asset and the retiree's risk aversion. Thus we have shown that the result concerning the optimal portfolio function (see π* in (20)) still holds if we look at a lifetime distribution with logistic (instead of constant) mortality rates. The independence of lifetime and asset returns is one reason for this result. The other ingredient that contributes to this result is the product structure of the utility function. Both facts allow solving the HJB equation by a separation of strategies that finally leads to Merton's strategy.
Since κ* provides the maximum, it holds
so that for every κ
where
We know from Proposition 1 that
$c{\ast } \equals w \cdot \lpar \bar{F}\sol a\rpar ^{\setnum{1}\sol \gamma } $ is the consumption that comes out from the solution of HJB equation, where a satisfies the ordinary differential equation
If the bequest motive is absent, then the differential equation becomes
which is a Bernoulli type differential equation that, by the substitution
is transformed into
The solution of the initial value problem is given by
We have already pointed out that to solve the control problem one has to check the conditions of the verification theorem for a solution of the HJB equation and that this is impossible unless the solution is explicitly known. To circumvent these difficulties we use another approach.
Denote by a(t, a 0, ξ) the solution of (29) that satisfies the initial condition a(0, a 0, ξ)=a 0. Let furthermore be
Instead of verifying the condition (17) we directly investigate the total discounted utility. Within the family a(t, a 0, ξ) we find the optimal solution that solves the control problem by maximizing J γ(κ*, ρ(⋅, a 0, ξ)) as function of a 0. Thus we have the following result.
Proposition 2Suppose that the assumptions of Proposition 1 are fulfilled and that a(t, a 0, ξ) is the solution of(15) with a(0, a 0, ξ)=a 0. If a*0is a maximum point of the function
$a_{\setnum{0}} \mapsto J_{\gamma } \lpar \kappa {\ast } \comma \rho \lpar \cdot \comma a_{\setnum{0}} \comma \xi \rpar \rpar $, then c* and π* in(14) are solutions of the control problem(16) provided that a(t, a*0, ξ) is a solution of the ordinary differential equation(15) with initial value a*0.
The meaning of the above result consists in the fact that for any given lifetime distribution, the right hand term in (28) is an explicit expression that can be maximized as a function of a 0, at least numerically. This is a new way to circumvent the difficulties with the verification theorem.
7 Application
In this section we apply Proposition 2 in order to find the optimal consumption for retirees in Germany. To this end we have to choose an appropriate lifetime distribution. We use the logistic model from Section 3 and apply the estimated parameters in (2). For fixed parameter values r=δ=0.02, μ=0.05, σ=0.2 (Stabile, Reference Stabile2006; Babbel and Merril, Reference Babbel and Merril2007), and γ=0.7, a numerical evaluation of the appearing integrals leads for different values of ξ to the following optimal consumption strategies ct*(w)=w⋅ρ(t, a*0, ξ). Referring to Cocco et al. (Reference Cocco, Gomes and Maenhout2005) we let ξ vary from 0 to 4. The curves ρ(t, a*0, ξ) for ξ=0, ξ=0.5, ξ=1, ξ=2 and ξ=4 are collected in Figure 2.
(colour online) Optimal consumption curves for different weights of the bequest motive (0; 0.5; 1; 2; 4).
The optimal consumption curves are remarkable in several aspects. While the optimal consumption ratio is independent of time if we assume an exponential distribution of lifetime with constant mortality rate (see Conclusion 1), it changes over time if we use the logistic model. In the case without bequest motive the optimal consumption ratio increases over time until about 92 (=65+27) years. Moreover, it shows an increasing growth until about 90 years, afterwards the positive slope of the curve decreases. After about 92 years the optimal consumption ratio sharply decreases down to zero. The rise and fall of the optimal consumption ratio are smoothed by the extent of the bequest motive.
The story behind the non-monotonous run of the curves might be the following: Since the mortality rate exponentially increases during the early years of retirement, a retiree raises his consumption rates during this period. At about 90 years, when he is still alive, he notices that he now faces the risk of longevity because from now on the increase in the mortality rate will continuously decline over the remaining years. Thus he starts not to raise his consumption ratio that much anymore and finally he even decreases it.
The magnitudes of the ups and downs of the consumption ratio are smoothed by the intensity of the bequest motive. Not surprisingly, this motive basically has a negative impact on the optimal consumption ratio. A retiree who wants to have a positive property WT at his stochastic date of death T chooses a relatively low consumption ratio (and does not increase it that much) whereas for a retiree without any intention to leave some money to his heirs a higher, more rapidly increasing (and later decreasing) consumption ratio is optimal.
8 Conclusion
In this paper we analyzed a retiree's optimal consumption and portfolio choice over his remaining years of life. To model the mortality of elderly people we used the logistic model of mortality, which leads to a satisfactory fit to the real data of the German population. Our findings concerning the optimal portfolio selection confirms the results of other authors.
The optimal consumption strategies of retirees, however, have not been described in the literature so far. They are remarkable because the optimal consumption ratio is not constant over time – which is the case for the widely used exponential distribution of lifetime – but shows an increase during the early years of retirement and later on a quite sharp decrease down to zero. The magnitude of this up and down is smoothed by the intensity of the bequest motive.
To concentrate on this remarkable effect, we made some more or less restrictive assumptions in this paper. It would be interesting to relax some of these assumptions. For example, one might think of another lifetime distribution. We also did some similar calculations using the model of Lindbergson (Reference Lindbergson2001) . She introduced a break point and proposed a linear continuation of the mortality rate beyond that point. Using this lifetime distribution the optimal consumption ratio shows a similar up and down.
Moreover, one could look at other than CRRA utility functions or think about other bequest functions. As Feinstein and Lin (Reference Feinstein and Lin2006) point out, the shape of a retiree's utility function of leaving some money to his heirs and the shape of the utility function of consumption need not be the same. For example, it seems reasonable to assume a linear, i.e., risk-neutral bequest function as long as a retiree views the bequest as some extra benefit to his beneficiaries which is not necessary to meet their needs and which they should not rely on. Using different functions for the utility of consumption and the bequest motive, however, would lead to a much more convoluted expression for the total discounted utility. The maximization with respect to the proportion of wealth invested in the risky asset cannot be carried out in a closed form any more. How to proceed further is not easy to answer and might be the topic of further research.
One might also think about including the state of health and the expenditures on health in the model. However, as already mentioned above, to the best of our knowledge there does not exist any mathematical model that describes the dependencies between expenditures on additional medical treatment or cures and lifetime. Since the development of such a model goes far beyond the scope of this paper, it is also left for future research.
Appendix
Proof of Proposition 1
The definition of &calV; γ in (13) gives
$$\openup6\eqalign{ {{\partial {\cal V}_{\rm \gamma } } \over {\partial t}} \equals \tab \minus \delta {\cal V}_{\rm \gamma } \plus {{a\prime} \over a}{\cal V}_{\rm \gamma } \comma \cr {1 \over 2}\lpar w\pi \sigma \rpar ^{\setnum{2}} {{\partial ^{\setnum{2}} {\cal V}_{\rm \gamma } } \over {\partial w^{\setnum{2}} }} \equals \tab \minus {{\gamma \lpar 1 \minus {\rm \gamma }\rpar } \over 2}\lpar \pi \sigma \rpar ^{\setnum{2}} {\cal V}_{\rm \gamma } \comma \cr \lsqb w\pi \lpar \mu \minus r\rpar \plus wr \minus c\rsqb {{\partial {\cal V}_{\rm \gamma } } \over {\partial w}} \equals \tab \lpar 1 \minus \gamma \rpar \lpar \pi \mu \plus \lpar 1 \minus \pi \rpar r\rpar {\cal V}_{\rm \gamma } \minus \lpar 1 \minus \gamma \rpar {c \over w}{\cal V}_{\rm \gamma } \cr} $$and the HJB equation becomes
$$\eqalign{\tab\mathop {\max }\limits_{c\comma \pi } {\cal V}_{\rm \gamma } \bigg( { \minus \delta a \plus a\prime \minus \gamma \lpar 1 \minus \gamma \rpar \lpar \pi \sigma \rpar ^{\setnum{2}} {a \over 2} \plus \lpar 1 \minus \gamma \rpar a\lpar \pi \mu \plus\lpar 1 \minus \pi \rpar r\rpar \minus \lpar 1 \minus \gamma \rpar a{c \over w} } \cr\tab\quad {\plus w^{\gamma \minus \setnum{1}} \bar{F}\lpar t\rpar c^{\setnum{1} \minus \gamma } \plus \xi f\hskip 1\lpar t\rpar } \bigg) \equals 0. \cr} $$As the bracket is a strictly concave function of (c, π), the zeros of the partial derivatives with respect to both π and c provide the unique point at which the maximum is attained. This leads to the following equations
which gives
Plugging in
into the bracket in (30) we arrive at
$$\eqalign{ \tab \minus \delta aw \plus a\prime w \plus {{\lpar 1 \minus {\rm \gamma }\rpar } \over 2}{{\lpar \mu \minus r\rpar ^{\setnum{2}} } \over {\gamma \sigma ^{\setnum{2}} }}aw \plus \lpar 1 \minus {\rm \gamma }\rpar aw\left( {r \plus {{\lpar \mu \minus r\rpar ^{\setnum{2}} } \over {\gamma \sigma ^{\setnum{2}} }}} \right) \cr \tab \minus \lpar 1 \minus {\rm \gamma }\rpar aw \cdot \left( {{{\bar{F}} \over a}} \right)^{\setnum{1}\sol {\rm \gamma }} \plus aw\left( {{{\bar{F}} \over a}} \right)^{\setnum{1}\sol {\rm \gamma }} \plus \xi\, f\hskip 1\lpar t\rpar w \equals 0. \cr} $$Hence
or
$$\eqalign{ \tab a\prime \lpar t\rpar \plus a\lpar t\rpar \chi \plus {\rm \gamma }a^{\setnum{1} \minus \setnum{1}\sol {\rm \gamma }} \lpar t\rpar \bar{F}^{\setnum{1}\sol {\rm \gamma }} \lpar t\rpar \plus \xi\, f\hskip 1\lpar t\rpar \equals 0\comma \cr \tab {\rm \chi } \equals {1 \over 2}{{\lpar 1 \minus {\rm \gamma }\rpar } \over {\rm \gamma }}{{\lpar \mu \minus r\rpar ^{\setnum{2}} } \over {\sigma ^{\setnum{2}} }} \minus \delta \plus \lpar 1 \minus {\rm \gamma }\rpar r. \cr} $$Expected Utility
The wealth process is given by
where A and D are defined in (24). As both A and D are non-random functions the random variable
has a normal distribution with expectation ν and variance τ2 given by
respectively. Consequently,
$$\openup4pt\eqalign{ EU_{\gamma } \lpar W_{t} \rpar \equals \tab {{w_{\setnum{0}}^{\setnum{1} \minus \gamma } } \over {1 \minus \gamma }}E\exp \lcub \lpar 1 \minus \gamma \rpar Z\rcub \cr \equals \tab {{w_{\setnum{0}}^{\setnum{1} \minus \gamma } } \over {1 \minus \gamma }}\int_{ \minus \infty }^{\infty } {\exp \lcub \lpar 1 \minus \gamma \rpar z\rcub } {1 \over {\sqrt {2\pi } }}\exp \left\{ { \minus {{\lpar z \minus \nu \rpar^2 } \over {2\tau ^{\setnum{2}} }}} \right\}dz \cr \equals \tab \exp \left\{ {\lpar 1 \minus \gamma \rpar \nu \plus {1 \over 2}\lpar 1 \minus \gamma \rpar ^{\setnum{2}} \tau ^{\setnum{2}} } \right\}. \cr} $$Hence with ν and τ2 from (32)
