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An Improved Method of Automated Nonparametric Content Analysis for Social Science

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  07 January 2022

Connor T. Jerzak
Affiliation:
Ph.D. Candidate and Carl J. Friedrich Fellow, Department of Government, Harvard University, 1737 Cambridge Street, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA. E-mail: cjerzak@g.harvard.edu, URL: https://ConnorJerzak.com
Gary King*
Affiliation:
Albert J. Weatherhead III University Professor, Institute for Quantitative Social Science, Harvard University, 1737 Cambridge Street, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA. URL: https://GaryKing.org
Anton Strezhnev
Affiliation:
Assistant Professor, University of Chicago, Department of Political Science, 5828 S. University Avenue, Chicago, IL 60637, USA. E-mail: astrezhnev@uchicago.edu, URL: https://antonstrezhnev.com
*
Corresponding author Gary King
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Abstract

Some scholars build models to classify documents into chosen categories. Others, especially social scientists who tend to focus on population characteristics, instead usually estimate the proportion of documents in each category—using either parametric “classify-and-count” methods or “direct” nonparametric estimation of proportions without individual classification. Unfortunately, classify-and-count methods can be highly model-dependent or generate more bias in the proportions even as the percent of documents correctly classified increases. Direct estimation avoids these problems, but can suffer when the meaning of language changes between training and test sets or is too similar across categories. We develop an improved direct estimation approach without these issues by including and optimizing continuous text features, along with a form of matching adapted from the causal inference literature. Our approach substantially improves performance in a diverse collection of 73 datasets. We also offer easy-to-use software that implements all ideas discussed herein.

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Type
Article
Copyright
© The Author(s) 2022. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of the Society for Political Methodology
Figure 0

Figure 1 Summary schematic of readme.

Figure 1

Figure 2 Summary schematic of the quantification-targeted text processing in readme2.

Figure 2

Figure 3 Summary schematic of readme2. See Figure 3 for details of step (2). The matching step is done prior to the formation of $\underline {X}^L$.

Figure 3

Table 1 Alternative evaluation designs.

Figure 4

Figure 4 The proportion of corpora with higher error than our approach (vertically) by quantile in proportion divergence (horizontally), with 32 different methods color-coded by type (described in the text, with feature space “D” for discrete and “C” for continuous).

Figure 5

Figure 5 Average error reduction: readme to readme2, in analyses of 50 subsets of each of the 73 datasets. The length of each arrow indicates the change in performance, with downward arrows indicating how SAE is reduced by our new methodology. Colored arrows refer to the four publicly available datasets, three of which were used in Hopkins and King (2010).

Figure 6

Figure 6 Average error reduction by simulation design, relative to readme (left panel) and to 32 alternative methods (right panel). The simulation marked Empirical in both is the one described above in the text; the others are described in Table 1. Items above the dotted horizontal line in both panels indicate that readme2 reduced SAE compared to a competing method. The gray horizontal line for each set of simulations in the right panel is the median. (“P.D.” stands for “Proportion Divergence”; “S.C.” stands for “Semantic Change”; “L.” stands for “Labeled”; “U” stands for “Unlabeled.”)

Figure 7

Figure 7 Comparison of readme2 results from different word embeddings. For comparison, “Random” displays the maximum absolute correlations we would obtain with 20 randomly generated features.

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