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Pricing insurance policies with offsetting relationship

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  17 September 2021

Hamza Hanbali*
Affiliation:
Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics, Monash University, Clayton VIC 3800, Australia
*
*Corresponding author. E-mail: hamza.hanbali@monash.edu
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Abstract

This paper investigates the benefits of incorporating diversification effects into the pricing process of insurance policies from two different business lines. The paper shows that, for the same risk reduction, insurers pricing policies jointly can have a competitive advantage over those pricing them separately. However, the choice of competitiveness constrains the underwriting flexibility of joint pricers. The paper goes a step further by modelling explicitly the relationship between premiums and the number of customers in each line. Using the total collected premiums as a criterion to compare the competing strategies, the paper provides conditions for the optimal pricing decision based on policyholders’ sensitivity to price discounts. The results are illustrated for a portfolio of annuities and assurances. Further, using non-life data from the Brazilian insurance market, an empirical exploration shows that most pairs satisfy the condition for being priced jointly, even when pairwise correlations are high.

Information

Type
Original Research Paper
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2021. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of Institute and Faculty of Actuaries
Figure 0

Table 1. Values of the pure premiums per unit of benefits (i.e. $\pi_A$ and $\pi_B$ for $C_A=C_B=1$), the corresponding standard deviations, the ratio of the pure premiums and standard deviations (i.e. $\psi$ for $\zeta\gamma=1$), and the correlation coefficient $\rho$.

Figure 1

Figure 1 Premium loadings under joint pricing $\psi(n)$ in function of the proportion of term assurances n for four combinations of the benefits $C_A$ and $C_B$ and the reduction factor $\zeta$. The coefficient $\gamma$ is equal to $1.686$, such that the loading $\psi(n)$ from the MSD risk measure (black curve) is approximately equal to the loading from the value-at-risk at the confidence level $0.95$ (blue circles). The horizontal dashed lines are the stand-alone loadings $\psi_A$ and $\psi_B$, with $\psi_A<\psi_B$.

Figure 2

Figure 2 Relative difference of the total collected premiums with and without joint pricing in function of the proportion $w^d$ of market demand for term assurances (business line B) for different combinations of the reaction factors $q_A$ and $q_B$, where $C_B=10C_A$, $\zeta=0.5$, $\gamma=1.686$, and $k_A=k_B=10$. Positive (resp. negative) values indicate that joint pricing leads to higher (resp. lower) total collected premiums compared to stand-alone pricing.

Figure 3

Table 2. Business lines ordered based on the ratio $\psi=\sigma/\pi$, where the business line on the first row has the highest $\psi$. The first column corresponds to the identification code attributed by SUSEP. The second column contains the name of the business line translated to English from SUSEP website. The third column contains the rank of the business line in terms of total collected premiums at market level, where “1” is the highest.

Figure 4

Figure 3 Evolution of the aggregate losses over time for different business lines using the SES data set, expressed in million Brazilian Reals, where the business lines are identified by their SUSEP code (see Table 2).

Figure 5

Figure 4 Ratio $\psi=\frac{\sigma}{\pi}$, i.e. the standard deviation per unit of expected loss, for all business lines, where the business lines are identified by their SUSEP code (see Table 2).

Figure 6

Table 3. Assessment of the condition $b\rho<1$ for all pairs of business lines, identified by their SUSEP code (see Table 2). The symbol (+) indicates that there exists a competitiveness region for the corresponding pair (i.e. the condition $b\rho<1$ is satisfied). The symbol (–) indicates that there is no competitiveness region for the corresponding pair (i.e. the condition $b\rho<1$ is not satisfied).

Figure 7

Figure 5 Loaded premiums under joint pricing per unit of expected benefit in function of the proportion of contracts in business line B, i.e. $1+\psi(n)$, for two selected pairs of business lines. The dashed horizontal lines are the stand-alone prices $1+\psi_A$ and $1+\psi_B$. The dashed vertical line on the right panel is the critical threshold.