Increased Travel Risks

Travelling and harvesting on the land, water and sea ice is inherently dangerous and Inuit have long known about and coped with these risks. However, in recent years, changes in the climate have altered and in some cases increased the magnitude and frequency of hazards with which people have to deal. In particular, hunters are increasingly exposed to hazards associated with more variable and less predictable weather. The weather changes quickly with minimal warning, and it is difficult to forecast wind direction and the development of storms. These conditions have also been recorded in other northern locations (Krupnik and Jolly Reference Krupnik and Jolly2002; Simpson and others 2002; L'Heureux and others Reference L'Heureux, Mann, Cook, Gleason and Vose2004).

There is an increased occurrence of strong winds that now last for weeks at a time and are described as ‘constantly going’ (Alikamik Reference Alikamik2005). Less predictable weather, strong winds and severe storms make travel and harvesting difficult, if not impossible, and increasingly hazardous. ‘White-out’, niptiaktuk, conditions reduce visibility and travellers have been separated from their travel partners, lost, stranded, and have encountered hazards such as driving their snow machines over cliffs, a hazard that would be avoided in better visibility. In the past, people travelled by dog team and the dogs were able to navigate through reduced visibility, but today people are travelling faster by snow machine, often with limited supplies, and risk becoming lost and encountering hazards when visibility is poor. In the past, Inuit hunters relied on knowledge of the local environment to forecast and navigate weather events. Under changing climate conditions, however, harvesters explain that they are unable to read signs in the weather like they used to because the weather and seasonal changes no longer follow regular patterns.

Harvesters reported that they are increasingly faced with changing sea ice conditions in the autumn, winter, and spring. Some areas of sea ice, over which harvesters are accustomed to travel, are no longer stable and in some instances the ice has not formed. Even experienced harvesters have encountered hazards in what are thought to be safe travel areas. Greater variability, less predictable weather, and changing sea ice conditions make it difficult to know when conditions are suitable for travel and there is uncertainty among hunters about the safety of travel. In recent years, several travellers have been stranded, injured, forced to take alternative travel routes, and/or have lost or damaged equipment (for example snow machines breaking through the ice) due to unexpected changes in weather and sea ice conditions.

Compromised travel routes

Changes in the nature and timing of the spring melt, wind patterns, sea ice dynamics, and fluctuations in temperature have affected travel routes to hunting areas. The spring is a popular time for community members to travel on the land to ice fish at lakes and hunt musk-ox, and on the sea ice to hunt seals, ducks, and polar bears. However, in recent years the spring melt has happened earlier and more rapidly and this is making travel by snow machine more difficult and sometimes impossible. An elder and active hunter, recognised in the community for his knowledge of the weather and environment, explained that in the years that he has been travelling on the land the spring melt usually started in May and June and the snow would melt gradually from the top down. In the last five years the melting has started from underneath the surface of the snow, and although snow conditions appear to be good for travelling, they are not because there is so much moisture and water under the snow that snow machines can become easily stuck (Akoakhion Reference Akoakhion2005).

Rapid periods of melting have also caused rivers to flood, and lakes are becoming ‘slushy’ earlier which has affected travel routes on the land and spring ice fishing.

These observations are consistent with instrumental records in the western Arctic: an increase in the number of days with thaw (defined as a day with snow on the ground when the daily mean temperature is above −2°C (Brown Reference Brown2000) has been recorded over the past fifty years (Smith Reference Smith1998; Groisman and others 2003).

Later and incomplete sea ice freeze-up and earlier, more rapid break-up are also affecting access to hunting areas. Recorded fluctuations in surface air temperatures during fall and winter months over the past two decades in the western Canadian Arctic have delayed and sometimes prevented the sea ice around Ulukhaktok from completely freezing over, resulting in open water and thin ice in areas that harvesters expect to be safe for travel (Rigor and others Reference Rigor, Colony and Martin2000; Environment Canada 2007). Experienced hunters explain that after two or three days with very cold (below −30°C) temperatures in the late fall (November), the sea ice used to freeze over and although it was thin, it could support travel by snow machine. In the past decade, however, the sea ice is taking longer to freeze over and recently there have been years when there has been open water and/or very thin unstable temporary ice cover that is vulnerable to winds and current (Fig. 2).

Fig. 2.

Inuit hunter, Adam Kolouhok Kudlak, retrieves a ringed seal natiq from the open water lead aolagot near Holman Island Qikiktakyoak using an open water boat oinikhiot on 20 February 2009.

The speed and direction of the wind affects sea ice dynamics. Queen's Bay, where the community is located, faces southwest and a strong northeast wind is necessary to break up the sea ice, usually in the late spring. Northeast winds, however, are no longer exclusive to the spring and they have been experienced in recent years in the autumn and winter, resulting in later freeze-up, premature break-up and open water leads. Open water and unstable sea ice has made it more difficult for harvesters to reach autumn, winter, and spring hunting areas accessible by the sea ice. Harvesters must travel to other locations or take alternative travel routes that are often longer and require more time and fuel than the affected routes, and carry their own risks (for example land crossing) (see Current adaptive strategies).

Winds also affect sea ice break-up in the spring. Westerly winds have become more common in the spring which is a deviation from the usual pattern of east winds. In the spring of 2005, east winds broke up the ice in late May but the wind direction shifted to westerly winds which pushed the broken ice back into the community bays and prevented harvesters from travelling by boat. Harvesters were unable to access caribou harvesting grounds in Prince Albert Sound, Kangiryuaq until late in the fall. While these specific observations may be an aberration for the year, unpredictable wind patterns are increasingly being observed in the community indicating that a trend of changing wind patterns may be occurring.

Quality and availability of wildlife

Harvesters have observed changes in the quality and availability of some wildlife species important for subsistence. These changes are affecting subsistence and income driven activities that depend on quality wildlife products (for example sport hunting, food, furs for crafts and clothing). In the winter and spring of 2005, hunters observed a significant decline in the quality of ringed seals and in the number of young ringed seals caught (ringed seals are harvested in Ulukhaktok for their meat and pelts). The ringed seals harvested were extremely lean, the meat was often not suitable for human consumption, and the pelts held limited economic value. Although the community does not depend on seals for fuel, food, or income as they did in the past, seals are still harvested for dog food and a decline in the health of seals is interpreted as an indicator that the health of the ecosystem is under threat.

The quality of ringed seal meat and pelts improved later in the summers of 2005 and in 2006. However, harvesters report a continued decline in the number of young ringed seals harvested.

An experienced seal hunter in Ulukhaktok who has hunted and worked extensively on seal monitoring projects in the region for over three decades explains that when the sea ice breaks up early, as it has in recent years, it is quickly blown out into the ocean and many young seals and adult animals are removed from the area. As a result, there are fewer seals in locations where they are expected to be abundant (H. Wright, personal communication, 1 December 2008). Others have recorded poor seal health and a potential association with changing sea ice conditions. In 1998, for instance, Smith and Harwood (Reference Smith and Harwood2001) observed poor body conditions and short body lengths in a sample of neonate ringed seal pups in Prince Albert Sound (Ulukhaktok harvesting area). Although not defined, these conditions may have resulted from later birth dates or shortened lactation and consequent slower growth associated with the premature disruption of the land fast ice breeding habitat (Harwood and others Reference Harwood, Smith and Melling2000).

Beginning in the late 1970s, there has been a dramatic decline in the Peary caribou population on the Arctic islands. Caribou is an important and preferred source of meat in the community. Aerial surveys conducted by the government of the Northwest Territories (GNWT), found that the Minto Inlet caribou population (important to Ulukhaktok) declined from 4500 in 1980 to about 100 in 1993 (Nishi and Buckland Reference Nishi and Buckland2000). Recent warming has led to a dramatic increase in the number of days above freezing temperatures during the migration period for the caribou, and thawing and freezing of snow results in ice layers in the snow pack that hinder travel of caribou and make it more difficult for them to forage for food. The formation of ice layers that prevent caribou from accessing food has been identified as a key causal factor of the declines (Russell Reference Russell, Armstrong and Brodzik2007). Peary caribou are now listed as an endangered species in Canada, a species that faces imminent extirpation or extinction. In 1993, harvesters in Ulukhaktok implemented a voluntary five year moratorium on hunting Peary caribou from the Minto Inlet population. That moratorium ended in 1998 and is now reviewed annually, but since 1993 Ulukhaktok harvesters have only hunted caribou from the Dolphin-Union caribou population on the south part of Victoria Island (NWT Wildlife 2007). This requires travelling long distances by boat which limits who is able to participate in the harvest based on access to a boat, fuel, and time.

Extra precautions

Community members often respond to climate related hazards by adjusting their behaviour without any pre-planned strategy (reactive). Harvesters react to increased variability and unpredictability in climate conditions, such as the occurrence of a storm or a sudden spring melt, by drawing on their knowledge of the local environment and the resources available to them to cope with the disturbance. For example, harvesters have coped with the onset of sudden storms by drawing on their knowledge of the local geography to find refuge and set up camp, have unexpectedly altered travel routes to avoid hazardous trail conditions, and have switched species harvested when necessary.

Reactive courses of action serve short term needs but have also contributed to the development of longer term proactive adaptations. Drawing on past experiences coping with climatic risks, harvesters are increasingly anticipating the possibility of encountering hazards when travelling on the land and sea ice, and are taking extra precautions to avoid and/or be prepared to cope with emerging risks. These precautions include: taking extra time to read environmental signs and local weather reports before travelling; travelling with extra supplies (for example gas, fuel, food, tent, etc.); travelling closer to the community when there is the potential for an early spring melt; travelling in groups; leaving travel itineraries with people in the community in case they encounter hazardous conditions and require assistance; and travelling with a VHF radio, satellite phone and/or GPS. There are several incidences of harvesters being stranded due to rapidly changing conditions (for example caribou hunters stranded in Prince Albert Sound because of bad weather or moving sea ice), but because they carried extra food, fuel and supplies they were able to cope with the situation and wait for conditions to improve before returning safely to the community. In other cases, having a VHF radio or satellite phone has enabled travellers, who became stuck in melting conditions, to contact people in the community for assistance.

Alternative transportation and travel routes

Harvesters have adapted to compromised travel routes to hunting areas by adjusting their modes of transportation, travel routes, and hunting locations. For example, in the event of an early break-up or late freeze-up (when travel on the sea ice by snow machine is not feasible) harvesters who have access to alternative transportation equipment have adapted and now travel to hunting areas by all terrain vehicles (ATV) or boat. Harvesters usually switch from travelling by ATV to snow machine in approximately mid October; however, in the past few years due to late snowfall, harvesters have been travelling inland by ATV until late November. The down side to this change is that it is more difficult to pull a sled, alliak behind an ATV and it cannot carry as much weight as it could if it were being pulled by a snow machine. In the marine environment motorised boats are becoming increasingly important for adapting to changing sea ice conditions and are being used to access hunting areas in the spring (for example duck hunting) and autumn (for example caribou hunting). The ocean around Ulukhaktok is often rough due to the prevalence of wind and boating can be a dangerous mode of transportation. Furthermore, hunting ducks from a boat is more difficult than by snow machine and requires more fuel.

As a result of later sea ice freeze-up, harvesters are changing their travel routes. For instance, harvesters are travelling inland by snow machine rather than on the sea ice to reach caribou hunting areas in Prince Albert Sound. This route is not as desirable as moving on the sea ice because it is longer and more rugged. Similarly, as a result of more open water during the winter and spring, hunters have been forced to change their travel routes to key polar bear hunting areas. To hunt polar bears around Nelson Head, an important polar bear hunting area, hunters used to travel by snow machine across the sea ice in the Amundsen Gulf from Ulukhaktok to Banks Island. Within the past decade, this travel route has not been possible because the sea ice has not completely frozen over. To reach Nelson Head, harvesters have had to travel longer distances up the coast of Victoria Island, cross the sea ice in the Prince of Wales Strait Ikirahak near Ramsey Island to Banks Island and then travel along the coast of Banks Island to Nelson Head. This route takes longer and requires more fuel, and some hunters have opted to hunt in alternative locations. Several hunters do not have access to the transportation equipment or fuel needed for travelling via alternative routes, and others do not possess the environmental knowledge or land skills important for navigating new routes. This limits who is able to adapt to changing sea ice conditions and continue to participate in subsistence hunting.

Food sharing

Harvesters often share country foods with other people in the community. For example, in July 2005, a hunter was fortunate to harvest a lone Peary caribou. Upon returning to the community, the hunter divided the animal into separate portions and distributed them to 22 households in the community. Similarly, when a community member harvested a beluga whale qilalugaq (Delphinapterus leucas) during the same month, they also distributed the whale meat, maktaq throughout the community. This form of sharing payuktuq (the giving or carrying of food, whether fresh or cooked, to another individual or household) is documented by Collings and others (Reference Collings, Wenzel and Condon1998) to be the most frequent type of food sharing practiced in Ulukhaktok. Food sharing relationships have a long history in Inuit society, and as in the past, food sharing networks continue to help people cope during times when country foods are less abundant. An interviewee describes the importance of food sharing.

Food sharing provides community members with country foods in spite of factors that may affect their involvement in harvesting including changing climatic conditions. Food sharing is also part of a greater emotional and social bond that is built among individuals and which is important for a healthy community. Some respondents, however, report that food sharing networks are not functioning as they did in the past. Food sharing is now more restricted to within family units. A detailed analysis of food sharing networks in the community is needed to understand better the distribution process in the context of continuing social and environmental changes.

Change in diet

Most community members supplement their diet, to varying degrees, with store bought foods. For many Inuit, however, store bought foods are not an equal trade off for country foods. Store bought foods are considered to be less satisfying, not as desirable, and more expensive. This finding is consistent with research on Inuit dietary beliefs and attitudes (Condon Reference Condon, Collings and Wenzel1995; Wenzel Reference Wenzel1995; Wein and others Reference Wein, Freeman and Makus1996; Collings and others Reference Collings, Wenzel and Condon1998). As described in Collings and others (Reference Collings, Wenzel and Condon1998) and substantiated in community interviews, country foods are preferred because they are healthier, fresher, and therefore better tasting and more satisfying, and less expensive than store foods. A respondent who is faced with purchasing more store bought foods to feed his or her family due to a combination of factors including less time to participate in harvesting activities due to employment, increased costs associated with harvesting (for example equipment and fuel), and changing climate conditions, describes what it is like not to have country (native) foods.

The collection and consumption of country foods is also important to cultural identity. The importance lies in the activity of harvesting, spending time with family members, the fulfilment, status, and self-esteem associated with the harvest and also in the sharing of country foods.

Adaptation success in this case is a matter of perspective and, although it is feasible that a community household could survive on store bought foods, it is not a desirable option for many community members, and has broad social, cultural, and health and nutritional implications. This highlights the importance of engaging local peoples in adaptation planning to ensure that policies reflect the values and needs of the community.

Access to capital resources

Harvesters depend on mechanised modes of transportation to access hunting areas. Snow machines have all but replaced dog teams as the primary mode of transportation in the winter and spring, ATVs are the vehicle of choice for travel on the land in the summer and autumn, and motorised boats are used on the ocean. Mechanised transportation allows harvesters to access hunting areas beyond the limited zone imposed by fixed settlements. In some instances, changing trail conditions have made it necessary for harvesters to switch their mode of transportation and travel longer distances to access hunting areas. Transportation technology, however, is expensive to purchase, maintain and operate, and the price of fuel has increased dramatically in recent years (the price of petroleum in Ulukhaktok was $1.77 CDN/litre on 26 November 2008). This limits who is able to participate in harvesting, a problem that is exacerbated by emerging climatic changes.

Community members face significant challenges in obtaining capital resources including a limited number of wage jobs, lack of qualifications, and nepotism in the local workforce. Several adults who moved from a subsistence lifestyle on the land into the permanent settlement have limited formal education and even though they often possess the necessary skills, they are not academically qualified for many wage jobs that require a high school education. In 2004, 49% of adult community members had less than a high school education (NWT Statistics 2006). Furthermore, some high school graduates in Ulukhaktok have been assessed at education levels much lower than their granted grade twelve diploma; as a result, these individuals do not have the credentials to pursue higher education or to obtain skilled employment in the community without additional upgrading. Concerns about the standard of education provided in communities in the Canadian Arctic are well documented (Irwin Reference Irwin1989; Berger and Epp Reference Berger and Epp2005; Johansson and others Reference Johansson, Paci, Stenersen-Hovdenak, Einarsson, Larsen, Nilsson and Young2005).

In some cases, community members choose not to seek employment, a consequence of the NWT housing rental policy that bases rent on an assessment of household income (33% of household income goes towards rent) (NWT Housing 2006). Depending on their income level renters can pay up to $2,617 CDN per month for a four bedroom rental house whereas renters who receive income support only pay $32.00 CDN per month (NWT Housing 2009). Some community members lack the incentive to seek employment because a large percentage of their income will go to paying rent, a cost they can avoid by not working. These factors affect participation in harvesting and constrain adaptations that require capital resources.

A regional scale programme, the Inuvialuit harvesters assistance program (IHAP) responds to this need and provides some Inuit with funding to purchase harvesting equipment. Preference is given to Inuvialuit subsistence harvesters engaged in harvesting activities and showing demonstrated need for programme support to continue or start harvesting and, those harvesting applicants that regularly involve youth in their traditional harvesting activities (IRC and IGC 2001). For the IHAP a subsistence harvester is defined as an Inuvialuit harvester who is either currently or has been within the last three years, active for six or more months of the year in hunting, fishing and trapping activities for subsistence purposes (IRC AND IGC, 2001). Applicants to IHAP are eligible to receive up to $5000 CDN once every three years towards the purchase of new harvesting equipment. IHAP is not directed at adaptation to climate change, but builds household capacity to participate in harvesting. In Ulukhaktok, IHAP has provided successful applicants with the economic means to purchase new transportation equipment, which has enabled them to continue to harvest, and in some cases be better equipped to deal with changing conditions. Four interviewees identified IHAP funding as essential for their households to be able to participate in subsistence. One couple that has three children explain that IHAP funding enabled them to purchase a new snow machine and they are now once again able to travel in the winter and spring to go fishing and duck hunting. However, several respondents commented that the allocation of IHAP in the community is plagued by nepotism and funds were not necessarily being allocated to individuals who met the programme's definition of ‘subsistence harvester’ (defined above). Addressing this concern to ensure that IHAP funds are allocated to subsistence harvesters and then potentially expanding the IHAP programme to assist more harvesters are practical initiatives that would support involvement in harvesting under changing conditions.

Availability of time

Some community members balance harvesting with the wage employment necessary for generating income to purchase harvesting equipment, supplies, and fuel. Employment, however, also constrains the timing and duration of harvesting activities. Unpredictable weather patterns and increasingly compromised travel routes have made it difficult to plan when to travel on the land, and employment obligations further limit when harvesters can travel. Consequently, some employed harvesters, although well equipped for harvesting, are spending less time harvesting and are making shorter, rushed trips to travel when conditions are not considered optimal. Three male respondents who have full time wage employment in the community explain that because of employment obligations they are spending less time harvesting than they did prior to working in the wage sector. When asked whether they used their days off and vacation time to harvest, each respondent replied that while they did use some of their time off for harvesting, they most often spent their days off relaxing in the community. Two of these respondents said that they sometimes choose not to travel on their days off because of uncertainty if they would make it back to the community in time for their next work day. Employment acts as both an aid to adaptation by providing access to a needed source of income, but it can also constrain adaptation by limiting the timing and duration of harvesting activities. An analysis of the relationship between employment and participation in subsistence harvesting is available in Condon and others (Reference Condon, Collings and Wenzel1995).

Traditional knowledge and land skills

Inuit capacity to deal with variable environmental conditions has long been facilitated by traditional environmental knowledge and land skills. The term ‘traditional knowledge’ is defined as a cumulative body of knowledge, practice and values, which have been acquired through experience, observation from the land or from spiritual teachings, and handed down from one generation to another (Huntington Reference Huntington1998; Berkes Reference Berkes1999; Government of the Northwest Territories 2005). Traditional knowledge is dynamic, continually evolving and being updated, and has evolved in this context to manage changing climatic conditions, including unpredictability and extremes. Hunters manage the risks associated with hunting by taking precautions, knowing what equipment to take along and what preparations to make, and being sensitive to critical signs in the environment and knowing how to respond. Knowledge of animal behaviour enables hunters to adapt to changing animal numbers and location.

Traditionally, knowledge and skills were developed and transmitted through on-the-land education or ‘people's practical engagement with the environment. . .’ (Ingold and Kurttila Reference Ingold and Kurttila2000), and from listening to and learning from elders and other experienced individuals. In traditional Inuit education, learning and living were the same thing, and knowledge, judgment and skill could never be separated (Nunavik Education Task Force 1992). However, community members are concerned that the traditional modes of intergenerational knowledge transfer and learning by which Inuit have developed the skills to hunt safely and successfully no longer function effectively. Elders and other experienced community members together with community educators, point to the potential loss of land based skills coupled with lack of workplace relevant skills among the growing population of young Inuit (49% of the population in Ulukhaktok is under the age of 25 (NWT Statistics 2006)). Youth are spending considerably less time involved in traditional subsistence activities beyond organised land camps and occasional hunting trips but comparatively more time engaged in formal education and wage employment. Adult community members are concerned that youth are not learning the land skills necessary for safe and successful harvesting, particularly in light of the changes they are experiencing in the climate and environment.

It is widely accepted in the community that some form of formal education is necessary and beneficial; however, there is strong support for youth to receive a more balanced education between formal school teachings and land based skills. It is not expected that youth should return to the traditional lifestyle that their elders lived, but there is an expressed need for youth to have sufficient knowledge of the land and harvesting activities if the values and benefits integral to a subsistence lifestyle are to be carried forward to future generations.

Substance abuse

Substance abuse was identified as a major stress affecting the community. Although there is no legal distributor of alcohol in Ulukhaktok, community members can order alcohol from Yellowknife or Inuvik as freight. Drugs, primarily marijuana, is also readily accessible in the community. Substance abuse has led to addictions, health problems (for example foetal alcohol syndrome), family violence, child neglect, and the disruption of social networks.

At the time of the research the drug and alcohol counsellor, wellness worker and mental health worker positions in the community were vacant, and if needed, community members had to fly to Inuvik for these services. These wellness positions often go through rapid rotations of southern workers and some positions go unfilled for years at a time. Addictions and lack of support services have left some community members more susceptible to stresses associated with substance abuse, and consequently ill prepared to deal with challenges that may arise from climate change, sapping both their material resources and impairing decision making (for example money is spent on drugs and alcohol instead of on needed harvesting equipment, supplies, fuel, or food and in some cases harvesting equipment has been traded for drugs and/or alcohol).

Future exposure sensitivities

Depending on the model and forcing scenario used, the average warming in the Arctic is projected to range from about 2°C to about 9°C by the year 2100. The projected warming is largest in the autumn and winter, and is largest over the polar oceans in areas of sea ice loss (Anisimov and others Reference Anisimov, Vaughan, Callaghan, Furgal, Marchant, Prowse, Vilhjalmsson, Walsh, Parry, Canziani, Palutikof, Linden and Hanson2007). A study based on the IPCC model simulations and scenarios, projects mean reductions of annually averaged sea ice area in the Arctic by 2080–2100 of between 22% and 33% depending on the atmospheric greenhouse gas loading scenario used (Zhang and Walsh Reference Zhang, Chen and Riseborough2006). Other studies project an ice free Arctic ocean in September within this century (Stroeve and others Reference Stroeve, Holland, Meier, Scambos and Serreze2007). Climate models generally agree that likely impacts of future warming will also include changes in the timing and duration of the spring melt season (Rigor and others Reference Rigor, Colony and Martin2000), increased precipitation (Kattsov and others Reference Kattsov, Walsh, Chapman, Govorkova, Pavolova and Zhang2007), later freeze-up and earlier break-up of river and lake ice (Walsh Reference Walsh and Symon2005) and an increased frequency of extreme weather and storm events (Kattsov and Kallen Reference Kattsov, Kallen and Symon2005). These projections, although not inclusive of all possible changes that may occur as a result of climate change, present a range of possible future risks for arctic communities. Table 4 outlines some potential implications of future climatic changes in Ulukhaktok based on current community-identified exposure sensitivities.

Table 4.

Future climate change projections and possible future exposure-sensitivities.

Projected reductions in sea ice cover, more unstable sea ice conditions (for example thin ice), and trends toward later freeze-up and earlier break-up would probably continue to exacerbate risks associated with travel on the sea ice, compromise travel routes to hunting areas, and affect the health and availability of some wildlife species. Some species of marine wildlife that are harvested by Ulukhaktok hunters, specifically ringed seals and polar bear, are expected to be negatively affected by projected increases in precipitation and changes in sea ice (Loeng Reference Loeng and Symon2005; Laidre and others Reference Laidre, Stirling, Lowry, Wiig, Heide-Jørgensen and Ferguson2008). A study of the ringed seal population around Ulukhaktok documented that even a very local, small scale, premature disruption of the land fast breeding habitat has significant negative impacts on the growth, condition and survival of unweaned pups (Harwood and others Reference Harwood, Smith and Melling2000). Progressively warmer temperatures in spring will cause seal birth lairs to melt earlier, exposing pups at increasingly earlier ages to predation and freeze thaw cycles similar to those recorded by Stirling and Smith (Reference Stirling and Smith2004). Projected increases in precipitation in the spring are expected to result in more frequent and widespread collapses of subnivean birth lairs, the mortality of ringed seal pups will increase and local populations may be significantly reduced. As ringed seals are the primary prey of polar bears, a significant decline in ringed seal populations, especially in the production of young, is capable of having negative effects on the health of polar bears (Stirling and Parkinson Reference Stirling and Parkinson2006).

Polar bear hunting is an important activity in Ulukhaktok for subsistence and as a source of income. Several hunters in Ulukhaktok derive a large portion of their income from guiding and helping on sport hunts for polar bear. Climate and political changes, however, have implications for polar bears and the sport hunting industry in the Canadian Arctic. The health of the polar bear as a species under future climate change projections is in question. Stirling and Parkinson (Reference Stirling and Parkinson2006) and Stirling and others (Reference Stirling, Lunn and Iacozza1999) documented a significant positive relationship between the time of sea ice break-up and the condition of adult female polar bears (that is the earlier the break-up, the poorer the condition of the bears). Strong positive relationships between the time of sea ice break-up and freeze-up have also been documented by Derocher and others (Reference Derocher, Lunn and Stirling2004), who found that reduced sea ice has led to reduced reproductive rates. Scientists have expanded these findings to the whole circumpolar Arctic and suggest that polar bears are threatened as a species if future sea ice projections of a complete disappearance of sea ice in the Arctic Ocean during the summer, come true (Derocher and others Reference Derocher, Lunn and Stirling2004). Dyck and others (Reference Dyck, Soon, Baydack, Legates, Baliunas, Ball and Hancock2007), however, warn that claims for the fate of polar bears are highly premature. They challenge the skilfulness of climate models to project sea ice changes and argue that alternative factors including, increased human-bear interaction, natural population dynamics, and variability of the Arctic ice, ocean and atmosphere that occur naturally on decadal to multi-decadal time scales must be taken into account in a more realistic study and explanation of the population ecology of polar bears.

Together with climate change, political changes threaten the polar bear sport hunting industry in the Canadian Arctic. Despite assurances from Inuit and wildlife biologists in the NWT and Nunavut that most polar bear populations are healthy and in some regions increasing, the United States government has decided to list polar bears as a threatened species under its endangered species act because of the effects of climate change. The endangered species designation bans all polar bears products from being imported to the US, including the trophy hides that most sport hunters seek, essentially shutting down the American component of the Canadian polar bear sport hunting industry. The implications of this ban on Inuit hunters has yet to be determined.

Access to income

Adaptations that necessitate economic responses (for example extra fuel, alternative mode of transportation, purchasing food from stores) could be supported by developing income generating opportunities. Efforts have been made and are currently underway in Ulukhaktok to provide community members who are seeking employment with additional skills training and greater educational opportunities. Programmes include education in the community extending to grade 12, and courses at the local Aurora College campus that focus on skills training pertinent to current employment opportunities in the community and region (for example exploration geology, oil and gas industry, driver's licence, small business operation, environmental monitoring). As a result of these efforts, more community members are obtaining their high school education which should make them eligible for more employment opportunities, and community members are obtaining job related skills that allow them to work on projects such as mineral exploration. Despite these advancements in training respondents express the need to offer more programmes that are of interest to community members beyond those provided by current industrial interests (for example mineral exploration and oil and gas development), and that meet the educational competency standards necessary for students to pursue post-secondary education. Some respondents, including local educators and high school graduates, call for educational reform to develop a curriculum that meets both southern educational requirements and also includes traditional knowledge, land skills, Inuinnaqtun language, and cultural values that are important to the community. They argue that if education had a better balance between southern curriculum and traditional knowledge and land skills, more people would value the opportunities education presents and more fully engage in educational pursuits.

Potential future resource development (mining and/or oil and gas development) would certainly influence future vulnerability. Increases in individual incomes, seasonal employment patterns, greater exposure to outside cultures, and divisions in the community between those in favour of development and those opposed are potential factors to consider, the implications of which have been documented elsewhere in the Canadian Arctic (Brubacher and Associates 2002). Currently there is no resource extraction activity near the community, but two companies, Great Northern Mining and Exploration and DeBeers are actively exploring Inuvialuit lands on Victoria Island for precious metals and diamonds and the Mackenzie Valley gas project is currently under review.

Flexibility

There is some uncertainty when discussing future climate change projections but community members recognise that continued flexibility and ingenuity will play central roles in future adaptation.

Flexibility may be expressed in an individual's ability to use alternative modes of transportation and alternative travel routes to access hunting areas, and/or change the timing and location of harvesting as well as the species of wildlife harvested. Knowledge of the local environment and land skills influence how harvesters respond and adapt to changing environmental conditions. These skills are honed through consistent interaction with the environment. Programmes that support participation in harvesting activities and the transmission of environmental knowledge and land skills to youth are important for ensuring that younger generations have the opportunity to learn and practice these skills. Additional support for land programmes operated by the school, hamlet and Canadian rangers, and for programmes that connect elders with youth would contribute to the transmission of knowledge and skills and build capacity among younger generations to cope with and adapt to changing environmental conditions.

Flexibility may also be found at the institutional level in terms of comanagement bodies that facilitate communication between the community, the regional Inuvialuit government, the territorial government and the federal government. Membership in comanagement bodies such as the fisheries joint management committee (FJMC), and the wildlife management advisory council (WMAC) provide Ulukhaktok with access to scientific information and additional resources to address issues affecting the system or species of interest. The ability of these institutions to be flexible and include climate change impacts and projections in environmental and other assessments and to be innovative in their response strategies, will contribute to adaptive capacity to deal with future climate change.