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Quantitative Triage and Cumulative Risk in Neonatal Intensive Care Unit Evacuation: A Simulation Study Using Real-World Clinical Data

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  06 October 2026

Kazunori Imai*
Affiliation:
Department of Acute Care and Disaster Medicine, Nagoya City University Graduate School of Medical Sciences and Medical School, Nagoya, Japan Department of Pediatrics and Neonatology, Nagoya City University Graduate School of Medical Sciences and Medical School, Nagoya, Japan
Chunxi Xu
Affiliation:
Graduate School of Information Sciences, Tohoku University, Sendai, Japan
Shoya Oikawa
Affiliation:
Graduate School of Information Sciences, Tohoku University, Sendai, Japan
Yuko Araki
Affiliation:
Graduate School of Information Sciences, Tohoku University, Sendai, Japan
Shinji Saitoh
Affiliation:
Department of Pediatrics and Neonatology, Nagoya City University Graduate School of Medical Sciences and Medical School, Nagoya, Japan
Osuke Iwata
Affiliation:
Department of Pediatrics and Neonatology, Nagoya City University Graduate School of Medical Sciences and Medical School, Nagoya, Japan
*
Corresponding author: Kazunori Imai Department of Acute Care and Disaster Medicine Nagoya City University, Graduate School of Medical Sciences 1-Kawasumi, Mizuho-cho, Mizuho-ku Nagoya, Aichi, JAPAN, ZIP 467-8602 E-mail: k.imai@med.nagoya-cu.ac.jp
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Abstract

Introduction:

Neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) evacuation poses distinct operational and ethical challenges because neonates often depend on continuous life-sustaining technologies and specialized care. Although several neonatal or pediatric disaster triage systems have been proposed, actual NICU evacuation cannot be ethically or practically tested under controlled disaster conditions. A reproducible framework comparing evacuation-order strategies is therefore needed.

Study Objective:

This study aimed to develop and apply a reproducible simulation framework for NICU evacuation-order evaluation and, within that framework, to compare structured triage with evacuation without triage and quantitative with categorical neonatal triage approaches.

Methods:

A retrospective simulation study was conducted using routinely recorded clinical triage assessments from a tertiary NICU, comprising 1,079 patient evaluations in 162 neonates across 49 triage days. During clinical practice, clinical severity and triage status had been recorded using the Neonatal Therapeutic Intervention Scoring System (NTISS), Neonatal Extrication Triage (NEXT), and Simple Triage and Rapid Treatment for Neonates, Revised (START-Neo-R); NEXT was a quantitative six-domain resource-dependency score ranging from zero to 12, whereas START-Neo-R was a five-level categorical neonatal triage system. Three evacuation strategies were evaluated: descending-order evacuation using NEXT, descending-order evacuation using START-Neo-R, and evacuation without triage. Evacuation-order performance was quantified using the Total Evacuation Score (TES), defined as the time integral of cumulative NTISS scores among patients remaining in the NICU across sequential evacuation steps. The TES distributions were compared descriptively across strategies rather than inferentially.

Results:

Within the 49 observed triage days, both structured triage strategies generated TES distributions shifted lower than those from evacuation without triage. In the direct comparison between NEXT and START-Neo-R, the worst-case TES under NEXT was lower than more than one-half of the START-Neo-R TES distribution on 34 of the 49 observed triage days (69.4%).

Conclusion:

In this simulation study using real-world NICU data, TES provided a reproducible framework for comparing neonatal evacuation-order strategies under explicit assumptions. Within this TES-based framework, structured triage generated TES distributions shifted lower than those from evacuation without triage, and NEXT showed a more favorable distribution-based pattern than START-Neo-R on most observed days. These findings suggest that TES-based evaluation may help identify triage strategies that support more transparent and testable NICU evacuation planning.

Information

Type
Original Research
Creative Commons
Creative Common License - CCCreative Common License - BY
This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution and reproduction, provided the original article is properly cited.
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2026. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of World Association for Disaster and Emergency Medicine
Figure 0

Table 1. Neonatal Extrication TriageTable 1 long description.

Figure 1

Figure 1. Definition of the Total Evacuation Score (TES).Note: The TES measures the cumulative severity of illness of patients remaining in the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) during a simulated evacuation sequence. It is calculated by summing the total Neonatal Therapeutic Intervention Scoring System (NTISS) scores of all patients remaining in a particular unit at each sequential evacuation step. Lower TES values indicate earlier positioning of higher-acuity patients in the evacuation order under the equal-step assumption. Abbreviations: NICU, neonatal intensive care unit; NTISS, Neonatal Therapeutic Intervention Scoring System; TES, Total Evacuation Score.

Figure 2

Figure 2. Comparison of Total Evacuation Score (TES) Distributions.Note: The TES distributions for an evaluated strategy and a comparator are shown. The vertical line indicates the evaluated strategy’s worst-case TES. The highlighted portion of the comparator distribution at or below this line represents the pre-defined shaded-area probability: the proportion of comparator TES values that are equal to or more favorable than the evaluated strategy’s worst-case TES. The evaluated strategy is considered favorable under the pre-defined distribution-based criterion if the pre-defined shaded-area probability is <0.5. Abbreviation: TES, Total Evacuation Score.

Figure 3

Figure 3. Figure 3 long description.Distribution Patterns of Total Evacuation Scores (TES) Across Triage Days.Note: Panel A shows the comparison of structured triage (NEXT and START-Neo-R) with untriaged evacuation. Panels B-F display the five representative patterns observed when comparing the quantitative (NEXT) and categorical (START-Neo-R) triage systems, ranging from complete separation to varying degrees of overlap. Abbreviations: TES, Total Evacuation Score; NEXT, Neonatal Extrication Triage; START-Neo-R, Simple Triage and Rapid Treatment for Neonates, Revised.

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