The crisis across the Taiwan Strait in 1995–6, when China's missile firing was met with the U.S. dispatch of two aircraft carrier groups to the region, compelled a new look at the Taiwan issue by policy makers in the three capitals. Tension persisted through the Democratic Progressive Party presidency under Chen Shui-bian during 2000–2008. In the United States, these trouble-ridden years saw publication of several well-received books on the triangular relations surrounding the Taiwan issue. Historian Nancy Tucker caps off this literature with her latest book, but unlike other volumes her central concern is the U.S.-Taiwan dyadic interaction and “the mistrust that characterizes Washington's relations with Taipei” (p. 2). Mistrust is an elusive concept in international relations, whatever the type. But Tucker, a leading historian on U.S. diplomacy towards the People's Republic of China (PRC) and towards greater China, carefully demonstrates and recounts the mismatched style of diplomacy as well as incongruent expectations and interests. The sometimes erratic U.S. treatment of Taiwan contrasts sharply with the consistently high stakes of the Taiwan issue. Her study underscores the follies and the dangers of this approach to an issue that was a tinderbox in the cold war and continued to be at the crux of the U.S. rivalry with a rising, nuclear armed China after the cold war.
Tucker starts off with the Kuomintang's (KMT) arrival in Taiwan after its defeat in the civil war with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), without dwelling on the prior status of the island. A brief overview of the U.S. global strategy precedes each episode of America's Taiwan policy, setting the stage for the Taiwan drama. The PRC looms large, but it does not overwhelm her focus on the U.S.-Taiwan dyad. The result is an in-depth and critical inquiry into the diplomacy and politics of the tumultuous relations simultaneously buttressed by enduring ties and fraught with serious problems. She offers many insights into various dimensions of the familiar story, such as Taiwan's nuclear program in the context of U.S.-PRC relations, the unusual origins of President Ronald Reagan's “six reassurances,” the evolution of the U.S. “two Chinas” and one China policy, and the entanglement of domestic politics and debates over the PRC, particularly the congressional role, in U.S. policy.
Tucker's historical account gives us a clear sense of continuity and change in the Taiwan issue from the early years of the cold war to the first decade of the twenty-first century. In the past, the problem in U.S.-Taiwan relations primarily lay with differences over how to deal with the PRC. Suspicion and rancor were aggravated by insufficient consultation between Washington and Taipei. They were made even worse by lack of communication between mainland China and Taiwan, although covert dialogue existed intermittently. But today, much has changed in the cross-strait relations as integration was spurred with the KMT-CCP ties since 2005 and opening between the two sides under Ma Ying-jeou's presidency after May 2008. The new dynamics create possibilities for the United States to craft positive-sum relations with both parties across the Taiwan straits. But they also challenge Washington's traditional role as the pivot between the two sides.
In her account, even at the height of the Soviet threat, widely believed to be the key driver behind Mao's decision to draw closer to the United States, Chinese leaders were more fixated on Taiwan than on the Soviet Union. This raises doubts about China's sincerity and values in countering the Soviets, which was the rationale for the Kissinger-Nixon rapprochement with Mao's China. The primacy of Taiwan in Chinese calculations also explains what Tucker identifies as “the chronic contradictions in US-Taiwan relations” where “Taiwan could not be abandoned, but it could not be allowed to undermine relations with China or drag Washington into war” (p. 271). Decades later, Taiwan's importance to the PRC leadership has not diminished. In fact the current CCP leadership has identified defense of sovereignty over Taiwan as a “core interest.” Taiwan's centrality in China's security concern, coupled with China's growing regional and global importance, means addressing Taiwan's dilemma requires more than “direct interaction among top officials of Taiwan and the United States” as Tucker prescribes (p. 278). But, as the volume shows, better communication would be a necessary step, made even more urgent with the emerging new ties across the strait.
Tucker acknowledges that puzzles and uncertainties remain, as events are too recent and access to mainland Chinese archives is limited. Her study fills an important gap in our understanding of how Washington and Taipei have handled and mishandled their asymmetric relations. If as she shows, power, interests, and values have complicated past U.S. ties with Taiwan, they will do so even more in the future as illiberal China rises to global significance and Taiwan's democracy thrives. Policymakers are well advised to take seriously the many valuable lessons offered in this study. Its lucid presentation makes the deeply researched book an excellent primer for anyone interested in the topic. One hopes the recent issuance of a paperback edition will facilitate the book's general readership.
