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Data-driven bed rheology enhances retreat on Thwaites Glacier

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  20 May 2026

Emily Schwans*
Affiliation:
Department of Geoscience, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA
Byron Parizek
Affiliation:
Department of Geoscience, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA Mathematics and Geosciences, Penn State DuBois, DuBois, PA, USA
Richard B. Alley
Affiliation:
Department of Geoscience, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA
Sridhar Anandakrishnan
Affiliation:
Department of Geoscience, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA
Shujie Wang
Affiliation:
Department of Geography, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA Earth and Environmental Systems Institute, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA
*
Corresponding author: Emily Schwans; Email: eschwans92@gmail.com
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Abstract

Field data suggest that Thwaites Glacier’s bed is composed of alternating areas of hard and soft material with correlated topographic variations. Prior modeling shows that forced response differs strongly for simulations on endmember beds, suggesting that under some circumstances, a mosaicked bed can exhibit a response that falls outside endmembers. We explore the impact of spatially variable bed rheology draped on the measured topography beneath Thwaites under sustained sub-ice shelf melting. Experiments utilize the Ice-sheet and Sea-Level System Model to assign the basal sliding law exponent and associated friction coefficient on an element-wise basis. In mixed-rheology models, thinning is localized over harder basal topographic ridges (bedrock), with widespread drawdown over flatter areas comprising a softer material (deforming till). This dual dynamic signature creates rapid retreat under sustained forcing, as enhanced driving stresses over ridges upstream of extended areas of retrograde bed allow faster retreat across a more thinned catchment. For more moderate forcing that allows this pattern to develop, retreat can be faster than for either endmember bed. Findings indicate a need for additional data and more-informed inversions for basal friction in order to constrain and simulate basal conditions beneath Thwaites, thereby reducing uncertainty in predictive models of sea-level rise from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.

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Creative Commons
Creative Common License - CCCreative Common License - BY
This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution and reproduction, provided the original article is properly cited.
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2026. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of International Glaciological Society.
Figure 0

Figure 1. (a) MeASUREsv2 velocities (Rignot and others, 2017a) in our model domain (blue line with yellow markers) overlain on BEDMAP2 topography. Note that the relative location of (a) is shown on the inset map. Three key transverse ridges beneath Thwaites are highlighted, including GHOST ridge (near x = −1500 km), a second, middle ridge at approximately X = −1400 km, and a third, upper ridge farther inland extending between approximately x = −1350 to −1300 km; the initial grounding-line (bold black), ice-shelf extent (gray), and glacier catchment boundaries (navy), as well as the central flowline sampled in Figure 3 (cyan) are shown. (b) A topography transect along central flowline (cyan) shows areas of the bed (brown) that fulfill our ‘stoss’ criterion (yellow) for inversions.Figure 1 long description.

Figure 1

Figure 2. (a–b) Ice mass above flotation throughout the modeled period in Thwaites’ catchment (delineated in Figure. 1a by the solid blue line and corresponding domain-edge) using both sub-shelf melt conditions (a: 40 m a−1; b: 100 m a−1) for newly ungrounded elements within our main model ensemble. Insets show detail for selected portions of transients where ice mass begins to diverge. The green box designates where modeled rates of mass loss begin to be limited by our fixed flow conditions at the boundary of our domain (see Results section for details). (c–h) show centered-difference for ice mass above flotation for each homogeneous (blue) bed, our mixed18 (red) and either the corresponding hybrid bed for m1 and m8 (yellow, panels c–f) or mixed38 (yellow, panels g and h) throughout our transient run forced with 40 m a−1 sub-shelf melt rates beneath newly ungrounded ice. Note that runs are broken up into two panels each to better illustrate ice mass trends throughout these transients, with different y-scales as the transient progresses. Vertical lines coincide with the GL’s arrival at and departure from the highest point on each major ridge along our central flowline (Figure. 1a). Solid lines are for motion onto/off of GHOST, dashed lines for the middle ridge, and dash–dot lines for motion onto and off of the furthest-inland transverse ridge in Figure. 1a.Figure 2 long description.

Figure 2

Figure 3. (a–e) Surface-height progression along chosen central flowline over Thwaites (cyan line, Figure. 1a) under LSO forcing for each bed type. Legend designates model year for each respective profile. Flotation height is designated by the thin, lighter line, while each major bedrock ridge (Figure. 1) is demarcated with a solid vertical line. (f) A comparison of all surface profiles at the 300-year mark.Figure 3 long description.

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