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Persisting while changing over time: modelling the historical biogeographic of cave crickets (Orthoptera, Grylloidea) in Neotropics

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  09 January 2023

Rodrigo Antônio Castro-Souza*
Affiliation:
Laboratório de Macroecologia e Conservação da Biodiversidade, Departamento de Botânica e Ecologia, Instituto de Biociências, Universidade Federal de Mato Grosso, 78060-900, Cuiabá, MT, Brazil Centro de Estudos em Biologia Subterrânea, Departamento de Ecologia e Conservação, Universidade Federal de Lavras, 37200-900, Lavras, MG, Brazil
Thadeu Sobral-Souza
Affiliation:
Laboratório de Macroecologia e Conservação da Biodiversidade, Departamento de Botânica e Ecologia, Instituto de Biociências, Universidade Federal de Mato Grosso, 78060-900, Cuiabá, MT, Brazil
Lucas Mendes Rabelo
Affiliation:
Centro de Estudos em Biologia Subterrânea, Departamento de Ecologia e Conservação, Universidade Federal de Lavras, 37200-900, Lavras, MG, Brazil
Edison Zefa
Affiliation:
Departamento de Ecologia, Zoologia e Genética, Universidade Federal de Pelotas, Instituto de Biologia, 96001-970, Capão do Leão, RS, Brazil
Rodrigo Lopes Ferreira
Affiliation:
Centro de Estudos em Biologia Subterrânea, Departamento de Ecologia e Conservação, Universidade Federal de Lavras, 37200-900, Lavras, MG, Brazil
*
Author for correspondence: *Rodrigo Antônio Castro-Souza, Email: rodrigodesouzaac@gmail.com
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Abstract

Using species distribution modelling (SDMs) techniques, we predicted the biogeographic history of crickets commonly found in Neotropical caves as a way to detect potential long-term environmental refuges in South America. Our models were built based on a thorough investigation of existing database regarding the genus Endecous Saussure, 1878 (Ensifera: Phalangopsidae) occurrences. The predictions of their distribution were obtained for two paleoclimate scenarios (LGM — 21 ka and Mid-Holocene — 6 ka), the current climate scenario (0 ka) and one future global warming climate scenario (RCP8.5, 2080–2100). Our findings suggest that in the past, the potential distribution of the crickets was wider, with potential forest corridors connecting different karst areas with caves within their occupancy area. The future prediction indicates a drastic reduction in their spatial distribution with an increased potential for isolation in subterranean ecosystems. Atlantic humid forest patches and caves represent the main environmental refuges for these crickets. Considering the ongoing impacts on surface environments and future climate change, the conservation of caves and karst landscapes has become one of the main strategies for the maintenance of these crickets and all the correlated subterranean communities.

Information

Type
Research Article
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2023. Published by Cambridge University Press
Figure 0

Figure 1. Outline summarizing our methodological and analytical steps to predict the potential distribution of the genus Endecous Saussure, 1878. The first step consisted in compiling as much data as known for the distribution of the genus (a). Next, we filter the occurrence data, leaving only one presence point per grid (b). The third step consists of associating the occurrence sites (b), predictor environmental variables (c), and algorithms (d), to building models. For this, we use the method of Ensemble (e), which consists of superimposing the models for each algorithm, inside each AOGCM, for each time scenario investigated (e). Then consensus maps are built for the genus (f). Next, we use the Lowest Predicted Value Threshold (lpt) to create binary presence maps, as of the lowest predicted value on environmental suitability according to the occurrence sites. Finally, binary maps overlapped with categorical variables and occurrence sites of troglobitic species. In addition, we also overlap the binary maps in the four-scenario investigated to check possible areas climatically stable of the niche potential of Endecous.

Figure 1

Table 1. Results of varimax rotation factorial analysis, used for the selection of more explanatory variables among the 19 bioclimatic variables (Nix 1986, Hijmans et al.2005) for the construction of SDMs

Figure 2

Table 2. True Skill Statistic (TSS) values for each combination of algorithms and AOGCM for SDMs of the genus Endecous Saussure, 1878

Figure 3

Figure 2. Potential distribution for genus Endecous Saussure, 1878 during Last Glacial Maximum (21 ka), Mid-Holocene (6 ka), Current (0 ka) and Future (RCP8.5, 2080–2100). The models were overlapping with the main karst areas in South America, since most of the genus is facultative in caves. The colouring of the arrows represents the temperature rise in each scenario (cold ⇨ hot).

Figure 4

Figure 3. Potential distribution for genus Endecous Saussure, 1878 during Last Glacial Maximum (21 ka), Mid-Holocene (6 ka), Current (0 ka) and Future (RCP8.5, 2080–2100). The models were overlapping the main areas with the occurrence of caves from Brazil, since most known data in this study come from these environments. The colouring of the arrows represents the temperature rise in each scenario (cold ⇨ hot).

Figure 5

Figure 4. (a) Stability Consensus comparing different combinations between the four scenarios the potential distribution for genus Endecous Saussure, 1878. Legend: Last Glacial Maximum (21 ka), Mid-Holocene (6 ka), Current (0 ka) and Future (RCP8.5, 2080–2100); (b) Karst areas as a potential refuge from Species distribution models (SDMs) of the Endecous Saussure, 1878.

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