Hostname: page-component-74656f9884-8r8nv Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2026-11-07T14:53:58.779Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Optimally Stopping at a Given Distance from the Ultimate Supremum of a Spectrally Negative Lévy Process

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  17 March 2021

Mónica B. Carvajal Pinto*
Affiliation:
University of Manchester
Kees van Schaik*
Affiliation:
University of Manchester
*
*Postal address: Department of Mathematics, University of Manchester, Manchester, M13 9PL, UK. Email address: kees.vanschaik@manchester.ac.uk
*Postal address: Department of Mathematics, University of Manchester, Manchester, M13 9PL, UK. Email address: kees.vanschaik@manchester.ac.uk
Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

We consider the optimal prediction problem of stopping a spectrally negative Lévy process as close as possible to a given distance $b \geq 0$ from its ultimate supremum, under a squared-error penalty function. Under some mild conditions, the solution is fully and explicitly characterised in terms of scale functions. We find that the solution has an interesting non-trivial structure: if b is larger than a certain threshold then it is optimal to stop as soon as the difference between the running supremum and the position of the process exceeds a certain level (less than b), while if b is smaller than this threshold then it is optimal to stop immediately (independent of the running supremum and position of the process). We also present some examples.

Information

Type
Original Article
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2021. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of Applied Probability Trust
Figure 0

Figure 1: A plot of H and $f_a$ for several values of a for the bounded-variation process (4.1) with $c=0.5$, $\mu=1$, $\eta=1$, and $b=5$.

Figure 1

Figure 2: A plot of H and $f_a$ for several values of a for the unbounded-variation process (4.2) with $\sigma=1$, $c=0.5$, $\mu=1$, $\eta=1$, and $b=5$.