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Assessment of pathogen reduction strategies in reducing carbapenem-resistant Enterobacterales (CRE) transmission in acute-care hospitals: an agent-based model study

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  30 October 2026

Brajendra Kumar Singh*
Affiliation:
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention , Atlanta, USA
Joseph D. Lutgring
Affiliation:
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention , Atlanta, USA
Hannah Wolford
Affiliation:
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention , Atlanta, USA
Rany Octaria
Affiliation:
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention , Atlanta, USA Laboratoire ‘Modélisation et surveillance des risques pour la sécurité sanitaire’, Conservatoire national des Arts et Métiers, Paris, France
Natalie L. McCarthy
Affiliation:
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention , Atlanta, USA Medical Evidence Development, 21 Vaccines Real-world Evidence Epidemiology, Pfizer, Collegeville, PA, USA
Kelly M. Hatfield
Affiliation:
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention , Atlanta, USA
James Baggs
Affiliation:
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention , Atlanta, USA
Camden D. Gowler
Affiliation:
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention , Atlanta, USA
Prabasaj Paul
Affiliation:
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention , Atlanta, USA Robert Koch Institute, Berlin, Germany
Sujan C. Reddy
Affiliation:
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention , Atlanta, USA
Rachel B. Slayton
Affiliation:
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention , Atlanta, USA
*
Corresponding author: Brajendra Kumar Singh; Email: nka8@cdc.gov
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Abstract

Background:

Carbapenem-resistant Enterobacterales (CRE) infections are an urgent public health threat in the United States. Despite infection prevention and control measures, hospital CRE rates have not declined in the past decade. Novel drug-based pathogen reduction approaches may decrease CRE incidence, and mathematical models can assess implementation strategies.

Methods:

We used agent-based modeling to evaluate a hypothetical drug with pathogen reduction properties for reducing CRE transmission in an example acute-care hospital. We compared a strategy that treated only clinically detected CRE-colonized patients—using three drug effectiveness (DE) levels (25%, 50%, 75%)—with strategies that treated patients identified through surveillance screening in addition to clinical cultures. Surveillance screenings (intensive care unit (ICU) or all-admission screenings) were implemented at 50% and 100% patient participation (PP). Model parameters were informed by administrative healthcare data and published literature.

Results:

The baseline mean CRE colonization incidence was 27.4 per 10,000 patient-days (interquartile range [IQR]: 11.7–39.9). Compared to baseline, at DE = 25% the reduction in mean colonization incidence was 1.2% (−0.8%–3.2%) for the treatment-only strategy. At DE = 50%, treatment + ICU screening reduced incidence by 9.0% (7.1%–11.0%) at PP = 50% and 13.2% (11.4%–15.1%) at PP = 100%. The reduction reached 38.5% (37.1%–40.0%) for treatment + all-admission screening at DE = 75% and PP = 100%.

Conclusions:

This study underscores the potential of novel drugs as pathogen reduction measures to reduce CRE incidence in US hospitals if deployed strategically. Findings highlight the value of developing pathogen reduction strategies for colonized patients to prevent CRE transmission and infections.

Information

Type
Original Article
Creative Commons
Creative Common License - CCCreative Common License - BY
This is a work of the US Government and is not subject to copyright protection within the United States. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of The Society for Healthcare Epidemiology of America.
This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution and reproduction, provided the original article is properly cited.
Copyright
© The Society for Healthcare Epidemiology of America, 2026
Figure 0

Table 1. Scenarios/strategies examined in this studyTable 1 long description.

Figure 1

Figure 1. Flow diagram showing patient carbapenem-resistant Enterobacterales (CRE) state transitions. The diagram illustrates the states for a patient within the hospital: non-colonized (susceptible), colonized with CRE (not detected), detected colonized (identified via surveillance), or having an active CRE infection (identified via a clinical culture). Solid arrows indicate the primary pathways. Non-colonized patients could acquire CRE from the contaminated hands of healthcare personnel (HCP), becoming colonized. A colonized patient could then be identified through surveillance, moving to the “detected colonized” state, or they could develop an infection and be identified by a CRE-positive clinical culture. Patients who recover from an active infection also transition to the “detected colonized” state. Colonized patients could lose colonization spontaneously; loss of colonization is depicted by solid arrows for undetected colonized patients and dash-dotted arrows for detected colonized patients likely to receive the drug. Patients with clinical cultures positive for CRE and detected colonized patients were placed under contact precautions (dotted rectangles). The effectiveness of contact precautions was influenced by HCP adherence to standard infection prevention and control measures, including hand hygiene and the use of gloves and gowns, which were assumed to reduce CRE transmission. For clarity, admission and discharge processes are not shown. Patients could be admitted in either the non-colonized or colonized state and discharged in either state. Patients with active CRE infection were assumed to remain hospitalized while receiving antibiotic treatment for an average of 10 days. During this treatment period, they either would die due to the infection or survive, in which case they transition to the “detected colonized” state.

Figure 2

Figure 2. Distribution of carbapenem-resistant Enterobacterales (CRE) colonization incidence rates. Each boxplot, drawn using MATLAB’s boxchart function, displays summary statistics: the mean (black filled circles), the median (mid-line of the boxplot), the interquartile range (IQR, defined by the lower and upper quartiles), the whiskers (dashed lines extending beyond the IQR), and the outliers (open circles). Whiskers extend to the smallest and largest values within 1.5 times the IQR from the quartiles. Scenarios are organized by two key factors: drug effectiveness (DE: 25%, 50%, 75%) and patient participation in ICU admission and all-admission screening programs at 50% and 100% rates. A horizontal dashed line, drawn at the baseline mean (y-axis), highlights percent relative reductions in incident CRE colonization rates across scenarios. Vertical solid black lines display the percent reduction in colonization incidence compared to baseline, with numeric labels indicating the mean of 10,000 bootstrap estimates of percent reduction, rounded to one decimal place, for each scenario. Box colors reflect DE levels, while screening-based scenarios are grouped by patient participation rates along the x-axis.

Figure 3

Table 2. Summary statistics of clinical and surveillance testing and drug administration for 50% drug effectiveness over the 1-year analysis periodTable 2 long description.

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