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Comparative effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines among health students, focusing on methodological concerns

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  07 April 2026

Banu Cakir*
Affiliation:
Hacettepe Universitesi Tip Fakultesi , Türkiye
Ahmet Sertcelik
Affiliation:
Ankara Yıldırım Beyazıt Üniversitesi Tıp Fakültesi: Ankara Yildirim Beyazit Univ, Türkiye
Eda Karadogan
Affiliation:
Ministry of Health, Türkiye, Antalya, Türkiye
Hanife Uzar
Affiliation:
Republic of Turkey Ministry of Health: Turkiye Cumhuriyeti Saglik Bakanligi, Türkiye
Mithat Temizer
Affiliation:
Manisa Celal Bayar University: Manisa Celal Bayar Universitesi, Türkiye
Seyma Aliye Kara
Affiliation:
Republic of Turkey Ministry of Health: Turkiye Cumhuriyeti Saglik Bakanligi, Türkiye
Mustafa Enes Ozden
Affiliation:
Republic of Turkey Ministry of Health: Turkiye Cumhuriyeti Saglik Bakanligi, Türkiye
Bilal Buzgan
Affiliation:
Hacettepe University: Hacettepe Universitesi, Türkiye
Damla Ozyurek
Affiliation:
Bandirma Onyedi Eylul Universitesi, Türkiye
Alpaslan Alp
Affiliation:
Hacettepe Universitesi Tip Fakultesi , Türkiye
Asli Pinar
Affiliation:
Hacettepe Universitesi Tip Fakultesi , Türkiye
Duygu Ayhan Baser
Affiliation:
Hacettepe Universitesi Tip Fakultesi , Türkiye
Hilal Aksoy
Affiliation:
Hacettepe Universitesi Tip Fakultesi , Türkiye
Izzet Fidanci
Affiliation:
Hacettepe Universitesi Tip Fakultesi , Türkiye
Nursel Calik Basaran
Affiliation:
Hacettepe Universitesi Tip Fakultesi , Türkiye
Sehnaz Ozyavuz Alp
Affiliation:
Hacettepe Universitesi Tip Fakultesi , Türkiye
Volkan Arslan
Affiliation:
Hacettepe Universitesi Tip Fakultesi , Türkiye
Burcin Sener
Affiliation:
Hacettepe Universitesi Tip Fakultesi , Türkiye
*
Corresponding author: Banu Cakir; Email: banucakir4@gmail.com

Abstract

Introduction:

With emerging variants of SARS-CoV-2, there is an increasing demand for comprehensive data on vaccine effectiveness disaggregated by vaccine type and/or country to frame future pandemic readiness plans.

Design, setting, participants:

We investigated comparative effectiveness (VE) of CoronaVac® and Comirnaty® vaccines among health students, considering potential risk factors. An open, prospective cohort study was conducted to follow participants with valid COVID-19 vaccinations, up to 2 years. Investigations included VE against symptomatic PCR-confirmed COVID-19 infections, along with vaccine-induced humoral immunity (including durability) and potential methodologic threats to conclusive decisions.

Results:

Symptomatic COVID-19 incidence rate was 4.24 (95% CI = 3.69–4.86) per 10,000 person-days among 1133 students (46.6% males) over 478,466 person-days. Taking a primary series/booster with CoronaVac as the reference, a primary series with Comirnaty or a Comirnaty booster protected students up to twenty times early in the pandemic, adjusting for covariates; significance disappeared in the Omicron period, though. Unexpected upsurges in virus-specific antibody levels, starting 3-6 months after the last vaccination when titers decreased to almost nill, suggested that disproportionality in vaccine durability could have led to a bias towards the null in VE estimates, due to mediator role of undetected breakthrough infections.

Conclusion:

Hybrid immunity may differentially deplete the susceptibles in either arm of the study, leading to bias in VE estimations. High infection rate in Omicron period might have augmented this bias, favoring the protective effect of the less potent vaccine. Periodic PCR testing as an integrated measure in future VE studies can avoid such bias.

Information

Type
Original Article
Creative Commons
Creative Common License - CCCreative Common License - BY
This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution and reproduction, provided the original article is properly cited.
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2026. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of The Society for Healthcare Epidemiology of America
Figure 0

Figure 1.Design and flow of the study (first 18 months of the cohort).

Figure 1

Table 1.Distribution of sociodemographic, health- and COVID-19-related characteristics of study participants

Figure 2

Table 2.Distribution of COVID-19-related potential risk factors and corresponding antibody titers at the most recent visit based on case status

Figure 3

Figure 2.Distribution of anti-SARS-COV-2 spike- RBP igG antibodies among students with different vaccination schemes (for all vaccinations, antibody titer measured after at least 14 days following the last vaccine dose/booster are presented). (a) daily COVID-19 cases, (b) daily cases for HU-CoVaCS compared to corresponding cumulative case numbers in Türkiye over corresponding weeks (based on data from WHO) B: Comirnaty (one dose) (n = 3), BB: Comirnaty-2 doses (n = 136), BBB: Comirnaty as primary series with a Comirnaty booster (n = 119); CC: CoronaVac-2 doses (n = 328), CCB: CoronaVac as primary series with a Comirnaty booster (n = 299), CCBB: CoronaVac as primary series with 2 Comirnaty boosters (n = 178), CCBBB: CoronaVac as primary series with 3 Comirnaty boosters (n = 34), CCC: CoronaVac as primary series with a CoronaVac booster (n = 16).

Figure 4

Figure 3.(a) Kaplan Meier curve for COVID-19 hazard for vaccine types during pre omicron period. (b) Kaplan Meier curve for COVID-19 hazard for vaccine types during Omicron period.

Figure 5

Table 3.Symptomatic, PCR-confirmed COVID-19 infection hazard in Pre-Omicron Period (before January 1, 2022)

Figure 6

Table 4.Symptomatic, PCR-confirmed COVID-19 infection hazard in Omicron Period (January 1, 2022 and beyond)

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