The prevalence of mood, anxiety, and substance use disorders has risen in the last decade. It is unclear to what extent this rise is also seen in the first-incidence of these disorders, even though this is relevant for prevention. We provide up-to-date information on the first-incidence of common mental disorders (mood, anxiety, and substance use disorders) and compare this with the first-incidence 12 years ago.

First-incidence of DSM-5 common mental disorders was examined with a slightly modified version of the Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI) 3.0 in 4,688 respondents (18–75 years; interviewed in 2019–2022 and 2023–2024) from the third Netherlands Mental Health Survey and Incidence Study (NEMESIS-3). The CIDI also assessed DSM-IV diagnoses and, therefore, 12-year changes could be examined by comparing first-incidence rates of DSM-IV mental disorders between NEMESIS-3 (3,687 respondents aged 18–64 years) and NEMESIS-2 (5,303 respondents aged 18–64 years; interviewed in 2007–2009 and 2010–2012).

In NEMESIS-3, 11.1% of adults without prior psychopathology experienced a DSM-5 common mental disorder over 3 years. First incidence was similar for any mood disorder (7.1%) and any anxiety disorder (6.9%), but lower for any substance use disorder (3.2%). From 2010-2012 to 2023-2024, the 3-year incidence of any DSM-IV disorder significantly increased from 8.5 to 14.0%. This change remained significant after controlling for differences in sociodemographic characteristics.

The substantial rise in first incidence of mental disorders likely contributes to the previously observed rise in their prevalence. This implicates a need for enhanced preventive measures and early intervention initiatives.