In 2021, Russia and Belarus supplied 41% of EU imports, but following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine and subsequent sanctions, trade with both countries collapsed. EU import demand is estimated by exporting country, and a choke‑price approach is used to recover the trade costs implied by sanctions. The results indicate high implied tariffs on Belarus (43.0%) and Russia (49.4%), while the United States and the rest of the world experienced large implied “subsidies” 70.0%, and 166.2%, respectively. Despite large and statistically significant cross‑price elasticities suggesting substitution toward Ukraine, trade gains accrued primarily to the United States and ROW.
